The Regional housing market in the New York City metro area slowed considerably in the first quarter of 2023, with sales falling sharply throughout the region even while prices often continued to climb to historic heights. Going forward, we expect both sales and prices to stabilize near last year’s levels for the spring market and for the rest of the year.
– Joe Rand, Chief Creative Officer at Howard Hanna | Rand Realty
Regional Market Overview
Sales continue to fall, dropping below pre-pandemic levels: Closed sales fell in every county within the report and were down dramatically for each region – falling 31% in Westchester and the Hudson Valley, 33% in Northern New Jersey, 24% in the Bronx, and 33% in Fairfield County. Similarly, pending sales that went into contract during the quarter, which provide a leading indicator of future closings, were also down, falling in each county and in each region.
We continue to see a severe lack of inventory throughout the region: We measure inventory by looking at the average number of homes that we sell each month and then calculating how many months it would take to sell out the current stock of homes for sale. According to industry standards, six months of inventory marks a “balanced market” – anything less, and we’re in a seller’s market.
Going forward, we believe that sales and prices will stabilize near 2022 levels for the rest of the year: We certainly think that we’re seeing the last of these dramatic year-on-year sales declines that we’ve had for the last four quarters. That’s not because we believe that the market is going to significantly strengthen, but only because we will be measuring off a much lower baseline, not off the strongest market in history. Accordingly, we believe that the market will hold to that 2013-2015 era level of sales, with low levels of inventories propping prices up near their current levels through the end of the year.
If you have any questions about the current state of the real estate market, please get in touch with your preferred Howard Hanna | Rand Realty Real Estate Agent
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