Rand Country Blog • January 22, 2019

Fourth Quarter 2018: Real Estate Market Report – Hudson County, NJ

by Vincent Abbatecola

The Hudson housing market surged yet again in the fourth quarter, with prices rising across the board. Overall sales for the county were down almost 11% from last year’s fourth quarter, with both multi‑family and condo sales falling sharply due to the lack of inventory available on the market. Indeed, for the 2018 year, sales were down 5% overall, falling 9% for multi‑families and 6% for condos, with single‑family homes being the only property type to see an increase, at 5%. But the drop in sales does not indicate a lack of demand, with prices up across the board: quarterly prices were up 14% for single‑family homes, 2% for multi‑families, and almost 7% for condos. And for the year, we’re seeing pretty dramatic price appreciation: single‑family homes up 12%, multi‑families up 12%, and condos up 7%. Going forward, we expect this to continue through a robust winter and spring market, as demand for housing in Hudson remains strong.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog • January 22, 2019

Fourth-Quarter 2018: Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey

by Vincent Abbatecola

Pricing in the housing market in the Northern New Jersey suburbs of New York City continued to appreciate in the fourth quarter of 2018, even while low levels of inventory suppressed sales growth throughout the region.

The regional market continues to suffer from a lack of supply. The number of homes available has settled at levels that generally signal a seller’s market, with fewer than six months of inventory in most of the Northern New Jersey markets. The lack of inventory has been stifling sales growth because the market lacks “fuel for the fire” to meet the existing buyer demand, even while driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.

Because of the lack of inventory, sales were down sharply. For the region, sales were down almost 5% in the quarter, falling in almost all of the counties: down 4% in Bergen, 11% in Hudson, 7% in Passaic, 6% in Morris, and 12% in Sussex. Sales were only up in Sussex and for Bergen condos. And for the 2018 year, sales were down about 1%, and down in most of the counties. That said, sales are now at levels we haven’t seen since the seller’s market of the mid‑2000s, and almost double in many places from the bottom of the market following the correction of 2008‑09.

But these low levels of inventory are also driving meaningful price appreciation. Prices rose sharply for the region, rising almost 5% for the quarter and up in most of the counties: rising 3% in Bergen, 6% in Hudson, 6% in Passaic, 3% in Morris, and 6% in Sussex (down only in Essex). For the year, we saw meaningful price appreciation throughout the region, with the regional price up almost 3%.

Going forward, we expect the seller’s market to continue. With good economic conditions, low interest rates, and attractive pricing, we expect that the Northern New Jersey market will continue to see meaningful price appreciation. This will eventually attract more sellers into the market, perhaps in time to help drive sales growth in the spring market.

Rand Country Blog • October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Hudson County, NJ

by Vincent Abbatecola

The Hudson County housing market surged yet again in the third quarter, with prices rising overall and particularly for multi‑family and condo properties. Overall sales for the county were down almost 8% from last year’s third quarter, with both multi‑family and condo sales falling sharply due to the lack of inventory available on the market. But that lack of supply, coupled with high levels of demand, is having a dramatic impact on pricing. Average prices were up over 8% from last year’s third quarter for all property types, rising over 3% for single‑family homes, 11% for multi‑family, and almost 9% for condos. And for the year, we’re seeing pretty dramatic price appreciation: single‑family homes up 8%, multi‑families up 17%, and condos up 6%. Going forward, we expect this to continue through a robust fourth quarter, and into 2019, as demand for housing in Hudson remains strong.

Rand Country Blog • October 10, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2018 – Northern New Jersey

by Vincent Abbatecola

The housing market in the Northern New Jersey suburbs of New York City cruised through the third quarter of 2018, with strong demand driving meaningful price appreciation, even while low levels of inventory suppressed sales growth throughout the region.

The regional market continues to suffer from a lack of supply. The number of homes available has settled at levels that generally signal a seller’s market, with fewer than six months of inventory in most of the Northern New Jersey markets. The lack of inventory has been stifling sales growth, since the market lacks “fuel for the fire” to meet the existing buyer demand, even while driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.

Because of the lack of inventory, sales were mostly flat. For the region, sales were up just 0.7% in the quarter, and they were mixed in the individual counties: Bergen houses up 1%, Bergen condos up 2%, Hudson down almost 8%, Passaic down a tick, Morris up 3%, Essex up 5%, and Sussex up 2%. That said, sales are now at levels we haven’t seen since the seller’s market of the mid‑2000s, and almost double in many places from the bottom of the market following the correction of 2008‑09.

But these low levels of inventory are also driving meaningful price appreciation. Prices rose about 2% regionally, with dramatic spikes in Hudson 8%, Sussex 8%, and Bergen condos 10%. The other markets were relatively flat or even down slightly (in Morris), but the overall trend is generally positive, with most markets up for the rolling year and the rolling-year regional average price rising over 2%.

We are a little surprised we’re not seeing more meaningful price appreciation throughout the region. Given strong buyer demand responding to a growing economy, reasonably low interest rates, and pricing still at attractive levels (mostly at 2004‑05 levels), we keep expecting some dramatic jumps in pricing. Textbook economics tells us that limited supply coupled with high demand should eventually drive meaningful increases in pricing. But other than Hudson, which is feeding off the Manhattan exile market, the rest of the region is not really appreciating at the level we would expect.

Going forward, we expect the seller’s market to continue. With good economic conditions, low interest rates, and attractive pricing, we expect that the Northern New Jersey market will finish the year strong and drive meaningful price appreciation through 2019.

Rand Country Blog • July 24, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Hudson County, NJ

by Vincent Abbatecola

The Hudson County housing market surged again in the second quarter, with low levels of inventory stifling sales activity but driving a spike in pricing. Overall sales for the county were down about 3%, with both multi-family and condo sales falling sharply due to the lack of inventory available on the market. But that lack of supply, coupled with high levels of demand, is having a dramatic impact on pricing. Average prices were up almost 8% for all property types, rising over 17% for single-family homes, 18% for multi-family, and almost 3% for condos. Going forward, we expect this to continue through a robust summer and fall market, as demand for housing in Hudson remains strong.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog • July 24, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Northern New Jersey

by Vincent Abbatecola

The housing market in the Northern New Jersey suburbs of New York City continued to develop as a fully‑realized seller’s market, with low levels of housing supply shackling sales growth but generally driving price appreciation throughout the region.

The regional market continues to suffer from a lack of supply. The number of homes available has settled at levels that generally signal a seller’s market, with about six months of inventory in most of the Northern New Jersey markets. The lack of inventory has been stifling sales growth, since the market lacks “fuel for the fire” to meet the existing buyer demand, even while driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.

Because of the lack of inventory, sales were mostly flat. For the region, sales were up just 0.3% in the quarter, and they were mixed in the individual counties: Bergen houses up 3%, Bergen condos down 2%, Hudson down 3%, Passaic up 3%, Morris down 4%, Essex up 1%, and only Sussex bucking the trend by rising about 11%. That said, sales are now at levels we haven’t seen since the seller’s market of the mid‑2000s, and almost double in many places from the bottom of the market following the correction of 2008‑09.

But even as low inventory stifles sales growth, it drives meaningful price appreciation. Prices rose about 2% regionally, with dramatic spikes in Hudson (8%), Passaic (6%), and Sussex (7%). Those types of increases are not sustainable, but the longer‑term trends are still meaningful, with regional average prices up about 2% for the rolling year.

Inventory, however, might be stabilizing. Textbook economics tells us that limited supply, coupled with high demand, drives prices up, which is what we’ve seen in the past several years. But that same textbook also teaches us that rising prices eventually attract more sellers into the market, which fuels sales and stabilizes pricing. And that seems to be what we’re seeing now ‒ after several years of sharply declining supply, inventory either flattened out or even rose in some markets.

Going forward, we expect the seller’s market to continue. Stabilizing inventory might drive more sales growth, but we still believe that demand is strong enough to soak up that added supply and still drive meaningful price appreciation. Accordingly, with good economic conditions, low interest rates, and attractive pricing, we expect that the Northern New Jersey market will see rising sales and prices through a robust summer and fall market.

Rand Country Blog • April 11, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 1st Quarter 2018 – Hudson County, NJ

by Vincent Abbatecola

Hudson County’s lack of inventory had its expected impact, driving sales down sharply but prices up dramatically in a strong first quarter. Although overall sales for all property types were up 1.6% from the prior rolling year, they were down 9% from last year’s first quarter, dropping for the first time in over three years. They were down for all property types, falling about 7% for single‑family and multi‑family homes, and over 10% for condos, simply because we don’t have enough inventory to meet demand. But lots of buyers chasing fewer homes had its expected impact on average prices, which spiked across the board: rising over 16% for single‑family, over 21% for multi‑family, and over 11% for condos. That kind of price appreciation is not sustainable, but even the yearlong trends are pretty impressive: up 5% for single-family, 15% for multi-family, and 5% for condos. The Hudson market, bolstered by demand emanating out of Manhattan, is simply on fire, and we expect that to continue for a torrid spring.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.

Rand Country Blog • April 11, 2018

Real Estate Market Report: 1st Quarter 2018 – Northern New Jersey

by Vincent Abbatecola

The housing market in the Northern New Jersey suburbs of New York City has become a fully‑realized seller’s market, with declining inventory stifling sales growth while driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.

The regional market continues to suffer from a lack of inventory. The number of homes available for sale compared to last year fell sharply in every market in the region. At the current absorption rate, we are now down to well under six months of inventory in every county for single‑family homes (other than Sussex), which usually denotes a seller’s market.

This lack of inventory is holding back sales. While regional transactions were up 3% for the year, they were down over 3% for the first quarter, and quarterly sales fell in most of the counties. We saw this most acutely in Bergen, where quarterly condo sales were down over 13%, and in Hudson County, where sales fell over 7% for single‑family and multi‑family homes, and over 10% for condos. But this isn’t a demand problem ‑‑ demand is strong everywhere in the region. This is more of a supply problem ‑‑ we simply don’t have enough “fuel for the fire.”

But with all this demand chasing fewer homes, prices are up significantly across the region. The regional average sales price was up over 5% in the quarter, rising for every county and property type, particularly in the markets closest to the city: Bergen was up 1% for single‑families and 19% for condos, and Hudson was up 6% for single‑family, 21% for multi‑family, and 11% for condos. This type of double‑digit appreciation is not sustainable, but the long‑term trend for the rolling year is still very positive, up about 3% for the region and rising in every county except Sussex.

Going forward, this is what a seller’s market looks like. Low levels of inventory will continue to hold sales back even while driving prices up. At some point in 2018, this price appreciation will attract more sellers into the market, which will increase supply, bring sales up, and maybe moderate price increases. But that will not happen right away, so we expect a spring market with even lower levels of inventory, which will stifle sales growth but continue to drive robust price appreciation.