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Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Putnam County, New York
The Putnam County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with sales way up and prices stabilizing after a summer spike.
Sales. Putnam sales were up again in the third quarter, with single‑family home closings up over 12% from last year and now up almost 22% for the year. The market is just sizzling, with transactions up in nine straight quarters and 17 out of the last 18. Similarly, condo sales were up almost 12%, and have risen almost 20% for the year. Putnam demand is strong right now.
Prices. Even with all this demand, though, we’re not seeing a dramatic impact on pricing. Single‑family home prices were basically flat for the quarter, down a tick on average and up almost 2% at the median. Condo pricing was downright scary, falling almost 20% on both the average and the median, but we caution that the Putnam condo market is very thin and can be skewed by outliers. Overall, though, it’s surprising that sustained buyer demand over almost five years has had so little impact on pricing.
Inventory. The good news for Putnam homeowners was that inventory was down again, falling almost 43% to 7.3 months of active single‑family listings and 4.7 months for condos. Anything below six months usually signifies a tight seller’s market, which would tend to drive the kind of appreciation we’ve been waiting for.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers continue to gain leverage with buyers, with the listing retention rate rising and days‑on‑market falling for both single‑family and condo sellers. We would expect homes to continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price if the market heats up.
Going forward, we do believe that the fundamentals of the market are strong, with demand high, prices at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a gradually improving economy. Accordingly, we expect the Putnam market to close the year strong, and to eventually drive some meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley in the third quarter of 2016 defied the standard economic laws of supply and demand. Sales were up and inventory was down, but prices were flat across the board. Why? Maybe buyers are just leery of making a move during a tumultuous presidential election year.
Sales activity continues to increase throughout the region. Sales were up compared to the third quarter of last year in every county in the Report, ranging from a modest 2% increase in Westchester to a robust 18% rise in Orange. We’ve now seen sustained sales increases for almost five years, with regional year‑on‑year sales going up in 17 out of the last 19 quarters. And we’re reaching transactional totals we haven’t seen since the height of the last seller’s market, with the region hitting 15,000 single‑family home sales for the first time since 2016. We did see some signs, though, that the pace of growth might be slowing: regional sales were up only 8% for the quarter, relatively disappointing in a rolling year where sales rose almost 17%.
Inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. The supply of homes for sale is falling throughout the region, down in almost every county in the Report: dropping 20% in Westchester, 31% in Putnam, 17% in Rockland, and 21% in Orange. And if you look at the months of inventory available given the current rate of sales, we are already approaching the six‑month inventory level that usually signals a tight seller’s market. For single‑family homes, Westchester is already below six months at 5.8, and the other counties are getting close: Putnam at 7.3, Rockland at 6.4, and Orange at 8.1. And for condos, it’s the same story: Westchester at 3.7, Putnam at 4.7, Rockland at 7.1, and Orange right at 6.0.
So with demand up and supply down, why aren’t prices rising? Prices were down modestly throughout the region, and in most of the counties in this Report. We can think of three reasons.
- Disproportionate strength in the lower‑end markets. The fact that sales were up 18% in lower‑priced Orange and only 2% in higher‑priced Westchester might be a sign that demand is stronger at the entry‑level. That would tend to drive overall pricing down a bit.
- Buyers are still spooked by the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008‑09. Maybe buyers aren’t yet willing to give in to seller demands for higher prices – that would blunt the impact of declines in inventory, and might also explain why sales increases have tapered a bit.
- The impact of a particularly tumultuous presidential election year. It’s tough to get data on this, because we have so few presidential election years to use as comparison points. But real estate agents have traditionally complained about the difficulty of selling homes during a presidential election – and we expect that this election is especially fraught for home buyers (on both sides).
Going forward, we are hopeful that the market will close the year well. The fundamentals of our regional market are strong: demand is high, inventory is falling, interest rates are near historic lows, and the overall economy is doing fine. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to outpace 2015 levels, and believe it’s only a matter of time before these falling inventory levels start driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Putnam County
The Putnam County housing market surged in the second quarter of 2016, with dramatic increases in both sales and prices.
Sales. Putnam sales spiked in the second quarter, with single‑family home closings up over 36% compared to last year. The Putnam market is just sizzling, with transactions up in eight straight quarters and 16 out of the last 17. Indeed, the 1,049 closings marked the first time we have seen Putnam top 1,000 sales in a 12‑month period since early 2006, at the tail end of the last seller’s market. Condo sales were also strong, rising over 14% for the quarter and now up 31% for the rolling year.
Prices. These sustained levels of buyer demand had their expected impact on pricing, with single‑family prices up across the board compared to last year: 3% on average, 10% at the median, and 7% in the price‑per‑square foot. These results were consistent with the rolling year appreciation, which was up 3% on average, 7% at the median, and 3% in the price‑per‑square foot. Condo pricing was a little more mixed, but the overall trend was strongly positive.
Inventory. Inventory was down again, falling 38% to 8.7 months of active single‑family listings and 5.4 months for condos. Anything below six months usually signifies a tight seller’s market, which would continue to drive the kind of appreciation we are seeing in Putnam.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that single‑family sellers were gaining leverage with buyers, with the listing retention rate rising and days‑on‑market falling. The retention rate in condos was flat, but the days‑on‑market fell severely, dropping 25% to under six months of market time. We would expect homes to continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price as the market heats up.
Going forward, while we do not believe that the current levels of price appreciation are sustainable, we do believe that the fundamentals of the market are strong, with demand high, prices at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a gradually improving economy. Accordingly, we expect Putnam to enjoy a robust summer market, and experience more modest price appreciation through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2016, with sharply rising sales finally starting to have an impact on pricing, particularly in the mid- and entry‑priced markets throughout the region.
Sales. Activity continues to surge, with regional sales up over 26% compared to the second quarter of last year, and rising in every county in the Rand Report. We’ve now had sales going up for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 16 out of the last 18 quarters. Most importantly, we’re now seeing sustained sales increases driving sales totals to levels that rival the height of the last seller’s market, with almost 15,000 single‑family homes and 3,000 condos sold over the past 12 months.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. In the real estate industry, we measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, and consider anything under six months of inventory as an indicator of a “seller’s market.” Well, we are not yet under six months in any of our regional markets, but we’re moving in that direction, with months of single‑family inventory down 24% in Westchester, 38% in Putnam, 32% in Rockland, 39% in Orange, and 25% in Dutchess. Condo inventory was also down, falling 38% in Westchester, 48% in Putnam, 9% in Rockland, 29% in Orange, and 18% in Dutchess. Both Westchester and Putnam condos are now below six months worth of inventory, and other counties are closing in on the threshold.
Prices. These sustained surges in sales activity are not, though, yet having a widespread impact on pricing. You’ll notice on the accompanying graph that regional average prices have been ticking down for the past year or so. This is a little surprising, given that basic economics tells us that increasing demand coupled with falling inventory should drive prices higher. But we caution you not to read too much into the regional price decline, because the relative strength of activity in the lower priced markets (Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Dutchess) compared to Westchester has changed the mix of properties sold over the past year. Indeed, if you look at individual counties, we had price appreciation in Putnam, Rockland, and Dutchess, and mixed results in Orange. It was only in Westchester that we had prices go down, but even there we believe that the drop was largely caused by a relative lack of demand in the very high end of the market, for homes selling above $3 million. In other words, both the regional price decline and the price drop in Westchester are partly caused by the relative strength of lower‑priced markets compared to higher‑priced markets throughout the region.
Going forward, we expect a robust summer market. The fundamentals of our regional market are strong: demand is rising, inventory is falling, interest rates are near historic lows, and the overall economy is doing fine. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to outpace 2015 levels, and believe it’s only a matter of time before the sustained increases in buyer demand start driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Putnam Market Overview
Putnam County sales and prices both spiked in the first quarter of 2016, with transactions again reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the first quarter, with single.family home sales spiking over 35% compared to last year and now up over 21% for the rolling year. Sales have now been going up for over four years, with transactions up in seven straight quarters and 15 out of the last 16. With 976 sales for the rolling year, we’re approaching the 1,000-sale mark that we have not hit since early 2006 at the tail end of the last seller’s market. We saw the same results with condos, with sales up over 35% for the quarter and the year.
Prices. After a disappointing 2015, single.family prices started the new year with a bang, spiking over 12% on average, 10% at the median, and up just a tick in the price-per-square foot. For the rolling year, prices were up at a similarly torrid pace, rising almost 4% on average and 8% at the median. Even though these types of increases are not sustainable, we do believe that Putnam’s pricing will continue to appreciate this year, particularly as inventory continues to tighten.
Inventory. Indeed, the “months of inventory” indicator fell 24% from last year’s first quarter and is now down to under 8.0 months for single.family homes. Obviously, we’re already seeing the impact of the declining inventory on pricing, and we expect that to continue through the spring market.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were flat, with both the listing retention rate and the days on market relatively stable. We would expect homes to start selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price as the market heats up.
Condos. The story was different for condos prices, which were down sharply for the quarter, even while the rolling year prices were relatively flat or up slightly. The condo market is very small, though, so it’s prone to skewing by a few outliers.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand will continue through a robust spring market, although we do not expect that the spike in prices is sustainable over the long term. The fundamentals of the market, though, are good, with prices still at attractive levels, buyer demand high, interest rates low, and the economy generally improving.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market in the first quarter of 2016 picked up where 2015 left off, with another surge in sales activity that is still not yet having a widespread impact on home prices. With inventory declining throughout the region, though, we believe that we will start seeing meaningful price appreciation before the end of the year.
In our last Rand Report, we welcomed readers to the next “seller’s market,” predicting that 2016 would be marked by increasing sales, declining inventory, and rising prices. So far, we’re right on two out of the three predictions: sales continue to go up, inventory continues to go down, but prices have not yet taken off throughout the region.
Sales. Activity continues to surge across the region. Transactions were up in every single county in the Report, and collectively rose over 23% compared to the first quarter of last year and over 18% for the rolling year. This is nothing new – we’ve been watching sales go up quarter after quarter for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 15 out of the last 17 quarters. Indeed, the region closed over 14,000 single-family sales over the past 12 months, which is the highest rolling year total since the middle of 2006 – at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. In the real estate industry, we measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, and consider anything under six months of inventory as an indicator of a “seller’s market.” Well, we are not yet under six months in any of our regional markets, but we’re getting close, with Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland all under eight months. More importantly, inventory is tightening across the board, down sharply in most of the counties.
Prices. You’ll notice on the accompanying graph that regional sales prices have been ticking down for the past year, and went down again in the first quarter. How can that be? Why would prices be going down even while sales and inventory are going up? Well, the explanation is that it’s just an optical illusion. Don’t believe your lying eyes – prices are actually rising.
Here’s why: right now, the market is strongest in the lower.priced markets, which is disproportionately increasing the number of lower priced sales and thereby skewing the pricing. We see that most clearly in the countywide numbers, with sales up much more sharply in the lower priced markets. While sales in the highest priced market in Westchester are up only 9%, the other regional markets are spiking: Putnam up 21%, Rockland up 20%, Orange up 28%, and Dutchess up 29%. As a result, Westchester sales accounted for only 36% of the sales in the region in the first quarter of this year, compared to 40% last year and as much as 50% in prior years. So it follows that if higher priced Westchester sales are making up a smaller part of the overall transactional mix, then the average price for the region is going to drop.
Indeed, the average price was up in four out of the five counties in the region: rising 12% in Putnam, 3% in Rockland, 3% in Orange, and up just a tick in Dutchess. Prices were only down in – you guessed it! – Westchester, and we believe it’s for the exact same reason: strength in the lower end of the market. Even within Westchester, the demand was much stronger in the entry-level coop and condo markets, which had higher sales increases, rising prices, and lower levels of inventory. It follows that if the condo and coop markets were so strong, then the lowest end of the single.family market was probably also a lot more active than the middle or high end. So don’t read too much into the regional price drop, or even the decline in Westchester single-family homes.
Going forward, we expect a robust spring market. All the fundamentals point to a burgeoning “seller’s market,” with demand high, inventory falling, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to go up, and that the strength in the lower priced markets will gradually extend throughout all price points.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Activity in Putnam surged in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply, hitting levels we have not seen in over ten years. And although prices took a dip in the quarter, they were relatively flat for the year.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the fourth quarter, rising almost 12% from last year and up almost 21% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for four years, with closings up for six straight quarters and 14 out of the last 15. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 918 calendar sales being the most since 2005.
Prices. Pricing was disappointing, with the quarterly price down across the board after a robust showing in the third quarter. Indeed, for the year, prices were down just slightly, after rising for the past two calendar years.
Negotiability. The good news for prices came in the inventory numbers, which were down sharply. The months-of-inventory fell almost 21% from last year, down to below 9.0 months for the first time in over 10 years. With inventory tightening, we would expect negotiability to decline, which would tend to drive prices up as buyers chase fewer opportunities and homes sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly up, rising over 22% for the quarter and over 30% for the year. In this case, though, the surge in activity has already been felt in the pricing, with the average up over 11% for the quarter and over 9% for the year.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand coupled with a declining inventory are likely to drive some meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q4
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market finished 2015 strong, with another surge in activity that drove sales up almost 17% for the year. And although this sustained increase in buyer demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing, declining levels of inventory are now signaling that meaningful price appreciation is imminent.
In other words – welcome to the seller’s market! As we have noted before in this Report, our housing market tends to run in approximately 15-year cycles from the beginning of a seller’s market to the end of a buyer’s market. We saw this cycle play out from 1981-1997, with prices and activity rising for about seven years through most of the 1980s (the “seller’s market”) and then falling for about eight years from 1989-1997 (the “buyer’s market”). And we saw it again in another 15-year period from the seller’s market that started in the late 1990s, ran through the crash of 2008-09, and then transitioned to the buyer’s market that ran through the past few years.
Well, as we come into 2016, we are now on the cusp of a new cycle, a seller’s market that has been slow to develop over the past few years, but is now showing real signs of taking off. Here are some of the reasons why:
First, sales activity has now been generally up for over four years. Year-on-year sales have now gone up for 14 out of the past 16 quarters, culminating in almost 13,500 single-family sales this year – the highest total we have seen since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005. By comparison, yearly regional closings routinely fell below the 10,000 sale mark after the market correction in 2008.
Second, inventory levels have dropped significantly, with some markets going below the crucial six-months-of-inventory mark. We measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, which we calculate by taking the number of homes on the market and dividing them by the average number of homes that are selling every month. So, if we have 1,000 homes on the market, and we are selling about 100 homes on average every month, we say that we have about 10 “months of inventory.” According to industry standards, about six months of inventory signals a “balanced” market: anything less, and buyers chasing scarcity are likely to create bidding wars that will drive prices up. And for the first time in about 10 years, we’ve seen one of our markets go under six months of inventory, with Westchester single-family homes at about 5.1 and condos at about 3.9. The other markets are above six months, but they are definitely trending downward and are hitting levels we have not seen since the last seller’s market.
Third, as a result of declining inventory and rising demand, we are starting to see some “green shoots” in pricing at the county level. It doesn’t look like much, particularly since the overall regional price fell this year due to some regression in Westchester, but we are seeing a slight upward trend in most of the counties over the past several years. It takes time for changes in activity to impact pricing, but basic economics tells us that four years of rising sales coupled with a declining inventory should drive prices up.
Going forward, we expect that 2016 will mark the clear beginning of a fully realized seller’s market. The economy is in reasonably good shape, interest rates are still near historic lows, and homes are now priced pretty attractively given that they’re still at 2003-04 levels without adjustments for inflation. So we see no reason why buyer demand would fall off from its current levels. And unless we see a flood of new inventory hitting the market, those buyers are going to be chasing a declining number of homes for sale, which is likely to drive prices up in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
