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First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Bergen Market Overview
The Bergen County housing market started 2016 off strong, with sales way up and clear indications of increasing buyer demand.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales started the year with a flourish, rising over 19% for the quarter and marking the sixth straight quarter of year-on-year sales increases. Indeed, we are starting to see transactions at “seller market” levels, with over 6,000 sales over the rolling year, which is comparable to the sales totals during the last seller’s market.
Prices. Although prices were basically flat for the quarter, we are continuing to see consistent, if modest, long-term price appreciation. Over the past rolling year, prices have been up almost 2% on average and over 4% at the median, which is the type of long term appreciation that is generally sustainable. We’re still seeing pricing at non-inflation adjusted 2004 levels, about 15% below the height of the market in 2006, but we’re moving in the right direction.
Inventory. The “months of inventory” indicator measures how long it would take to sell out the existing inventory of homes at the current rate of home sales. In the industry, we generally consider anything below six months as a signal for a seller’s market, where tight inventory leads to multiple-offer situations, bidding wars, and ultimately appreciating prices. So the fact that Bergen single-family homes crossed over that threshold in this quarter is a clear indication that we’re looking at a burgeoning seller’s market in the county.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers might be gaining a bit of leverage with buyers. In the quarter, the average days on market were flat, but they’re now down 6.5% for the rolling year. So homes are getting into contract more quickly. Similarly, sellers were becoming slightly more demanding on pricing, with the listing retention rate closing on 96%.
Condos & Coops. The Bergen condo market was up sharply, with both sales and prices surging. Condo sales were up almost 26% for the quarter, finishing the rolling year up over 11%. But the real story was prices, with both the average and median price spiking over 7% for the quarter and now in positive territory for the year. Those types of price increases are probably not sustainable, but we do believe that Bergen condos will experience meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a strong seller’s market. Buyer demand is strong, which is driving up sales and starting to have a long-term impact on pricing. With pricing close to 2004 levels, rates near historic lows, and the economy relatively stable, we expect demand to stay strong through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market got off to a strong start in 2016, with sales up again throughout the region. But this sustained surge in buyer demand is not yet having any real impact on pricing, which was flat or down in each of the counties.
Sales were up over 10% for the region, rising in every county in the Report. Closings have now been trending up for about five years, ever since the market stabilized after the correction precipitated by the financial crisis of 2008-09. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid 2000’s, sales are up about 40% from the bottom of the market and are moving in a positive direction.
We are also seeing inventory continue to tighten. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. So, for example, if we have 1,000 homes for sale and we close about 100 sales a month, we say that’s about 10 months of inventory. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple-offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. Well, right now, we’re starting to see inventory tighten across the region. Bergen, Morris, and Essex are all below the 6-month threshold, and Passaic is right on the cusp. Only Sussex is trailing, but even inventory there is tightening and has dropped from 11.5 months to 9.6 months in the past year.
Even with sales up and inventory down, though, average prices dropped throughout the region. In our last Report, we said that we were seeing the first signs of “green shoots” of price appreciation. Well, in the first quarter, those green shoots withered away. Prices were down throughout the region, in some cases sharply. This was surprising, given that all the other indicators suggest that we should be seeing meaningful price appreciation at this point. It might be that the market is simply stronger in the lower end than the middle or higher end, which is changing the mix of properties sold and skewing the average. Or it could just be a short term blip in the data during the slowest time of the year. Either way, we will keep our eye on it for the next Report, which will cover the spring market and give us a better read on things.
Going forward, we still believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold. Basic economics tells us that high demand and declining supply is bound to drive up pricing at some point. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we expect that the price declines in the first quarter were an anomaly, and that the region will experience rising sales and prices through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Sussex County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Sussex County housing market surged in the fourth quarter, with a dramatic spike in sales that continued a yearlong trend of markedly higher transaction rates. Nevertheless, we are still not seeing these sustained levels of buyer demand have their expected impact on pricing.
Sales. Sussex sales were up sharply in the fourth quarter, rising almost 39% from last year and finishing the year up almost 18%. Indeed, Essex closings have now gone up in each of the last four years, during which sales have now increased by almost 80% from their 2011 levels at the bottom of the market. With sustained levels of buyer demand, the market is in much stronger shape than it has been at any time since the 2008-09 market correction.
Prices. This spike in sales, though, has not yet had an impact on pricing, which has actually deteriorated, even while buyer demand increased. Average and median sales prices were down for both the fourth quarter and the full calendar year, which was a little disappointing given the transactional strength in the market. Moreover, prices have been trending downward now for several years, in defiance of what we would expect from normal economic behavior. Generally, it takes time for increases in demand to drive pricing changes, so we believe this will turn around if buyer demand remains at its current levels.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were mixed. The days-on-market fell dramatically in the quarter, dropping over 13% — and almost a full month! For the year, the market time was down as well, although not as significantly. But we didn’t see the same dynamic in the listing retention rate, which actually fell a bit for the quarter and was flat for the year. Generally, we expect that as buyer demand heats up, homes will sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price. We’re starting to see quicker sales, but nothing that would indicate that sellers are gaining leverage in their negotiations with buyers.
Going forward, we do expect better things for the Sussex market. We believe that buyer demand will stay strong through 2016, especially with a relatively strong economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near-historically low interest rates. And if buyer demand stays at its current levels, we expect that Sussex will start to see some meaningful price appreciation by the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Essex County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Essex County housing market closed the year with a modest increase in sales and some mixed results in pricing. For the year, sales were up fairly significantly, but we’re still not seeing any meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Essex sales were up in the fourth quarter, rising over 4% from last year and finishing the year up almost 10%. Indeed, Essex closings have now gone up in each of the last four years, during which sales have now increased by over 50% from their 2011 levels at the bottom of the market. The market is in much stronger shape than it has been at any time since the 2008-09 market correction, with sustained levels of buyer demand.
Prices. This jump in sales, though, has not yet had an impact on pricing, which remains relatively flat over the past three years. We are seeing pricing about 8% higher than at the bottom of the market, but we haven’t seen any movement over the past three years, even while transactions went up. Generally, it takes time for increases in demand to drive pricing changes, so we believe it’s just a matter of time before we start to see meaningful price appreciation in Essex.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were essentially flat. The days-on-market fell slightly in the quarter and for the year, indicating that homes were selling just a bit quicker, and the listing retention rate was up a little for both the quarter and the year, but neither indicator moved in a way that would dramatically affect the negotiating balance between buyers and sellers.
Going forward, we expect that buyer demand will stay strong through 2016. With a relatively strong economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near-historically low interest rates, we believe that we will start to see some meaningful price appreciation by the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Morris County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Morris County housing market sagged a bit in the fourth quarter, with only a modest increase in sales and basically flat prices. For the year, sales were up slightly, but we are still not seeing any meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Morris County sales were essentially flat for the fourth quarter, rising 1.5% and finishing the year up 7.6%. This did mark the fifth straight quarter of year-on-year sales growth, and the market closed over 5,500 sales for the calendar year for the first time since the height of the seller’s market, so things are moving in the right direction. But compared to the other northern New Jersey county markets, Morris’s 2015 performance was relatively tepid.
Prices. Similarly, Morris pricing continued the trend of bouncing around a bit. For the quarter, the average price was up a tick and the median was down slightly. And for the year, the average was up and the median flat. That’s what we’ve basically seen over the last few years: prices up one quarter, down the next, the average up but the median down, etc. We’re not getting any clear read on where pricing in Morris is going, except that we remain confident if buyer demand continues to grow it will eventually start pushing prices up.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were basically flat. The days-on-market rose slightly in the quarter and for the year, indicating that homes were taking just a little longer to sell. But sellers were getting slightly closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up a bit for both the quarter and the year. Again, like with sales and prices, the results were basically “meh” – no clear trend, no major movement one way or the other.
Going forward, despite the relatively lackluster results in 2015, we still believe Morris County is poised for serious growth. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we expect that buyer demand will strengthen and drive more meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Passaic County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Passaic County housing market closed strong in the fourth quarter of 2015, with solid increases in both sales and prices. As a result, Passaic finished its third straight year of meaningful price appreciation, clearly indicating that it is moving into a seller’s market.
Sales. Passaic sales continued to go up in the fourth quarter, rising almost 7% and finishing the year with a 13% increase off 2014 levels. Indeed, we’ve now seen sustained increases in buyer demand for over four years, with quarterly sales up in 17 out of the last 19 quarters. Moreover, the almost 3,000 sales for all of 2015 marked the highest calendar year total since 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Although prices bounced around a little in 2015, they finished the year strong. In the fourth quarter, prices were up almost 5% on both the average and at the median. And even with the ups and downs throughout the year, Passaic still finished 2015 with a solid 2.1% increase in the average and 3.1% at the median, marking the third straight year of modest, but meaningful, price appreciation. Prices still have a long way to go to recover from the market correction of 2008-09, but they are moving in the right direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were mixed. The days-on-market were slightly up for both the quarter and the year, signaling that it was taking longer for homes to get sold. But the listing retention rate was also up, indicating that sellers were gaining some negotiating leverage with buyers, and were better able to command closer to their asking prices. As buyer demand continues to heat up, we would expect sellers to gain more negotiating power, leading to higher prices overall.
Going forward, we believe that Passaic’s fundamentals are sound, with homes priced at relatively attractive levels, rates near historic lows, and a stable economy. Accordingly, we expect that Passaic County will flower into a fully-realized seller’s market in 2016, marked by continued increases in both sales and prices.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Bergen County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Bergen County housing market continued to expand in the fourth quarter, with both sales and prices up. For the calendar year, Bergen saw a solid increase in sales and modest but measurable price appreciation.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales finished the year strong, with sales up almost 8% for the quarter and over 10% for the calendar year. This marked the fifth straight quarter of year-on-year sales increases. Indeed, we are starting to see transactions at “seller market” levels, with the 6,103 calendar year sales higher than any year since 2006.
Prices. With these sustained increases in buyer demand, we’re also seeing consistent, if modest, appreciation in pricing. Prices were up for the quarter, rising almost 1% on average and 5% at the median. And, for the year, prices were basically flat on average, with a more robust 3.4% increase at the median. We’re still seeing pricing at non-inflation-adjusted 2004 levels, about 15% below the height of the market in 2006, but we’re moving in the right direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators implied that sellers might be gaining a bit of leverage with buyers. In the quarter, the average days-on-market fell sharply, dropping almost 13%, so homes were getting into contract more quickly. Similarly, sellers were becoming slightly more demanding on pricing, with the listing retention rate closing on 96%.
Condominiums. The Bergen condo market was up sharply, with sales rising almost 16% for the quarter and over 5% for the year. Pricing was mixed, with the average up for both the quarter and the year but the median down. We expect that if buyer demand continues to grow, it will start to drive meaningful price appreciation in this entry-level market.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a seller’s market. Buyer demand is strong, which is driving up sales and starting to have a meaningful impact on pricing. With pricing close to 2004 levels, rates near historic lows, and the economy relatively stable, we expect demand to stay strong through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for the Northern New Jersey Region for 2015Q4
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished 2015 in a flourish, with sharp increases in sales and emerging signs of meaningful price appreciation. As 2016 begins, the region seems to be moving into a fully-realized seller’s market that will be characterized by declining inventory, increasing sales, and rising prices.
Sales were up over 8% for the region, rising in every county in the Report. Closings have now been trending up for about five years, ever since the market stabilized after the correction precipitated by the financial crisis of 2008-09. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid-2000’s, the number of homes sold in 2015 was about 40% higher than at the bottom of the market.
Although prices were basically flat, they showed signs of emerging “green shoots.” The regional sales price was up less than 1%, but it did mark the third straight year of rising prices, even though the increases have been marginal. On the other hand, pricing is now about 8% higher than at the bottom of the market, so the trend is generally positive. Interestingly, pricing was stronger in the middle of the market, with mid-priced counties like Passaic generally faring a little better than higher-priced areas like Bergen or Morris.
Most importantly, we are starting to see a tightening of inventory. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. So, for example, if we have 1,000 homes for sale and we close about 100 sales a month, we say that’s about 10 months of inventory. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. Well, right now, we’re starting to see markets that are under 10 months of inventory, with some trending toward six months, signaling that we are moving into a tighter market.
Going forward, we believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, and at some point that increased buyer demand is going to start driving down inventory and driving up pricing. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we expect that the region will experience rising sales and prices through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
Editor’s Note: We are delighted to present this comprehensive Report on the Northern New Jersey housing market for the first time. Although we have been providing reports to our clients on the Bergen, Passaic, and Morris County markets for several years, we are now expanding our focus to also cover Hudson, Essex, and Sussex Counties.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Morris County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Morris County housing market softened a bit in the third quarter, with sales up modestly but prices a little flat. Over the longer-term, we’re seeing sustained increases in buyer demand that are likely to have a meaningful impact on prices by 2016.
Sales. Morris County sales were up modestly in the second quarter, rising 5.7%. This marked the fourth straight quarter with year-over-year sales growth, capping a rolling year where sales were up 9.4%. Indeed, the 1,768 quarterly sales and the 5,492 yearly sales represented the highest totals since the height of the seller’s market. Clearly, buyer demand in Morris remains robust.
Prices. This continued surge in sales activity, though, has not had a sustained impact on pricing. We’ve seen Morris pricing bouncing around for the last year or so – up one quarter, down the next. And this was a down quarter, with the average falling 2.6% and the median down 1.6%. Over the longer-term, though, the trend is encouraging, with the rolling year average price up 1.5% and the median up 1.3%. If buyer demand continues to strengthen, it’s just a matter of time before we see more meaningful price appreciation.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were basically flat. The days-on-market was up a tick for the quarter, but down for the year. And the listing retention rate was up just slightly for both the quarter and the year.
Going forward, we expect that the Morris County market will continue to grow through the end of the year and into 2016. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that buyer demand will stay strong and drive more meaningful price appreciation by the spring market of next year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Passaic County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Passaic County housing market surged in the third quarter of 2015, with sales activity up dramatically but prices relatively flat. If we continue to see these kinds of increases in buyer demand, though, it’s only a matter of time before Passaic experiences meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Passaic sales were up dramatically in the second quarter, rising 22.3% from last year, marking the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year sales growth. Indeed, we’ve now seen sustained increases in buyer demand for over four years, with quarterly sales up in 16 out of the last 18 quarters. The 932 quarterly sales marked the highest total since the height of the seller’s market, and the 2,898 rolling year sales were more than in any calendar year since 2006.
Prices. Even with this continued increase in buyer demand, though, we’re not yet seeing a meaningful sustained impact on pricing. For the quarter, pricing was mixed, with the average down 0.2% and the median up 3.3%. For the year, the results are a little more encouraging, with average up just a tick and the median up almost 2%. Passaic is still struggling to shake off the after-effects of the market correction, with pricing still at a non-inflation-adjusted 2003 level.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators did not reflect what we would expect to be the tightening effects of increased buyer demand. The days-on-market were up over 5% in the quarter, indicating that homes are taking a little longer to sell. And the listing retention rate fell pretty sharply, down to 96.3%, signaling that sellers are discounting more heavily to get into contract.
Going forward, we expect that Passaic County buyer demand will stay strong through the end of the year, but not necessarily at the rate of growth that we’re seeing right now. But the economic fundamentals are good: homes are priced at attractive levels, rates are near historic lows, and the economy is relatively stable. If buyer demand continues to stay at its current rates, we are bound to see some meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
