Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Putnam County, New York

 

The Putnam housing market cruised through the second quarter of 2019, with sales up and prices basically flat. Compared to the rest of the region, Putnam was a bit of an outlier, with single-family home sales rising 7% for the quarter and almost 1% for the rolling year – the only county in the region with rising sales. Single-family pricing was a little more mixed: flat on average, up almost 4% at the median, and down 1% in the price-per-square-foot. For the rolling year, though, prices have been generally appreciating. Moreover, the negotiability indicators signaled a rising seller’s market, with days-on-market falling and the listing retention rate up. Going forward, we expect that Putnam will continue to show modest sales growth and price appreciation through the summer and fall.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:39 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Putnam County, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Hudson County, New Jersey

 

After sizzling throughout 2018, the Hudson County housing market continued to slow down in the second quarter of 2019. Sales were down over 6% overall from last year’s second quarter, and now down 6% for the rolling year. But this decline in sales did not have a dramatic effect on pricing, which was up about 4% overall and rising across the board: up 5% for single‑family homes, over 5% for multi‑families, and up 3% for condos. We might be seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT Cap), which particularly affected higher‑income taxpayers, who are more likely to itemize their deductions and feel the pinch. And we are certainly seeing some reverberations from the slowdown of the Manhattan market. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory. Accordingly, we expect to see a relatively robust summer and fall market in Hudson County.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:31 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Sussex County, New Jersey

 

The Sussex market slowed considerably in the second quarter, with sales down even while pricing was more positive. Transactions were down sharply, falling 13% for the quarter and now down over 8% for the rolling year. But the drop in sales clearly did not indicate a lack of demand, with median pricing up over 5% for the quarter and almost 4% for the year. More importantly, inventory has finally come down to manageable levels, even though it’s still not at the 6‑month level that denotes a sellers’ market. Going forward, we believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, prices well below historic highs, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory. So we expect to see continued appreciation and maybe even some sales growth in a robust summer and fall market

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:28 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Essex County, New Jersey

 

Sales in the Essex housing market went up again in the second quarter of 2019, and finally started to drive some meaningful price appreciation. Sales rose over 8% for the quarter, and finished the rolling year up over 5%. And this sustained increase in sales is finally having an impact on pricing, which was up over 2% on average and almost 4% at the median. The rolling year pricing is still relatively flat (down 1% on average, up 2% at the median), but the trend is positive for Essex sellers and homeowners. Still, we might be seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT Cap), which particularly affected higher‑income taxpayers like Essex County homeowners and home buyers, who are more likely to itemize their deductions and feel the pinch. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, prices well below historic highs, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:26 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Morris County, New Jersey

 

The Morris County housing market stumbled through the second quarter of 2019, with both prices and sales down slightly. Transactions were down almost 5% from last year’s second quarter, finishing a rolling year in which they were down almost 4%. Pricing was generally flat, with the average price falling about 1% for the quarter, almost perfectly flat for the rolling year. We might be seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT Cap), which particularly affected higher‑income taxpayers like Morris County homeowners and home buyers, who are more likely to itemize their deductions and feel the pinch. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, prices well below historic highs, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:24 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Passaic County, New Jersey

 

Sales in the Passaic housing market slowed down in the second quarter of 2019, even while strong demand continued to push prices up. We continue to clear signs of a thriving seller’s market. Prices are still going up, with the average price rising almost 1% for the quarter and over 3% for the rolling year. And while relatively low levels of inventory are still holding back sales growth, causing a 6% decline in transactions this quarter, that inventory is starting to creep up as homeowners seeing prices go up are getting tempted into the market. Going forward, we expect that higher levels of inventory will drive more sales growth, but that strong demand will continue to push prices higher. The market fundamentals are strong, with prices still below historic highs, interest rates low, and the economy thriving, so we expect both sales and price growth in the summer and fall markets.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:21 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey

 

Sales growth in the Northern New Jersey housing market was suppressed by both a continued lack of inventory and the impact of the 2018 Tax Reform SALT Cap, but we did see modest but meaningful price appreciation in many county-wide markets. We believe that the market is still poised for both sales and price growth in what will be a strong summer and fall market.

Regional sales were down slightly, but the results varied by county. Regional single‑family sales fell about 3% for the quarter, finishing a rolling year in which they were down a little over 2%. But that cumulative number masked a real divergence in the county results. For example, sales were down in Bergen, Hudson, Passaic, Morris, and Sussex, but up for Bergen condos and Essex.

Similarly, prices were up a tick regionally, but results varied sharply depending on the county. For the region, the average price was up 1.2% for the quarter, finishing a rolling year where they rose by 2.1%. But, again, those cumulative regional results do not really tell the story, since pricing compared to last year’s second quarter varied dramatically by county: prices were up in Hudson, Passaic, and Essex, but down in Bergen, Morris, and Sussex. The rolling year pricing was a little more positive, with most markets showing longer‑term appreciation.

We still believe that this market is poised for significant growth. The sluggishness in sales is not due to a lack of inherent demand, but is being cause by two factors: first, a lack of inventory, which is ticking up but remains at relatively historic lows; and second, the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local taxes (“SALT Cap”), which is impacting buyers who usually itemize their taxes and are skittish of extending themselves. We think that both issues will ease up as homeowners tempted by rising pricing put their homes up for sale, and the SALT Cap gets priced into the market.

Going forward, we think that both sales and prices will go up by the end of the year. We expect the impact of the SALT Cap to get priced into the market, because otherwise the seller market fundamentals are very strong: the economy is growing, interest rates are near historic lows, inventory is relatively low, and homes are still priced well below their highs. Accordingly, we expect a relatively robust spring market throughout the region.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:14 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

Second Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Bergen County, New Jersey

 

The Bergen County housing market was flat through the second quarter of 2019, with both sales and pricing tracking close to last year. Single‑family home sales were down about 2%, while condo sales were up about 2%. Similarly, pricing was mixed, with both single‑family home and condo prices falling about 1% on average. We believe that the market is being hampered by both a lack of viable inventory and the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local tax deductions (the “SALT Cap”), which hits particularly hard in higher‑priced markets like Bergen. Going forward, though, we believe that inventory will slowly rise, and that the SALT Cap impact will eventually get priced into the market. With prices still lower than the height of the market, interest rates near historic lows, and a growing economy, we believe that Bergen is poised for sales and price growth through the summer and fall.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 11:13 am
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

First Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey

The Northern New Jersey housing market slowed a bit in the first quarter of 2019, with sales down and prices flat. But we believe that the market is still poised for sales growth and price appreciation in what will be a relatively robust spring market.

Regional sales were down, but the results varied by county. Regional single-family sales fell about 4% for the quarter, but that cumulative number masked a real divergence in the county results. For example, sales were down in Hudson, Passaic, Morris, and Sussex, but up in Bergen and Essex. The most significant slowdown was in Hudson, where overall sales fell almost 15% from last year’s first quarter, probably due to the sharp downturn in the neighboring Manhattan market.

Similarly, prices were up a tick regionally, but results were much stronger in lower-priced markets. For the region, the average price was up about 0.5% for the quarter, below the yearlong appreciation of 2.2%. But, again, those cumulative regional results do not really tell the story, since price appreciation varied dramatically by county. For the quarter, the average price fell in all the higher-priced markets—Hudson, Bergen, Morris, and Essex– but rose in the lower-priced counties– Passaic and Sussex. (The results were a little stronger if we look at the rolling year, where every market but Essex saw at least modest price appreciation).

Essentially, we are seeing a “tale of two markets,” with price appreciation higher in lower-priced markets and property types. We believe this divergence has been caused by the 2018 Tax Reform’s cap on state and local tax deductions (“SALT Cap”). When the tax code implemented Tax Reform, we speculated that the SALT Cap might have a more significant impact on higher-end markets. Why? Because taxpayers in those markets are more likely to itemize their taxes and thereby feel the pinch of the $10,000 SALT Cap. But in the lower-priced markets, homeowners and buyers are more likely to be at income levels where they tend to take the standard deduction, meaning that the SALT Cap would have little effect on them.

Essentially, the SALT Cap is suppressing sales and price appreciation in the higher-priced markets like Hudson, Bergen, Morris, and Essex, but having little or no impact on lower-priced markets like Passaic and Sussex. Indeed, we are seeing the same thing throughout the metropolitan region – in the northern suburbs of New York City, for example, prices were down in higher-priced Westchester but up in lower-priced markets like Rockland and Orange. The SALT Cap is not devastating these high-end markets – for example, the rolling year average price in the higher-end counties was still up – but it is hampering what would otherwise be a fairly robust seller’s market.

Going forward, we still believe that the market is poised for growth. At some point, we expect the impact of the SALT Cap to get priced into the market, because the seller market fundamentals are otherwise very strong: the economy is growing, interest rates are near historic lows, inventory is relatively low, and homes are still priced well below their highs. Accordingly, we expect a relatively robust spring market throughout the region.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on TwitterPinterest, and Instagram.

Posted on April 15, 2019 at 4:09 pm
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report

First Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Bergen County, NJ

The Bergen County housing market coasted through the first quarter of 2019, with prices flat but sales up modestly. For the quarter, single-family sales rose almost 3%, but the average price was down just a tick. The single-family market has been slowly cruising along for the past year, with little sales growth and only about 1% of price appreciation, which is a little disappointing considering the market fundamentals. We might be seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT Cap), which particularly affected higher-income taxpayers like Bergen County homeowners and home buyers, who are more likely to itemize their deductions and feel the pinch. We expected that the SALT Cap might have an impact on housing, and we’re certainly seeing that throughout the region in higher-priced markets like Bergen and its neighbors in Hudson, Morris, and Westchester County in New York. Indeed, that might explain why the Bergen condo market has been more robust, with rolling year sales up over 3% and prices up 7% — condo home buyers are more likely to claim the standard deduction, rather than itemize, so they’re not affected by the SALT Cap. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, prices well below historic highs, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on TwitterPinterest, and Instagram.

Posted on April 15, 2019 at 3:57 pm
Adam DiFrancesco | Category: In the News, New Jersey, Quarter Market Report