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So What’s Going on in the Bergen County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Bergen County housing market continued to expand in the fourth quarter, with both sales and prices up. For the calendar year, Bergen saw a solid increase in sales and modest but measurable price appreciation.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales finished the year strong, with sales up almost 8% for the quarter and over 10% for the calendar year. This marked the fifth straight quarter of year-on-year sales increases. Indeed, we are starting to see transactions at “seller market” levels, with the 6,103 calendar year sales higher than any year since 2006.
Prices. With these sustained increases in buyer demand, we’re also seeing consistent, if modest, appreciation in pricing. Prices were up for the quarter, rising almost 1% on average and 5% at the median. And, for the year, prices were basically flat on average, with a more robust 3.4% increase at the median. We’re still seeing pricing at non-inflation-adjusted 2004 levels, about 15% below the height of the market in 2006, but we’re moving in the right direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators implied that sellers might be gaining a bit of leverage with buyers. In the quarter, the average days-on-market fell sharply, dropping almost 13%, so homes were getting into contract more quickly. Similarly, sellers were becoming slightly more demanding on pricing, with the listing retention rate closing on 96%.
Condominiums. The Bergen condo market was up sharply, with sales rising almost 16% for the quarter and over 5% for the year. Pricing was mixed, with the average up for both the quarter and the year but the median down. We expect that if buyer demand continues to grow, it will start to drive meaningful price appreciation in this entry-level market.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a seller’s market. Buyer demand is strong, which is driving up sales and starting to have a meaningful impact on pricing. With pricing close to 2004 levels, rates near historic lows, and the economy relatively stable, we expect demand to stay strong through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for the Northern New Jersey Region for 2015Q4
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished 2015 in a flourish, with sharp increases in sales and emerging signs of meaningful price appreciation. As 2016 begins, the region seems to be moving into a fully-realized seller’s market that will be characterized by declining inventory, increasing sales, and rising prices.
Sales were up over 8% for the region, rising in every county in the Report. Closings have now been trending up for about five years, ever since the market stabilized after the correction precipitated by the financial crisis of 2008-09. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid-2000’s, the number of homes sold in 2015 was about 40% higher than at the bottom of the market.
Although prices were basically flat, they showed signs of emerging “green shoots.” The regional sales price was up less than 1%, but it did mark the third straight year of rising prices, even though the increases have been marginal. On the other hand, pricing is now about 8% higher than at the bottom of the market, so the trend is generally positive. Interestingly, pricing was stronger in the middle of the market, with mid-priced counties like Passaic generally faring a little better than higher-priced areas like Bergen or Morris.
Most importantly, we are starting to see a tightening of inventory. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. So, for example, if we have 1,000 homes for sale and we close about 100 sales a month, we say that’s about 10 months of inventory. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. Well, right now, we’re starting to see markets that are under 10 months of inventory, with some trending toward six months, signaling that we are moving into a tighter market.
Going forward, we believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, and at some point that increased buyer demand is going to start driving down inventory and driving up pricing. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we expect that the region will experience rising sales and prices through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
Editor’s Note: We are delighted to present this comprehensive Report on the Northern New Jersey housing market for the first time. Although we have been providing reports to our clients on the Bergen, Passaic, and Morris County markets for several years, we are now expanding our focus to also cover Hudson, Essex, and Sussex Counties.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Dutchess County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Dutchess finished the year strong, with a nice increase in sales activity coupled with the first small signs of meaningful price appreciation. For the year, sales were up sharply while prices were basically flat.
Sales. Dutchess County single-family home sales surged again in the fourth quarter, with transactions up 11% from last year. This marked the fifth quarter in a row with year-on-year sales increases, ending a year where closings were up almost 25%. Indeed, the 2,140 yearly sales represented the highest calendar year total since 2006, at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Prices. For the first time, we are starting to see some “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess, with both average and median prices up, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. For the calendar year, average prices were down a tick while the median was basically flat, but we believe that the sustained increases in buyer activity we’re seeing in Dutchess are bound to have an impact on pricing in 2016.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up to almost 95%. And the days-on-market remains down below six months for the year, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly. As sellers gain negotiating leverage, we would expect prices to go up.
Condominiums. The condo market was robust, with sales up over 31% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and up over 20% for the year. And although prices were down sharply for the year, they spiked this quarter, indicating that we might be seeing odd fluctuations from outliers in a relatively thin market.
Going forward, we believe that with a stable economy, interest rates near historic lows, pricing at 2004 levels, and increasing buyer demand, Dutchess is poised for meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Activity in Putnam surged in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply, hitting levels we have not seen in over ten years. And although prices took a dip in the quarter, they were relatively flat for the year.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the fourth quarter, rising almost 12% from last year and up almost 21% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for four years, with closings up for six straight quarters and 14 out of the last 15. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 918 calendar sales being the most since 2005.
Prices. Pricing was disappointing, with the quarterly price down across the board after a robust showing in the third quarter. Indeed, for the year, prices were down just slightly, after rising for the past two calendar years.
Negotiability. The good news for prices came in the inventory numbers, which were down sharply. The months-of-inventory fell almost 21% from last year, down to below 9.0 months for the first time in over 10 years. With inventory tightening, we would expect negotiability to decline, which would tend to drive prices up as buyers chase fewer opportunities and homes sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly up, rising over 22% for the quarter and over 30% for the year. In this case, though, the surge in activity has already been felt in the pricing, with the average up over 11% for the quarter and over 9% for the year.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand coupled with a declining inventory are likely to drive some meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Orange County surged again in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over ten years, but this rising demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing.
Sales. Orange County sales spiked again, rising 20% from the fourth quarter of last year and up 29% for all of 2015. We have now seen sustained sales growth for more than three years, with transactions up five quarters in a row and 14 out of the last 15. Indeed, we are now seeing sales at historically high levels, with the 2,843 yearly sales the most in any calendar year since 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Unfortunately, we have not yet seen these sustained increases in buyer demand have an impact on pricing, with the average and median price both finishing the year down from 2014. Prices are now down to 2002-03 levels, having retained the price appreciation enjoyed from 1998-2003, but giving back everything in the “bubble years” from 2004-07.
Negotiability. We measure “negotiability” by looking at the inventory on the market, how quickly homes are selling, and how much sellers are discounting off their last listed price. By those measures, the only clear indication of increasing seller leverage is in the listing inventory, which fell to 10.0 months-of-inventory, the lowest level we have seen in about 10 years. If inventory continues to tighten, we would expect that buyers chasing reduced opportunities will drive prices up.
Condominiums. The condo market also surged, rising 20% for the quarter and up 28% for the year. Even with demand strong, though, we’re seeing even more pressure on prices in the condo market, with prices down again for the quarter and the year. With a narrow gap (about $80,000) between single-family and condo prices, and with rates at their current levels, many entry-level buyers can afford to stretch to get into a single-family home. That’s having a depressing effect on condo prices, and it won’t get better until single-family home prices start to rise.
Going forward, we believe that demand will continue to drive sales up through a robust spring market, but expect that we will need to see continued tightening in the inventory to drive any meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Rockland sales surged again in a torrid end to 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years and prices showing meaningful signs of appreciation.
Sales. Rockland sales were up sharply, rising 26% from the fourth quarter of 2015 and up over 20% for the calendar year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over three years, with transactions up for the last five quarters and 13 out of the last 14. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 1,830 yearly sales the largest calendar year total since 2004.
Prices. The Rockland average sales price rose in 2015 for the third straight year, up over 3% after more modest increases in 2013 and 2014. Although prices are still a long way from recouping the 25% plunge from 2008-09, and are still at 2004 levels (without adjusting for inflation), pricing is definitely moving in a positive direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were a little mixed, but the inventory numbers were startling. As of the close of 2015, Rockland had about 6.7 months of single-family inventory, the lowest level we have seen in over 10 years and tantalizingly close to the six-month level that signals a “tight” market. Similarly, the listing retention rate hit 96% for the first time since the market correction in 2008, indicating that sellers are gaining leverage when negotiating to get their asking price with buyers.
Condos. The condo market was not quite as robust, with sales up slightly for the quarter, but flat for the year. Prices were up on average, though, and inventory fell to about 7.4 months, so we might be seeing the beginning of some meaningful price appreciation in this entry-level market.
Going forward, we expect that Rockland is going to show signs of a fully realized seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows continuing to drive meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Westchester activity surged in the fourth quarter, with sales up sharply for both single-family homes and condominiums, even while prices remained stubbornly soft.
Sales. Residential rose sharply, up over 13% from last year and finishing the calendar year up almost 8%. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for four full years, with year-on-year transactions going up in 15 out of the last 17 quarters. For the 2015 year, Westchester closed over 5,700
single-family homes, the highest calendar year total since 2005, at the height of the seller’s market.
Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down across the board, finishing a year in which the average price dropped over 3%. While that was disappointing to Westchester homeowners, we note that prices got a little ahead of themselves in 2014, spiking 7% in one year, and the average price is still about 4% higher than it was in 2013.
Negotiability. Although the days-on-market and listing retention rates were basically flat for the quarter and the year, we did see a sharp decline in inventory levels, with the “months-of-inventory” level falling to 5.1 in the quarter and 7.1 for the rolling year – the lowest levels we have seen in over ten years. (In comparison, we had over 17 months of inventory in the middle of 2009, at the bottom of the market).
Condos & Coops. Activity in the condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply but prices down. Inventory levels have really dropped for this entry-level market, though, with condos falling all the way to 3.9 months of inventory.
Going forward, we believe that the Westchester market is poised to transition to a full-blown seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows driving meaningful price appreciation through what will be a robust spring market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q4
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market finished 2015 strong, with another surge in activity that drove sales up almost 17% for the year. And although this sustained increase in buyer demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing, declining levels of inventory are now signaling that meaningful price appreciation is imminent.
In other words – welcome to the seller’s market! As we have noted before in this Report, our housing market tends to run in approximately 15-year cycles from the beginning of a seller’s market to the end of a buyer’s market. We saw this cycle play out from 1981-1997, with prices and activity rising for about seven years through most of the 1980s (the “seller’s market”) and then falling for about eight years from 1989-1997 (the “buyer’s market”). And we saw it again in another 15-year period from the seller’s market that started in the late 1990s, ran through the crash of 2008-09, and then transitioned to the buyer’s market that ran through the past few years.
Well, as we come into 2016, we are now on the cusp of a new cycle, a seller’s market that has been slow to develop over the past few years, but is now showing real signs of taking off. Here are some of the reasons why:
First, sales activity has now been generally up for over four years. Year-on-year sales have now gone up for 14 out of the past 16 quarters, culminating in almost 13,500 single-family sales this year – the highest total we have seen since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005. By comparison, yearly regional closings routinely fell below the 10,000 sale mark after the market correction in 2008.
Second, inventory levels have dropped significantly, with some markets going below the crucial six-months-of-inventory mark. We measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, which we calculate by taking the number of homes on the market and dividing them by the average number of homes that are selling every month. So, if we have 1,000 homes on the market, and we are selling about 100 homes on average every month, we say that we have about 10 “months of inventory.” According to industry standards, about six months of inventory signals a “balanced” market: anything less, and buyers chasing scarcity are likely to create bidding wars that will drive prices up. And for the first time in about 10 years, we’ve seen one of our markets go under six months of inventory, with Westchester single-family homes at about 5.1 and condos at about 3.9. The other markets are above six months, but they are definitely trending downward and are hitting levels we have not seen since the last seller’s market.
Third, as a result of declining inventory and rising demand, we are starting to see some “green shoots” in pricing at the county level. It doesn’t look like much, particularly since the overall regional price fell this year due to some regression in Westchester, but we are seeing a slight upward trend in most of the counties over the past several years. It takes time for changes in activity to impact pricing, but basic economics tells us that four years of rising sales coupled with a declining inventory should drive prices up.
Going forward, we expect that 2016 will mark the clear beginning of a fully realized seller’s market. The economy is in reasonably good shape, interest rates are still near historic lows, and homes are now priced pretty attractively given that they’re still at 2003-04 levels without adjustments for inflation. So we see no reason why buyer demand would fall off from its current levels. And unless we see a flood of new inventory hitting the market, those buyers are going to be chasing a declining number of homes for sale, which is likely to drive prices up in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
How to Manage a Multigenerational Household
Sometimes, events may occur that will either cause you and your family to move in with your parents, or have your parents move in with you. A living arrangement such as this can benefit everyone because there will be more people in a home to take care of it. Having multiple generations in your house will help bring your family closer, and there are several ways how you can make this arrangement work.
Having another generation of family members move into a home is a significant change, so make sure you and your children know why this is taking place. The reasons may include unexpected expenses, job loss, working parents who need grandparents to look after children, or maybe it’s the ability to afford nicer things when multiple employed family members live together. Whatever the reason may be, make sure everyone understands the need for such a transition, so as to make the change somewhat easier for everyone involved. It may take the younger members of the family to get use to this, but if you keep them informed with what’s going on, they will come to terms with the new housing arrangement.
The first thing you should do is set some boundaries, particularly in the upbringing of your children. I know your parents will help you take care of them, but if you want to be the one who disciplines them, make sure your parents know early on. You should also let your parents know what’s appropriate for your children, be it television shows, activities, snacks, and bedtimes. Doing so will let your parents know what you expect from your children, and you will have the peace of mind knowing your parents are taking care of your children the way you want them to. In order to avoid confrontations, you should bring up these expectations as soon as your immediate family and parents begin living together.
When another generation moves into a home, there may be privacy concerns since you have more people living with you. This is to be expected because everyone is trying to have their own space, and sometimes, people will feel like their privacy is being invaded. Even though you all love each other, it’s perfectly normal that someone may get on your nerves when residing in close quarters with you. In order to combat any tension that may arise between you and your family, make sure everyone is given time and space to relax in the house. You won’t be offending anyone by taking some time to yourself, because everyone has felt the need to be alone one time or another. If there’s too much going on in the house and you’re unable to relax, go outside for a refreshing stroll, ride a bike, see a movie, go to a friend’s house, or do anything else if you want to get away for a bit.
If your parents move into your home and are still ambulatory, ask them if they wouldn’t mind helping with some household chores; or, if you move into your parents’ house, you should offer to take up some of the housework. Since you have more people living in a house, the upkeep will be less of a burden on everyone because there will others taking on some of the responsibility. At the start of the new arrangement, your whole family should sit down and discuss how each person is going to help out around the house. Divvy up the chores by asking others which ones they prefer to be responsible for, and depending on how old your parents are, make sure they are physically capable of doing the chores they choose.
Set aside some time for the family to enjoy some activities together. With three generations living under one roof, everyone most likely has different schedules, so it can sometimes be difficult to dedicate time to which the family can relax and enjoy each other’s company, outside of having dinner together. You should look at everyone’s schedules and figure out a when everyone will have some free time, and you can then either plan a trip to the park, a relaxing walk, a movie night, a game night, or anything else that will allow your family to unwind together and have fun. Dedicating some family time to your week will give everyone something to look forward to and will help in strengthening the bonds between everyone in the house.
When multiple generations are living together, there will be times when a family member thinks their way of doing things is better, resulting in a quarrel. Whenever something like this happens, or any other kind of disagreement, you must always remember to be respectful. Yes, family members tend to have a dispute from time to time and display different opinions on certain matters; that’s perfectly normal. But, if this happens, just calmly sit down with each other and work out the issue. I know each generation in the home will be set in their ways when it comes to certain aspects of maintaining the household, but when you’re all living together, respect and collaboration are important in settling arguments.
Having multiple generations live together will have its good days and its bad days. But, in the end, it will work out for the better. With additional family members residing in a home, there will be plenty of help to go around in raising your children and maintaining the house. Although it will take a bit of time to adjust to a change such as this, just remember you all love each other, and living together will not only provide the opportunity for everyone to pitch in and make it easier to take care of the house, but it will also give your family the chance to create new memories to share.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
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Home-Improvement Projects for the Winter
If you live on the east coast, you just got through the major snowstorm that swept across the region last weekend, with some areas even getting over two feet of snow. Hopefully by now, you have finished your shoveling and are able to get in and out of your house without much trouble. In the winter, you may feel compelled to just stay inside during your downtime as a way to limit your interaction with the cold weather. While you’re spending all of that time inside, it may be wise to use this as an opportunity to complete some home-improvement projects, all of which will especially come in handy if you plan on selling your house in the spring.
Seeing as it’s winter, the first thing that probably comes to mind when considering home improvement is your heating. One thing you should think about installing in your home is a programmable thermostat. This will also save you money on your heating bills, and it’s also a very convenient device because you’re able to program the thermostat so it uses less heat when you’re not a home. Some models even allow you to program the thermostat from your smartphone or tablet, so if you want to make any adjustments, you’ll be able to do so right at your fingertips.
When focusing on heating, you may also want to consider improving the insulation of your house, a task that won’t leave your wallet weeping and will make your home greener. Because heat rises, you want to make sure you outfit your home so it can combat the cold temperatures. You can do so by placing rolls of insulation in your attic, basement, and any little crawl spaces you may have. The last thing you want during the winter is heat escaping from your house, so make sure to place an adequate amount of insulation in the appropriate parts of your home in order to reach full effectiveness.
If the winter is going to be influencing you to stay inside, you’ll want as much room as possible in which to move around, so you should take some time to de-clutter your home. Ever since your last foray into spring cleaning, you have probably accumulated more stuff you may not need in your home. In this case, go through your closets, basement, attic, and any other storage spaces you may have, and then divide everything up by what you want to keep, discard, and donate. Not only is this an easy home-improvement project to get done while stuck inside, but it will also give you a jump start on this year’s spring cleaning!
In terms of redecorating, you may be struck with the desire to give your walls a fresh coat of paint. Since you’ll probably be spending a lot of time behind the walls of your house, you might as well give them a burst of color to combat the white and grey of the winter season. I know you won’t be having any windows open during the season, so you may be worried about the paint fumes sticking around inside. But, as long as the paint is waterborne and environmentally friendly, there will be very few fumes. And, if you don’t want to go the painting route, but still want to spruce up your walls, you can go for some wallpaper. Wallpaper comes in all sorts of designs, and choosing the right design can certainly add some liveliness to your house in the dead of winter.
Although the days start to become longer at the start of winter, you still have the sun setting before 5:30 for most of the season, decreasing the amount of natural light that comes into your house. To brighten up your home during the early nightfall, think about adding some more lights in your house. If you’re spending a lot of time in your home during the winter, you should have it light enough so you can enjoy the surroundings of your house. For me, one of the most relaxing things to do during our coldest season is to unwind in a well-lit living room, so add enough lighting that will be comfortable for when you return home from a day at work and want to take it easy on the couch. Of course, you’ll feel even better if you install some LED lightbulbs. Yes, they do cost more than regular bulbs, but they last longer and use less energy, so you’ll be saving money in the long run.
If you want to get some remodeling done, consider doing it to your kitchen or bathroom. Just like painting your walls, a task such as this will take quite a bit of time, which will help take your mind off the incessant cold and winter precipitation outside. Thinking about and choosing the different paint colors, tile designs, and appliances that can be included in your kitchen and/or bathroom can be a lot of fun and will get you stoked to finally begin bringing your designs to life. Once you’re finished with your remodeling project, you can celebrate the fact that when spring rolls around and all of the snow has melted, you can shift your focus to sprucing up the outside of your home for the warmer weather.
Although winter is about halfway through, you still have plenty of time to do some worthwhile home-improvement projects that will benefit your house for the rest of the season. During this time when you don’t want to go outside unless it’s necessary, doing some of these tasks around your house will keep you active and occupied, which is something we all need when confined indoors during these cold months. Just decide what you want to get done, and then start working!
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
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