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Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Rockland County
The Rockland County market surged in the second quarter of 2016, with another dramatic increase in sales coupled with an eye‑popping 10% spike in the average sales price.
Sales. Rockland sales were up yet again, rising over 28% from last year’s second quarter and now up 25% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for four straight years, with transactions up for the last seven quarters and 15 out of the last 16. Indeed, we almost saw 2,000 single‑family sales over the rolling year for the first time in over 10 years, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. After years of struggles, Rockland pricing finally broke through, with the average sales price spiking over 10% from the second quarter of last year. But that eye‑opening number comes with a couple of caveats. First, the increase for the rolling year was more modest (and sustainable), up about 6% on average. Second, the other pricing metrics were not as robust, with the median up 5% and the price‑per‑square‑foot up 6%. And third, the 10% increase in the average was skewed by a surge of activity in the high end, with $1M+ sales rising from 3 to 12 from last year’s second quarter. So although pricing is definitely trending upwards, we should not expect to see sustained double‑digit price appreciation going forward.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators supported the view that the market is tightening. Inventory was down, listing retention was up, and the days‑on‑market were down – all indicating that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers.
Condos. The condo market in Rockland was up, but not at the pace of the single‑family market. Sales were up a robust 10%, but prices continue to struggle along, down on average and at the median. If single‑family homes continue to appreciate, though, that will expand the pricing gap between houses and condos, which would probably have a positive impact on the condo market.
Going forward, we do not expect Rockland to see sustained double‑digit price appreciation, but do believe that the market will continue to enjoy more modest pricing and sales increases. With prices still at attractive levels, interest rates low, and the economy generally strengthening, we believe that Rockland will have its best year since the height of the seller’s market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester County
The Westchester housing market surged in the second quarter of 2016, with sales activity up sharply but prices down slightly because of continued weakness in the ultra high‑end.
Sales. Market activity exploded, with single‑family sales up over 22% from last year and now up over 12% for the rolling year. Year‑on‑year sales have now risen in 17 out of the last 19 quarters, with rolling year closings crossing over the 6,000‑transaction level for the first time in over 10 years. We saw the same thing in the condo and coop markets, with coop sales up over 10% and condos up over 20% from last year.
Prices. Even with this continued strength in buyer demand, though, prices were still down from last year, falling almost 3% on average and 2% in the median and price‑per‑square foot. Part of this is simply a change in the mix of properties sold, with sales softer in the higher‑end markets: $3M+ sales are down about 44%, even while sales for homes priced at $500,000‑and‑below are up over 25%. Indeed, we see the same dynamic in condos and coops, with pricing in the lowest‑priced coop market up almost 7% at the median even while the mid‑priced condo market is depreciating slightly.
Inventory. We are still seeing declines in inventory levels, which are now hovering near the six‑month level that signifies a seller’s market. Single‑family listings were down 24% to 6.7 months, and inventory is even tighter in the entry‑level markets, down to 6.0 months for coops and 4.0 months for condos.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators demonstrate that sellers are gaining leverage with buyers. The days‑on‑market were down for all property types, at about the five‑month level for single‑family homes and condos, and the listing retention rate rose across the board. With homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, we would expect to see more upward pressure on pricing.
Going forward, we continue to believe that the fundamentals in the Westchester market point to appreciating prices by year‑end. With inventory tightening, pricing at 2004‑05 levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that the strength in the lower‑end of the market will eventually expand throughout all price ranges.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2016, with sharply rising sales finally starting to have an impact on pricing, particularly in the mid- and entry‑priced markets throughout the region.
Sales. Activity continues to surge, with regional sales up over 26% compared to the second quarter of last year, and rising in every county in the Rand Report. We’ve now had sales going up for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 16 out of the last 18 quarters. Most importantly, we’re now seeing sustained sales increases driving sales totals to levels that rival the height of the last seller’s market, with almost 15,000 single‑family homes and 3,000 condos sold over the past 12 months.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. In the real estate industry, we measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, and consider anything under six months of inventory as an indicator of a “seller’s market.” Well, we are not yet under six months in any of our regional markets, but we’re moving in that direction, with months of single‑family inventory down 24% in Westchester, 38% in Putnam, 32% in Rockland, 39% in Orange, and 25% in Dutchess. Condo inventory was also down, falling 38% in Westchester, 48% in Putnam, 9% in Rockland, 29% in Orange, and 18% in Dutchess. Both Westchester and Putnam condos are now below six months worth of inventory, and other counties are closing in on the threshold.
Prices. These sustained surges in sales activity are not, though, yet having a widespread impact on pricing. You’ll notice on the accompanying graph that regional average prices have been ticking down for the past year or so. This is a little surprising, given that basic economics tells us that increasing demand coupled with falling inventory should drive prices higher. But we caution you not to read too much into the regional price decline, because the relative strength of activity in the lower priced markets (Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Dutchess) compared to Westchester has changed the mix of properties sold over the past year. Indeed, if you look at individual counties, we had price appreciation in Putnam, Rockland, and Dutchess, and mixed results in Orange. It was only in Westchester that we had prices go down, but even there we believe that the drop was largely caused by a relative lack of demand in the very high end of the market, for homes selling above $3 million. In other words, both the regional price decline and the price drop in Westchester are partly caused by the relative strength of lower‑priced markets compared to higher‑priced markets throughout the region.
Going forward, we expect a robust summer market. The fundamentals of our regional market are strong: demand is rising, inventory is falling, interest rates are near historic lows, and the overall economy is doing fine. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to outpace 2015 levels, and believe it’s only a matter of time before the sustained increases in buyer demand start driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Presidential Homes in the Lower Hudson Valley
For those of you who live in the Lower Hudson Valley, you probably know the area has some rich bits of history ingrained in its land. Whether or not you’re a history buff, you can’t deny how interesting it is to live in a place where notable political figures have made their mark. To coincide with the recent President’s Day and ongoing presidential debates, here are some connections previous Commander in Chiefs have with the Lower Hudson Valley.
Seeing as George Washington was our first president, we’ll begin with him. If you visit 84 Liberty Street in Newburgh, NY in Orange County, you will find the location of Washington’s headquarters, a fieldstone farmhouse that has the distinction of being the first public historic site in the country. Washington resided in this house for 16 months following the end of the American Revolution, and while staying there, he created the Badge of Military Merit, which is the predecessor to the Purple Heart. The house is now a museum that overlooks the magnificent Hudson River and also includes the Tower of Victory, which was constructed in 1890 to overlook the river. The tower is meant to honor the centennial of Washington’s stay at the house. It’s a real privilege to be in close proximity to a piece of history involving one of our Founding Fathers, so if you have time to visit this museum, I highly suggest you do so.
If you find yourself traveling around Hyde Park, NY in Dutchess County, you should go to 4097 Albany Post Road and visit the Springwood estate, which was the birthplace, home, and final resting place of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, our 32nd president. He was once quoted saying, “All that is within me cries out to go back to my home on the Hudson River,” and it’s safe to say anyone can find a sense of tranquility when living in a home as beautiful as this one next to a river as historic and gorgeous as the Hudson. The property also includes a library and museum that will teach you about FDR’s 12-year presidency (this was before the enactment of the 22nd amendment, which limits a president to two terms). In 1943, Roosevelt donated his home to the American people; and following his passing in 1945, it was given to the National Parks Service. There was even a movie released in 2012 called “Hyde Park on Hudson,” which starred Bill Murray as FDR. Roosevelt also had the quaint and cozy Top Cottage, which he built in 1937 as a retreat and eventual retirement home, where he also had guests such as King George VI and Queen Elizabeth. Top Cottage also has the distinctions of being one of the first wheelchair-accessible homes and one of the only homes designed by a living president.
In 1927, our 35th president, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, moved from Brookline, Massachusetts to the Bronx, where his family spent two years before moving into a home in Westchester County at 294 Pondfield Road, Bronxville, NY when he was 12. He and his family lived there from May 1929 to January 1942. It was a 5.5-acre hillside estate called Crownlands, and it was a Georgian-style mansion with a white exterior and red roof, and it had a circular row of columns that added to the home’s stateliness. The house also had a grand white set of stairs that descended the hill on which the house was situated. This was certainly a home where you could imagine the great Jay Gatsby hosting a party. It was demolished in 1953 by a developer who found a use for the land, which back then was the largest piece of property in the village. With Kennedy being one of our most well-known presidents, you can’t deny how neat it is for him to have lived in an area so close to us.
No matter where you live, odds are there is some interesting history behind your surrounding area. Whether it be local history or history that has a bigger connection to national history, it’s always fun to learn the story behind where you live. In celebration of Presidents’ Day 2016 and the current presidential race, take the time to acknowledge the moments in our country’s history that have touched certain places in the Lower Hudson Valley and value the opportunity we have to live in a place that has ties to a few presidencies.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
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So What’s Going on in the Dutchess County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Dutchess finished the year strong, with a nice increase in sales activity coupled with the first small signs of meaningful price appreciation. For the year, sales were up sharply while prices were basically flat.
Sales. Dutchess County single-family home sales surged again in the fourth quarter, with transactions up 11% from last year. This marked the fifth quarter in a row with year-on-year sales increases, ending a year where closings were up almost 25%. Indeed, the 2,140 yearly sales represented the highest calendar year total since 2006, at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Prices. For the first time, we are starting to see some “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess, with both average and median prices up, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. For the calendar year, average prices were down a tick while the median was basically flat, but we believe that the sustained increases in buyer activity we’re seeing in Dutchess are bound to have an impact on pricing in 2016.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up to almost 95%. And the days-on-market remains down below six months for the year, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly. As sellers gain negotiating leverage, we would expect prices to go up.
Condominiums. The condo market was robust, with sales up over 31% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and up over 20% for the year. And although prices were down sharply for the year, they spiked this quarter, indicating that we might be seeing odd fluctuations from outliers in a relatively thin market.
Going forward, we believe that with a stable economy, interest rates near historic lows, pricing at 2004 levels, and increasing buyer demand, Dutchess is poised for meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Activity in Putnam surged in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply, hitting levels we have not seen in over ten years. And although prices took a dip in the quarter, they were relatively flat for the year.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the fourth quarter, rising almost 12% from last year and up almost 21% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for four years, with closings up for six straight quarters and 14 out of the last 15. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 918 calendar sales being the most since 2005.
Prices. Pricing was disappointing, with the quarterly price down across the board after a robust showing in the third quarter. Indeed, for the year, prices were down just slightly, after rising for the past two calendar years.
Negotiability. The good news for prices came in the inventory numbers, which were down sharply. The months-of-inventory fell almost 21% from last year, down to below 9.0 months for the first time in over 10 years. With inventory tightening, we would expect negotiability to decline, which would tend to drive prices up as buyers chase fewer opportunities and homes sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly up, rising over 22% for the quarter and over 30% for the year. In this case, though, the surge in activity has already been felt in the pricing, with the average up over 11% for the quarter and over 9% for the year.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand coupled with a declining inventory are likely to drive some meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Orange County surged again in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over ten years, but this rising demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing.
Sales. Orange County sales spiked again, rising 20% from the fourth quarter of last year and up 29% for all of 2015. We have now seen sustained sales growth for more than three years, with transactions up five quarters in a row and 14 out of the last 15. Indeed, we are now seeing sales at historically high levels, with the 2,843 yearly sales the most in any calendar year since 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Unfortunately, we have not yet seen these sustained increases in buyer demand have an impact on pricing, with the average and median price both finishing the year down from 2014. Prices are now down to 2002-03 levels, having retained the price appreciation enjoyed from 1998-2003, but giving back everything in the “bubble years” from 2004-07.
Negotiability. We measure “negotiability” by looking at the inventory on the market, how quickly homes are selling, and how much sellers are discounting off their last listed price. By those measures, the only clear indication of increasing seller leverage is in the listing inventory, which fell to 10.0 months-of-inventory, the lowest level we have seen in about 10 years. If inventory continues to tighten, we would expect that buyers chasing reduced opportunities will drive prices up.
Condominiums. The condo market also surged, rising 20% for the quarter and up 28% for the year. Even with demand strong, though, we’re seeing even more pressure on prices in the condo market, with prices down again for the quarter and the year. With a narrow gap (about $80,000) between single-family and condo prices, and with rates at their current levels, many entry-level buyers can afford to stretch to get into a single-family home. That’s having a depressing effect on condo prices, and it won’t get better until single-family home prices start to rise.
Going forward, we believe that demand will continue to drive sales up through a robust spring market, but expect that we will need to see continued tightening in the inventory to drive any meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Rockland sales surged again in a torrid end to 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years and prices showing meaningful signs of appreciation.
Sales. Rockland sales were up sharply, rising 26% from the fourth quarter of 2015 and up over 20% for the calendar year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over three years, with transactions up for the last five quarters and 13 out of the last 14. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 1,830 yearly sales the largest calendar year total since 2004.
Prices. The Rockland average sales price rose in 2015 for the third straight year, up over 3% after more modest increases in 2013 and 2014. Although prices are still a long way from recouping the 25% plunge from 2008-09, and are still at 2004 levels (without adjusting for inflation), pricing is definitely moving in a positive direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were a little mixed, but the inventory numbers were startling. As of the close of 2015, Rockland had about 6.7 months of single-family inventory, the lowest level we have seen in over 10 years and tantalizingly close to the six-month level that signals a “tight” market. Similarly, the listing retention rate hit 96% for the first time since the market correction in 2008, indicating that sellers are gaining leverage when negotiating to get their asking price with buyers.
Condos. The condo market was not quite as robust, with sales up slightly for the quarter, but flat for the year. Prices were up on average, though, and inventory fell to about 7.4 months, so we might be seeing the beginning of some meaningful price appreciation in this entry-level market.
Going forward, we expect that Rockland is going to show signs of a fully realized seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows continuing to drive meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Westchester activity surged in the fourth quarter, with sales up sharply for both single-family homes and condominiums, even while prices remained stubbornly soft.
Sales. Residential rose sharply, up over 13% from last year and finishing the calendar year up almost 8%. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for four full years, with year-on-year transactions going up in 15 out of the last 17 quarters. For the 2015 year, Westchester closed over 5,700
single-family homes, the highest calendar year total since 2005, at the height of the seller’s market.
Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down across the board, finishing a year in which the average price dropped over 3%. While that was disappointing to Westchester homeowners, we note that prices got a little ahead of themselves in 2014, spiking 7% in one year, and the average price is still about 4% higher than it was in 2013.
Negotiability. Although the days-on-market and listing retention rates were basically flat for the quarter and the year, we did see a sharp decline in inventory levels, with the “months-of-inventory” level falling to 5.1 in the quarter and 7.1 for the rolling year – the lowest levels we have seen in over ten years. (In comparison, we had over 17 months of inventory in the middle of 2009, at the bottom of the market).
Condos & Coops. Activity in the condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply but prices down. Inventory levels have really dropped for this entry-level market, though, with condos falling all the way to 3.9 months of inventory.
Going forward, we believe that the Westchester market is poised to transition to a full-blown seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows driving meaningful price appreciation through what will be a robust spring market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q4
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market finished 2015 strong, with another surge in activity that drove sales up almost 17% for the year. And although this sustained increase in buyer demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing, declining levels of inventory are now signaling that meaningful price appreciation is imminent.
In other words – welcome to the seller’s market! As we have noted before in this Report, our housing market tends to run in approximately 15-year cycles from the beginning of a seller’s market to the end of a buyer’s market. We saw this cycle play out from 1981-1997, with prices and activity rising for about seven years through most of the 1980s (the “seller’s market”) and then falling for about eight years from 1989-1997 (the “buyer’s market”). And we saw it again in another 15-year period from the seller’s market that started in the late 1990s, ran through the crash of 2008-09, and then transitioned to the buyer’s market that ran through the past few years.
Well, as we come into 2016, we are now on the cusp of a new cycle, a seller’s market that has been slow to develop over the past few years, but is now showing real signs of taking off. Here are some of the reasons why:
First, sales activity has now been generally up for over four years. Year-on-year sales have now gone up for 14 out of the past 16 quarters, culminating in almost 13,500 single-family sales this year – the highest total we have seen since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005. By comparison, yearly regional closings routinely fell below the 10,000 sale mark after the market correction in 2008.
Second, inventory levels have dropped significantly, with some markets going below the crucial six-months-of-inventory mark. We measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, which we calculate by taking the number of homes on the market and dividing them by the average number of homes that are selling every month. So, if we have 1,000 homes on the market, and we are selling about 100 homes on average every month, we say that we have about 10 “months of inventory.” According to industry standards, about six months of inventory signals a “balanced” market: anything less, and buyers chasing scarcity are likely to create bidding wars that will drive prices up. And for the first time in about 10 years, we’ve seen one of our markets go under six months of inventory, with Westchester single-family homes at about 5.1 and condos at about 3.9. The other markets are above six months, but they are definitely trending downward and are hitting levels we have not seen since the last seller’s market.
Third, as a result of declining inventory and rising demand, we are starting to see some “green shoots” in pricing at the county level. It doesn’t look like much, particularly since the overall regional price fell this year due to some regression in Westchester, but we are seeing a slight upward trend in most of the counties over the past several years. It takes time for changes in activity to impact pricing, but basic economics tells us that four years of rising sales coupled with a declining inventory should drive prices up.
Going forward, we expect that 2016 will mark the clear beginning of a fully realized seller’s market. The economy is in reasonably good shape, interest rates are still near historic lows, and homes are now priced pretty attractively given that they’re still at 2003-04 levels without adjustments for inflation. So we see no reason why buyer demand would fall off from its current levels. And unless we see a flood of new inventory hitting the market, those buyers are going to be chasing a declining number of homes for sale, which is likely to drive prices up in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
