Rand Country Blog October 9, 2015

How to Prepare Your House for a Matterport Tour

unnamedIt’s an exciting time for Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty as we continue to conduct Matterport tours for our Distinctive Collection properties. Just like we discussed back in March, the Matterport 3D camera is making a significant splash in the real estate industry, as the technology allows 360-degree scans of rooms to be taken throughout a house. Once everything is uploaded online, potential buyers can take a virtual tour and get a more in-depth view of a certain house. If you would like a Matterport tour to be done for your house, there is some preparation required for the homeowner prior to having a Matterport taken.

Do you have any pets? One thing we implore you to do is find a comfortable place for your pets to remain while the Matterport photographer is on the job. We ask this because, if animals are roaming around during the photography process, there’s a chance they will appear in the shots and distract from the smooth flow of the tour. Also, you don’t want a pet of a fairly large size to knock over the Matterport camera and damage it. It’s best to take the pets out of the house while the Matterport photographer is at work; but, if you decide to keep your pet in the house during this time, place it in an area of the house where they will be out of the way of the photographer.

Put away any items or personal information you do not want photographed because a Matterport camera has nine lenses and will capture EVERYTHING. Some items you may want to put away are family photos, artwork, jewelry, etc. In order to create the fullest tour possible, the photographer goes around to every room and hallway, so you have to make sure you conceal anything you might not want to show up on the tour.

Please clean and stage all of the rooms and hallways in your house. It shouldn’t be the responsibility of the Matterport photographer to do these tasks. The house should be staged before the Matterport photographer arrives so he/she can be ready to work as soon as they walk in the door. If there are a lot of mirrors in the house, the photographer will also need time to figure out how he will photograph that area so his reflection and the camera are not captured.

The Matterport is a significant step forward for technology in the real estate industry. In order for your house to experience the full benefit of a Matterport virtual tour, it’s important you thoroughly prepare your house for the Matterport photographer so he/she can focus on capturing the charm of your house. Remember, when you’re selling a beautiful and luxurious home, you want to present it in the best way possible. With a little help from you in making the photographer’s job easier, you will certainly appreciate what a Matterport tour can do for your house.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog October 9, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3

image002The Westchester real estate market cooled a bit in the third quarter, if only in comparison to the torrid pace set earlier in the year. Sales were up, but just slightly, and prices were a little soft compared to 2014.

Sales. Single-family sales were up slightly, rising 5.7% from the third quarter of last year, and are now up 4.9% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for almost four years, with year-over-year transactions going up in 14 out of the last 16 quarters. And sales totals are slowly returning to seller market levels, with the 2,060 quarterly closings the highest since 2003 and the 5,570 yearly sales the highest since 2006.

Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down slightly, with the average down 2.6%, the median down 0.3%, and the price-per-square-foot down 0.6%. For the year, prices are more mixed, with the average down just under 1% and the median and price-per-square foot up slightly. We do not think this is anything to worry about – prices spiked prematurely in 2014, rising almost 7% in one year, so they’re easing just a bit now.

Negotiability. The listing retention and days-on-market indicators both indicated that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage. Homes are starting to sell for closer to the asking price, with listing retention up to almost 98%, and they’re selling more quickly, with the days-on-market now down to under 5 months.

Condos & Coops. The condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply and prices generally rising. Activity was way up, much more than with single-family homes, with coop sales rising 12.3% and condo sales up 21.6% from last year. This is consistent with what we saw across the region, with relatively stronger growth in the lower-priced markets.

Going forward, we expect that the Westchester market will continue to outpace sales levels from last year, and that prices will eventually start to gather momentum. With inventories tightening and interest rates near historic lows, we believe that the market is poised to finish the year strong.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog October 9, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q3

image001The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged forward in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up dramatically throughout the region. More importantly, several counties showed signs of “green shoots” of meaningful price appreciation, reflecting the impact of the sustained increases in buyer demand that we’ve seen over the past few years.

Home sales continued to spike, rising 19% throughout the region. This continued a trend we’ve been tracking for several years, with year-over-year regional sales now up for four out of the last five quarters and 12 out of the last 14. And the trend was widespread, with sales up in every county in the Rand Report: rising 6% in Westchester, 24% in Putnam, 27% in Rockland, 32% in Orange, and 47% in Dutchess. As you can see, sales growth was strongest in the lower-priced markets, which was also true within each county, where sales condo markets generally outpaced single-family homes.

Indeed, we’re now seeing sales at “seller market” levels. The 4,500 single-family regional sales were the highest quarterly total since 2005, and the 13,000 rolling year transactions were the highest since 2007. To put this in perspective, those 13,000 rolling year transactions are about 20% below the 16,000-sale rate at the very height of the seller’s market in 2004-05, but about 60% higher than the 8,000-sale rate we experienced at the very bottom of the market in 2008-09. When it comes to transactional levels, we’re a lot closer to 2005 than 2009.

These sustained increases in buyer demand might be starting to impact pricing. Pricing was relatively mixed, with average prices up in Putnam, Rockland, and Orange, but down in Westchester and Dutchess. This is obviously nothing to get too excited about, but it’s still noteworthy that most of the counties in the Report are starting to see “green shoots” or price appreciation. (Note that the regional price fell about 6%, but that’s only because the relative strength in the lower-priced counties changed the mix of properties sold.)

We believe it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing meaningful price appreciation. As we have said before, it takes time for changes in market activity to impact market psychology. Back in the last seller’s market, sales fell for almost three years before we started to see prices start to go down. And while we’ve now seen over three years of increasing sales activity, we expect that buyers are still skeptical about pricing based on their vivid memories of the market correction of 2008-09. But basic economics tells us that when inventory is stable, and demand is going up, pricing is bound to increase eventually.

Going forward, we expect the market to finish the year strong, with sustained buyer demand eventually driving meaningful price appreciation by the spring market of 2016. With pricing in most of the counties at non-inflation-adjusted 2003-04 levels, rates near historic lows, and a stabilized economy, we believe it’s just a matter of time before we enter a fairly robust seller’s market characterized by increasing demand, narrowing inventory, and rising prices.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog September 18, 2015

Removing the Mysteries Behind Co-Ops and How They Work

Hazy Skyline“Co-op,” which is short for “housing cooperative,” is one of those real estate terms that I have heard about in passing, but never really had a full understanding of what it meant. I knew a co-op was some kind of apartment, but that’s about it. If you have never owned a co-op, there’s the possibility that your understanding of what it is might be a little vague. This week, we will talk about what a co-op is and the pros and cons of living in one. Afterwards, you will leave here with an extra nugget of useful real estate knowledge!

Unlike a condominium, a co-op is owned by a corporation, which means that you’re not buying actual property, but are instead buying shares of the corporation. Typically, the size of your apartment correlates with how many shares you have bought. Because everyone who lives in a co-op owns shares within the corporation, they are usually concerned about who the building does and does not allow to live there. If you don’t meet the standards and requirements set by the co-op board, then you will not be given an apartment.

Now that you have an understanding of what a co-op is, we will now go over the three types. Before you look into any co-op, it’s important that you know the differences between each type. First, there are market-rate co-ops, which are treated similar to most standard residential properties. If you live in this type of co-op, you are permitted to sell your shares whenever you want and for how much money you want.

The second kind is a limited equity co-op, which is mostly meant to attract those who are looking for affordable housing. For these co-ops, there is a limit on how much equity you can earn in your home, and this prevents you from selling your share for a considerable profit. This is meant to help the co-op communities remain affordable.

The third type of co-op is group equity, which is also known as zero equity. In these co-ops, you don’t gain any equity in your home, but instead pay rental rates that are below market value.

Of course, whenever you look for new housing, one of the things always on your mind is affordability, and when you consider a co-op, affordability is possible because, compared to a condo, co-ops are usually less expensive. When you live in a larger co-op, you won’t have any responsibilities regarding upkeep. In these co-ops, a paid crew takes care of all maintenance, repairs, and security. It is for this reason that older buyers are drawn to the bigger co-ops because they know they won’t have to stress over taking care of the building’s exterior. However, smaller co-ops are usually self-managed, so you handle things like shoveling snow, but benefit from lower maintenance costs. Both large and small co-ops have their perks, so choose whichever size works best for you.

A main detractor of trying to move into a co-op is getting through the approval process. Before the co-op board hands you your keys, you have to be interviewed and provide documentation that may include tax records from the past several years. Similar to if you were looking to move into a regular house, doing so for a co-op has its own share of work.

If you have dreamt about moving into a new space with the desire to renovate, it won’t be easy if you move into a co-op. In this scenario, you have to discuss possible renovations with the board and see if your plans meet their approval. After going through the interviews with the board when trying to get accepted into the building, I’m sure one of the last things you want to do is go in front of the board for more discourse.

Although co-ops are mostly found in cities, one of the best parts about them is that they come in numerous sizes and types, such as single-family homes, student housing, senior housing, garden apartment, special-needs housing, and more. Whatever you desire in a co-op, odds are that you’ll find one that will suit you. With the many options you have, your co-op search will be easier and more fun.

Now that you have a better understanding of what a co-op is, you’ll know what to look for if you ever consider moving into one. Co-ops have their benefits and drawbacks, so you have to think carefully about what exactly you want yours to include. Going forward, if you ever want to move, you will feel comfortable adding a co-op to your list of possibilities because of what you have learned. Knowledge is great, isn’t it?

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

 

Sources

www.huffingtonpost.com

www.bankrate.com

www.realtor.com

www.hgtv.com

Rand Country Blog September 11, 2015

Home Buying During the Back-to-School Season

Child_Home_From_School_0011We’re already at the end of the second week of September, and the new academic year is in full swing. Parents are adjusting their schedules to fit with their children’s extracurriculars, getting used to an empty nest if their children are starting college, finishing up putting away all of the summer paraphernalia, or if you have recently moved into a new home, you’re probably getting ready for your child to venture into a new school district. If none of these apply to you, and you’re looking to purchase a new home, this is a great time of year to do so.

For families who are moving with young children, switching your child to a new school district is one of the more significant changes you will make upon moving. It also makes your move more of a time-sensitive matter because you want to move to your new home before the academic year begins. When moving before the start of a school year, your child will have a fresh start at a new school, instead of being transitioned into a school that already has its academic year in progress.

For other homebuyers, this is a great time of year to look for a new home because there will be a smaller buyer pool as a result of decreased competition, seeing as families who wanted to move before the school year began have already done so. According to an article from realtor.com, new contract signings were down 12 percent this July from June, which is not out of the ordinary for this time of year, seeing as most contracts that are signed in July won’t close until after the school year begins. As inventory stays on the market longer, pricing will go down, and if you sign a contract in September, you should be able to close before Thanksgiving, which means you can avoid the possibility of hitting a snowstorm in December at the beginning of winter.

“My buyers love looking in the early fall,” said Adam DiFrancesco, manager of business development for Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty. “Besides homes looking their prettiest, there is less competition between buyers. In the spring, all of my buyers are very go-go-go, and many are that way due to wanting to be closed before the start of the school year. In the fall, the process is more relaxed, giving my buyers more leisure in finding their home.”

If you have been waiting for an advantageous time to buy a home, now would be one of those ideal times. You won’t have to contend with the potential buyers who come out in droves during the warmer months of spring and summer, and you won’t have to worry about the snowy and icy traveling conditions of winter. So, if you’re looking to purchase a home, look into doing so during the early fall when you have a better chance at closing on the home you have your eyes on.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

 

Sources

www.realtor.com

Rand Country Blog September 4, 2015

How to Conduct a Final Walk-Through of Your New Home

Walk-through checklistYou’re almost there. You’re just about ready to close on your new home. While this should be a cause for celebration, you’re not exactly out of the woods just yet because there’s still the matter of having to do the final walk-through to make sure everything is how you want it to be before you close. As you’re doing the walk-through, here are some things you should keep in mind as you’re making sure everything is in order.

One very important aspect about the final walk-through is to try and do it 24 hours before your closing. You shouldn’t allow too much time to pass between conducting your walk-through and closing because you never know if anything might happen to the home during the in-between time, and then you return to do the settlement, only to find that the home has suffered some damage since the day of your walk-through. Once your settlement is finalized, any issues become yours and the previous owners won’t have any obligation to handle them. This is why I recommend you do your walkthrough as close as possible to 24 hours before closing. The last thing you need is more stress when you’re near the end of your home-buying journey, so use this tip to avoid any problems right before you intend to close.

When conducting your walk-through, you should have a checklist in hand concerning what to inspect as you’re going through the home. Turn on the heating and air conditioning for a few minutes to make sure they are operable, because the last thing you want to do is move into a home during the summer without a working air conditioner or the winter without sufficient heating. Also, go through all of the appliances (stove, refrigerator, washer, dryer, etc.) to see that they are in working order. Check all of the faucets to make sure you have hot water and water pressure. The smoke detectors must be tested as well. If your home comes equipped with a sprinkler system, test it to make sure it’s functioning. Inspect the basement, attic, and garage to make sure the previous owners have cleaned them out completely. If the garage has an automatic door, test it to make sure it works. Check all of the electrical outlets as well; you can go to your local hardware store and purchase an electrical tester. Given how much modern technology plays a role in our daily lives, you’ll definitely want to make sure you have working outlets in which to plug your laptop, mobile phone, and tablet.

After all of the time it takes to settle into your new home, you don’t want to deal with any home-repair tasks so soon after, so if you find anything major on your walk-through that isn’t working, make sure you ask the previous owners to have it fixed before you move in. If you find a problem in your home, first consider if it’s something that you can handle yourself once you move into your new home, because you don’t want to come across as being pedantic by pointing out easy-to-fix problems that you can take care of upon moving in. There isn’t any point in delaying your settlement over a problem that you can fix yourself, so it’s important to consult with your agent to determine which problems, if you have any, are/aren’t worth going after.

Occasionally, the previous owner won’t move out of the home until the new owners have closed. This is a perfect opportunity for the buyer to ask the owner any questions about the home, which should add some comfort to the buyer because they are communicating with the owner face to face and having their questions answered by the previous occupant. You never know if you’ll need to contact the seller for anything, so you should try to meet them at least once to form a good relationship with them and get to know each other. I’m not saying you have to take them out to dinner, but at least establish a general acquaintance with them.

Although doing a final walk-through might be one of the easier parts about buying a home, you can’t deny the importance of this step. You have to be thorough and attentive to detail when inspecting the home to make sure it meets the standards that you hope for prior to the closing. You have come this close to moving into your new home, so you don’t want to be deterred by problems that you neglected to look for during the walk-through. I know you’re excited to finally move in, but you have to make sure everything in your home is in working order. Once that happens, then you can finally close on the home and celebrate.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

 

Sources

homebuying.about.com

blog.allstate.com

realtor.com

Rand Country Blog July 31, 2015

Dutchess County Affordability: The Monthly Payment You Need to Buy a Home is as Low as it’s Been for the Past 15 Years

Dutchess Affordability 2015Q2Homes in Dutchess County are about as affordable as they have been in over 13 years.

What do I mean by that? It’s simple. Basically, the monthly mortgage payment it takes to purchase the average-priced home in Dutchess is about as low as it’s been since 2002 – and probably well before that.

If you look at the attached graph, you’ll see what I’m talking about. On that graph, we’ve plotted the monthly payment that a purchaser in the county would have to make to purchase the average-priced home at various points over the years. After all, affordability is not just a matter of the sales price – it’s a matter of the monthly payment you’re going to have to make, which is partly a function of the prevailing interest rate. And then to measure the change in the monthly payment over time, we factored in the effects of inflation.

So we took the following data points:

  • The average price of a single family home up to the second quarter of 2015 – from the local MLS data.
  • The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for June 2015 – from Freddie Mac.
  • The prevailing inflation rate up to 2014 year-end – from the US Department of Labor.

You can see the results on the graph. The monthly payment you have to make to purchase the average-priced home in the county is just about as low as it’s been in years. We’ve seen just the slightest uptick in the past few years, partially because of a slight increase in pricing and a slow inflating of interest rates. But we’re still talking about a monthly payment that is as low as anytime in the past 12 years. Moreover, although we don’t have data for Dutchess going back further than that, we do have data in Westchester going back to 1981 – and the monthly payment there is about as low right now as it’s been in those 35 years. Given how closely Dutchess tracks Westchester, it’s likely that homes in Dutchess are more affordable right now than they’ve been since the 1980s.

Why? Part of it is that we have not seen prices go up in any measurable way in almost 10 years, during which inflation has reduced the “true” cost of purchasing a home.

But more importantly, rates are significantly lower than they’ve been at any time in modern history. After all, about ten years ago, the average interest rate was about 6%. It’s now 4%. That’s a huge difference in your monthly payment.

Listen, I HATE it when real estate professionals say that “this is a great time to buy,” because at many times in our history that has been bad advice. But if you measure a “great time to buy” by looking at the monthly payment you’ll have to make to buy a home, then we’re talking about as good a time to buy as any in the past decades. Prices have been flat for almost 10 years, and they’re down significantly if you factor in the effects of inflation. And interest rates are still as low as we’ve ever seen them, even while they’re slowly creeping up (and most observers think they will continue to increase). Unless we see some major shock to the economy, I think we’re looking at a near-decade of reasonable price appreciation coupled with increasing interest rates – both of which are going to drive that monthly payment up over the next few years.

So if it’s up to me, I’m buying right now. And just so you know, I’m putting my money where my mouth is – I closed on my new home in the Hudson Valley 10 days ago.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog July 30, 2015

Putnam County Affordability: The Monthly Payment You Need to Buy a Home is as Low as it’s Been for the Past 15 Years

Putnam Affordability 2015Q2Homes in Putnam County are about as affordable as they have been in over 13 years.

What do I mean by that? It’s simple. Basically, the monthly mortgage payment it takes to purchase the average-priced home in Putnam is about as low as it’s been since 2002 – and probably well before that.

If you look at the attached graph, you’ll see what I’m talking about. On that graph, we’ve plotted the monthly payment that a purchaser in the county would have to make to purchase the average-priced home at various points over the years. After all, affordability is not just a matter of the sales price – it’s a matter of the monthly payment you’re going to have to make, which is partly a function of the prevailing interest rate. And then to measure the change in the monthly payment over time, we factored in the effects of inflation.

So we took the following data points:

  • The average price of a single family home up to the second quarter of 2015 – from the local MLS data.
  • The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for June 2015 – from Freddie Mac.
  • The prevailing inflation rate up to 2014 year-end – from the US Department of Labor.

You can see the results on the graph. The monthly payment you have to make to purchase the average-priced home in the county is just about as low as it’s been in years. We’ve seen just the slightest uptick in the past few years, partially because of a slight increase in pricing and a slow inflating of interest rates. But we’re still talking about a monthly payment that is as low as anytime in the past 12 years. Moreover, although we don’t have data for Putnam going back further than that, we do have data in Westchester going back to 1981 – and the monthly payment there is about as low right now as it’s been in those 35 years. Given how closely Putnam tracks Westchester, it’s likely that homes in Putnam are more affordable right now than they’ve been since the 1980s.

Why? Part of it is that we have not seen prices go up in any measurable way in almost 10 years, during which inflation has reduced the “true” cost of purchasing a home.

But more importantly, rates are significantly lower than they’ve been at any time in modern history. After all, about ten years ago, the average interest rate was about 6%. It’s now 4%. That’s a huge difference in your monthly payment.

Listen, I HATE it when real estate professionals say that “this is a great time to buy,” because at many times in our history that has been bad advice. But if you measure a “great time to buy” by looking at the monthly payment you’ll have to make to buy a home, then we’re talking about as good a time to buy as any in the past decades. Prices have been flat for almost 10 years, and they’re down significantly if you factor in the effects of inflation. And interest rates are still as low as we’ve ever seen them, even while they’re slowly creeping up (and most observers think they will continue to increase). Unless we see some major shock to the economy, I think we’re looking at a near-decade of reasonable price appreciation coupled with increasing interest rates – both of which are going to drive that monthly payment up over the next few years.

So if it’s up to me, I’m buying right now. And just so you know, I’m putting my money where my mouth is – I closed on my new home in the Hudson Valley 10 days ago.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog July 29, 2015

Orange County Affordability: The Monthly Payment You Need to Buy a Home is as Low as it’s Been for the Past 15 Years

Orange Affordability 2015Q2Homes in Orange County are about as affordable as they have been in over 20 years.

What do I mean by that? It’s simple. Basically, the monthly mortgage payment it takes to purchase the average-priced home in Orange is about as low as it’s been since 1994 – and probably well before that.

If you look at the attached graph, you’ll see what I’m talking about. On that graph, we’ve plotted the monthly payment that a purchaser in the county would have to make to purchase the average-priced home at various points over the years. After all, affordability is not just a matter of the sales price – it’s a matter of the monthly payment you’re going to have to make, which is partly a function of the prevailing interest rate. And then to measure the change in the monthly payment over time, we factored in the effects of inflation.

So we took the following data points:

  • The average price of a single family home up to the second quarter of 2015 – from the local MLS data.
  • The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for June 2015 – from Freddie Mac.
  • The prevailing inflation rate up to 2014 year-end – from the US Department of Labor.

You can see the results on the graph. The monthly payment you have to make to purchase the average-priced home in the county is just about as low as it’s been in years. We’ve seen just the slightest uptick in the past few years, partially because of a slight increase in pricing and a slow inflating of interest rates. But we’re still talking about a monthly payment that is as low as anytime in the past 20 years.

Why? Part of it is that we have not seen prices go up in any measurable way in almost 10 years, during which inflation has reduced the “true” cost of purchasing a home.

But more importantly, rates are significantly lower than they’ve been at any time in modern history. After all, about ten years ago, the average interest rate was about 6%. It’s now 4%. That’s a huge difference in your monthly payment.

Listen, I HATE it when real estate professionals say that “this is a great time to buy,” because at many times in our history that has been bad advice. But if you measure a “great time to buy” by looking at the monthly payment you’ll have to make to buy a home, then we’re talking about as good a time to buy as any in the past decades. Prices have been flat for almost 10 years, and they’re down significantly if you factor in the effects of inflation. And interest rates are still as low as we’ve ever seen them, even while they’re slowly creeping up (and most observers think they will continue to increase). Unless we see some major shock to the economy, I think we’re looking at a near-decade of reasonable price appreciation coupled with increasing interest rates – both of which are going to drive that monthly payment up over the next few years.

So if it’s up to me, I’m buying right now. And just so you know, I’m putting my money where my mouth is – I closed on my new home in the Hudson Valley 10 days ago.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog July 28, 2015

Rockland County Affordability: The Monthly Payment You Need to Buy a Home is as Low as it’s Been for the Past 15 Years

Rockland Affordability 2015Q2Homes in Rockland County are about as affordable as they have been in over 13 years.

What do I mean by that? It’s simple. Basically, the monthly mortgage payment it takes to purchase the average-priced home in Rockland is about as low as it’s been since 2002 – and probably well before that.

If you look at the attached graph, you’ll see what I’m talking about. On that graph, we’ve plotted the monthly payment that a purchaser in the county would have to make to purchase the average-priced home at various points over the years. After all, affordability is not just a matter of the sales price – it’s a matter of the monthly payment you’re going to have to make, which is partly a function of the prevailing interest rate. And then to measure the change in the monthly payment over time, we factored in the effects of inflation.

So we took the following data points:

  • The average price of a single family home up to the second quarter of 2015 – from the local MLS data.
  • The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for June 2015 – from Freddie Mac.
  • The prevailing inflation rate up to 2014 year-end – from the US Department of Labor.

You can see the results on the graph. The monthly payment you have to make to purchase the average-priced home in the county is just about as low as it’s been in years. We’ve seen just the slightest uptick in the past few years, partially because of a slight increase in pricing and a slow inflating of interest rates. But we’re still talking about a monthly payment that is as low as anytime in the past 12 years. Moreover, although we don’t have data for Rockland going back further than that, we do have data in Westchester going back to 1981 – and the monthly payment there is about as low right now as it’s been in those 35 years. Given how closely Rockland tracks Westchester, it’s likely that homes in Rockland are more affordable right now than they’ve been since the 1980s.

Why? Part of it is that we have not seen prices go up in any measurable way in almost 10 years, during which inflation has reduced the “true” cost of purchasing a home.

But more importantly, rates are significantly lower than they’ve been at any time in modern history. After all, about ten years ago, the average interest rate was about 6%. It’s now 4%. That’s a huge difference in your monthly payment.

Listen, I HATE it when real estate professionals say that “this is a great time to buy,” because at many times in our history that has been bad advice. But if you measure a “great time to buy” by looking at the monthly payment you’ll have to make to buy a home, then we’re talking about as good a time to buy as any in the past decades. Prices have been flat for almost 10 years, and they’re down significantly if you factor in the effects of inflation. And interest rates are still as low as we’ve ever seen them, even while they’re slowly creeping up (and most observers think they will continue to increase). Unless we see some major shock to the economy, I think we’re looking at a near-decade of reasonable price appreciation coupled with increasing interest rates – both of which are going to drive that monthly payment up over the next few years.

So if it’s up to me, I’m buying right now. And just so you know, I’m putting my money where my mouth is – I closed on my new home in Nyack 10 days ago.

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