Rand Country Blog October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Putnam County, NY

The Putnam housing market absolutely soared through the third quarter of 2018, with dramatic increases in both sales and particularly in pricing. Putnam was the only county in the region to experience sales growth this quarter, with transactions rising 3% for houses and 5% for condos. The real story was price appreciation, with prices up across the board: Houses were up 11% on average, 5% at the median, and 8% in the price‑per‑square‑foot, and condos were up 13% on average and at the median, and almost 20% in the price‑per‑square-foot. For the year, the pricing gains are also very strong: up 8% on average and 7% at the median for houses, and up 10% on average and 16% at the median for condos. Going forward, we believe that Putnam is going to continue to strengthen, although we would expect that blistering price appreciation to cool a bit.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on TwitterPinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Orange County, NY

The Orange County housing market soared yet again in the third quarter of 2018, with prices exploding upward. With inventory still very low, and demand high, house prices rose 14% on average, 8% at the median, and 12% in the price‑per‑square‑foot, while condo prices were up 17% on average, 12% at the median, and 14% in the price‑per‑square‑foot. More importantly, after years of frustrating stagnation, we’re finally seeing sustained appreciation trends in Orange County. This was the ninth straight quarter of rising house prices, culminating in a rolling year where prices were up 8% on average, 9% at the median, and 8% in the price‑per‑square‑foot. And we saw the same thing in condos, with the full-year prices up 12% on average, 14% at the median, and 10% in the price‑per‑square‑foot. Going forward, we believe that lack of inventory will continue to hold sales down, but will still drive meaningful price appreciation through the end of 2018 and into next year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on TwitterPinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Rockland County, NY

The Rockland housing market had another strong quarter, with prices up, even while a lack of inventory held back sales growth. Sales of houses were down almost 3% for the quarter, and are now down almost 5% for the year. But that’s more a reflection of a lack of supply, not a lack of demand, evidenced by continuing appreciation, with prices up 6% on average and 7% at the median for the quarter, and now up 6% on average and 7% for the year. We are starting to see signs, though, that rising prices might be tempting more sellers into the market – months of inventory rose almost 11%, the first increase in over six years. Going forward, we expect that buyer demand is strong enough to absorb this additional inventory and still post meaningful price appreciation through the rest of the year and into 2019.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Westchester County, NY

The Westchester housing market held steady in the third quarter of 2018, with a small decline in sales coupled with flat pricing. We believe that the decline in sales comes largely from a shortage of viable inventory, rather than a lack of demand, but it may be that the 2018 tax reform changes have hampered demand in the highest end of the market, increasing the percentage of lower‑priced homes in the mix of properties sold and thereby suppressing price appreciation. That would explain why, for example, average prices are increasing dramatically in the lower‑priced condo (up over 5%) and coop (up almost 4%) markets, as well as the more affordable neighboring counties. That said, tax reform is having only a modest impact on this market, with prices still up slightly for the rolling year. Going forward, we believe that demand is strong enough to overcome the tax concerns and that Westchester will experience a strong end to the year and a robust 2019.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog October 9, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Westchester and Hudson Valley

Despite concerns that the 2018 tax reform law would undermine housing values, Westchester and the Hudson Valley held steady in the third quarter, with prices rising throughout the region and up dramatically in some counties.

Some analysts have expressed concerns about the effects of the 2018 Tax Reform law on our regional housing market. The tax law capped the deductibility of state and local taxes and reduced the mortgage interest deduction, which particularly impacts high‑tax areas, like Westchester and the Hudson Valley. Indeed, those analysts might see evidence for this theory in the third-quarter results, with regional single‑family home sales falling almost 2% from last year, and down in almost every individual county.
For the most part, though, sales are down because of a lack of supply, not a lack of demand. Regional inventory levels have gone down 25 straight quarters, falling from a high of around 16 months to the current six months. Quarter after quarter, inventory went down until we reached a point where we have a shortage of desirable homes for sale. That’s what’s holding back sales – a lack of “fuel for the fire.”
How do we know that falling sales aren’t the result of slackening demand from the impact of tax reform? A couple of reasons:

First, this trend of declining sales predates tax reform. We’ve been tracking falling sales for almost two years, with regional sales down, in five out of the last six quarters, well before the passage of tax reform in late 2017.

Second, sales are down in all markets, not just high‑priced markets. Tax reform would not explain why sales are down even in the lower‑priced markets, where most buyers do not itemize taxes in a way that they’d be affected by changes in deductibility. And yet, quarterly sales were down more in Rockland and Dutchess than they were in Westchester.

Third, prices are up in almost every market segment. Regional average sales prices were up almost 3% for houses and 5% for condos in the third quarter and were up (in some cases dramatically) in every individual county for almost every property type. If tax reform had sapped demand in the market, we’d be seeing flat or declining pricing, not robust appreciation.

All that said, tax reform might be having a small impact on the very high end of the market, where the loss of deductibility for mortgage interest and local taxes hits the hardest. Price appreciation was more pronounced in the lower‑priced markets, with single‑family average prices rising 11% in Putnam, 6% in Rockland, 14% in Orange, and 7% in Dutchess. Meanwhile, Westchester’s single‑family home pricing was up just a tick on average, and only fell 1% at the median. We’re talking about a marginal, not a major, impact. Prices aren’t rising at the rate they are in the lower‑priced markets, they’re basically flat, not falling.

Moreover, inventory is starting to respond to these rising prices. For the first time since 2012, inventory levels went up this quarter, which illustrates fundamental economic market theory: If demand is strong, and supply stays steady (or goes down), prices will go up. And when prices go up, new inventory will come onto the market. That’s what we’re seeing now: After years of decline, single‑family inventory was up in almost every county in the region, stabilizing near that six‑month level that usually signals a balancing market.

Going forward, we believe that the appetite in the market can handle both the impact of tax reform and this increased inventory while still driving continued price appreciation. With strong economic conditions, relatively low‑interest rates (and the specter of rate increases on the horizon), and pricing still at attractive 2004‑05 levels, we expect a robust market through the end of the year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog July 24, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Dutchess County, NY

Pricing in the Dutchess housing market spiked in the second quarter, as low levels of inventory, coupled with high demand, drove prices up. Single‑family home prices rose over 10% on average and 8% at the median for the quarter, with both the average and median now up over 6% for the year. The condo market is a little more mixed, but the overall story is that Dutchess demand is still high, inventory is still low, and as a result, we’re seeing significant pressure on pricing. Going forward, we expect these trends to continue, with stabilizing sales and rising prices through a robust summer and the end of the year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog July 24, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Putnam County, NY

Low levels of inventory in Putnam continued to stifle sales in the second quarter, even while pushing prices up to post‑correction highs. Sales of houses were down over 4% for the quarter, and now down almost 2% for the year, reflecting the lack of available supply on the market. But high levels of demand, coupled with that low inventory, continued to drive price appreciation, with house prices now up over 4% on average and almost 5% at the median for the rolling year. The condo market was even more robust, with sales and prices up sharply. Going forward, we believe that inventory will stabilize as sellers come into the market to take advantage of rising prices, but that we will continue to see strong sales and rising prices at least through the end of the year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog July 24, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Orange County

Pricing in Orange’s housing market exploded again in the second quarter, driven by high demand and low supply. Unlike the other Hudson Valley counties, sales were actually up, with house sales rising 3% for the quarter and 6% for the year. Condo sales were down for the quarter, but were still up almost 10% for the year. The real story, though, was pricing. After years of slow leaks, Orange prices are roaring back, with quarterly house prices up almost 11% on average, 7% at the median, and almost 10% in the price‑per‑square foot. And condo pricing was up over 7% on average, 2% at the median, and almost 11% in the price‑per‑square foot. Going forward, we see these trends continuing through the end of the year, with low supply and high demand driving meaningful price appreciation through a robust summer and fall.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog July 23, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Rockland

Activity in Rockland’s housing market continued to be shackled by low levels of inventory in the second quarter, which drove sales down again, even while pushing prices up sharply. Transactions fell almost 10% for houses and 13% for condos, the largest drops since the market correction almost 10 years ago. As a result, pricing is way up from last year, with house prices rising over 8% on average, almost 6% at the median, and almost 5% in the price‑per‑square foot (condo pricing is more mixed). But we are starting to see signs that rising prices might be attracting more sellers into the market, which should eventually stabilize sales. Going forward, though, we think that high demand and low inventory will continue to stifle sales and drive price appreciation at least through the end of the year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on TwitterPinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog July 23, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Westchester

Westchester’s lack of inventory again held back sales while driving pricing up in the second quarter. Sales fell for the fourth quarter out of the last five, with activity dropping by almost 5% for houses, 13% for coops, and almost 9% for condos. But high levels of demand, coupled with this depleted supply, continued to push the rolling-year average price up: rising about 2% for houses, 4% for coops, and 1% for condos. The supply shortage may be easing, though, with the months of inventory actually rising for both houses and condos for the first time in several years. Going forward, we expect that rising prices will continue to bring sellers into this market, which will probably stabilize sales for the third quarter. But we still think that prices have significant upside potential, simply because of the high levels of demand in the market, relatively low inventory, and good economic conditions.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.