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Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market plateaued in the third quarter of 2016, with sales flattening out after a torrid start to the year and pricing struggling to gain traction. With inventory levels falling throughout the region, though, we expect that the market might gain strength going into 2017.
Sales were basically flat throughout the region. After a strong start to the year, sales slowed during the third quarter, rising only about 2%. The good news is that if you look at the rolling year, sales were up almost 10%, continuing a trend we’ve been watching for about five years. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid‑2000’s, sales are up about 40% from the bottom of the market in 2009 and are moving in a positive direction.
We are also seeing inventory continue to tighten. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. And that’s about where we are trending throughout the region, with regional inventory down over 25%. Indeed, Bergen is already below six months of inventory, and Morris, Essex, and Passaic are all below nine months.
Even with sales up and inventory down, though, average prices have been dropping throughout the region. We have been a little disappointed in the pricing this year, after what looked to be “green shoots” of price appreciation toward the end of 2015. Certainly, basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. It might be that the market is simply stronger in the lower‑end than the middle‑ or higher‑end, which is changing the mix of properties sold and skewing the averages. Or it could still just be a matter of time before falling inventory and rising demand starts impacting pricing.
Going forward, we still believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe that better days are ahead, and that we are likely to see modest but meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Sussex County
The Sussex County housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2016, with sales up significantly even while prices continued to struggle.
Sales. Sussex sales were up sharply in the second quarter, rising 23% from last year and finishing the year up over 26%. This continued a trend that we’ve been watching for the past four years, with year‑on‑year sales up almost every quarter since 2012. Indeed, Sussex closings are now reaching levels that we have not seen since the tail end of the last seller’s market, with sales now up about 80% from their 2011 bottom. So the market is in much stronger shape than it has been at any time since the 2008‑09 market correction.
Prices. This spike in sales, though, has not yet had an impact on pricing, which has deteriorated even while buyer demand increased. Average and median sales prices were down again in the second quarter, falling almost 2% on average and at the median. For the year, prices are down even more, falling about 4% on average and at the median for the rolling year. It takes time for increases in demand to drive pricing changes, so we believe this will turn around if buyer demand remains at its current levels.
Inventory. The “months of inventory” indicator measures how long it would take to sell out the existing inventory of homes at the current rate of home sales. In the industry, we generally consider anything below 6 months as a signal for a seller’s market, where tight inventory leads to multiple offer situations, bidding wars, and ultimately appreciating prices. Sussex inventory remains well above that threshold, at 12.4 months, but that’s down over 26% from last year.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were a little mixed. The days‑on‑market fell over 11%, indicating that homes were selling more quickly. But the listing retention rate fell, signaling that sellers were having difficulty getting buyers to accept their listing price.
Going forward, we believe that Sussex is poised for better things. Buyer demand has been strong for almost four years now, which is bound to eventually have a positive effect on prices. With an improving economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near‑historically low interest rates, we expect buyer demand to stay strong through a robust summer market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market continued to surge in the second quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply throughout the region. But rising levels of buyer demand are not yet having any real impact on pricing, which was flat or down in each of the counties.
Sales were up over 13% for the region, rising in every county in the Report. Closings have now been trending up for about five years, ever since the market stabilized after the correction precipitated by the financial crisis of 2008‑09. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid‑2000’s, sales are up about 40% from the bottom of the market and are moving in a positive direction.
We are also seeing inventory continue to tighten. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. That’s where we are right now in Bergen and Morris, with both counties near the 6‑month threshold, and inventory in the other counties is tightening considerably.
Even with sales up and inventory down, though, average prices dropped throughout the region. We have been a little disappointed in the pricing this year, after what looked to be “green shoots” of price appreciation toward the end of 2015. Certainly, basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. But appreciation still eludes us. It might be that the market is simply stronger in the lower‑end than the middle‑ or higher‑end, which is changing the mix of properties sold and skewing the averages. Or it could still just be a matter of time before falling inventory and rising demand starts impacting pricing.
Going forward, we still believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe that price appreciation is coming, and that the region will experience a robust summer market that continues throughout the rest of 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Sussex Market Overview
The Sussex County housing market surged again in the first quarter of 2016, with a dramatic spike in sales that continued a long.term trend of markedly higher transaction rates. Nevertheless, we are still not seeing these sustained levels of buyer demand have their expected impact on pricing, which was down yet again.
Sales. Sussex sales were up sharply in the first quarter, rising over 32% from last year and finishing the year up almost 23%. This continued a trend that we’ve been watching for the past four years, with year-on-year sales up almost every quarter since 2012. Indeed, Essex closings are now reaching levels that we have not seen since the tail end of the last seller’s market, with sales now up almost 80% from their 2011 bottom. So the market is in much stronger shape than it has been at any time since the 2008-09 market correction, with sustained levels of buyer demand.
Prices. This spike in sales, though, has not yet had an impact on pricing, which has deteriorated even while buyer demand increased. Average and median sales prices were down again in the first quarter, falling almost 9% on average and almost 2% at the median. Moreover, prices have been trending downward now for several years, in defiance of what we would expect from normal economic behavior. Generally, it takes time for increases in demand to drive pricing changes, so we believe this will turn around if buyer demand remains at its current levels.
Inventory. The “months of inventory” indicator measures how long it would take to sell out the existing inventory of homes at the current rate of home sales. In the industry, we generally consider anything below six months as a signal for a seller’s market, where tight inventory leads to multiple-offer situations, bidding wars, and ultimately appreciating prices. Sussex inventory remains well above that threshold, at 9.6 months, but that’s down almost 17% from last year, so it’s generally tightening.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – suggested the sellers might be gaining a little bit of negotiating leverage. The days on market fell over 5%, indicating that homes were selling more quickly. And the listing price retention rate was up over a full point, indicating that homes are selling for closer to the asking price.
Going forward, we do expect better things for the Sussex market. We believe that buyer demand will stay strong through 2016, especially with a relatively strong economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near historically low interest rates. And if buyer demand stays at its current levels, we expect that Sussex will at least see prices stabilize during the year, with a chance at meaningful price appreciation by 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Sussex County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
The Sussex County housing market surged in the fourth quarter, with a dramatic spike in sales that continued a yearlong trend of markedly higher transaction rates. Nevertheless, we are still not seeing these sustained levels of buyer demand have their expected impact on pricing.
Sales. Sussex sales were up sharply in the fourth quarter, rising almost 39% from last year and finishing the year up almost 18%. Indeed, Essex closings have now gone up in each of the last four years, during which sales have now increased by almost 80% from their 2011 levels at the bottom of the market. With sustained levels of buyer demand, the market is in much stronger shape than it has been at any time since the 2008-09 market correction.
Prices. This spike in sales, though, has not yet had an impact on pricing, which has actually deteriorated, even while buyer demand increased. Average and median sales prices were down for both the fourth quarter and the full calendar year, which was a little disappointing given the transactional strength in the market. Moreover, prices have been trending downward now for several years, in defiance of what we would expect from normal economic behavior. Generally, it takes time for increases in demand to drive pricing changes, so we believe this will turn around if buyer demand remains at its current levels.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – were mixed. The days-on-market fell dramatically in the quarter, dropping over 13% — and almost a full month! For the year, the market time was down as well, although not as significantly. But we didn’t see the same dynamic in the listing retention rate, which actually fell a bit for the quarter and was flat for the year. Generally, we expect that as buyer demand heats up, homes will sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price. We’re starting to see quicker sales, but nothing that would indicate that sellers are gaining leverage in their negotiations with buyers.
Going forward, we do expect better things for the Sussex market. We believe that buyer demand will stay strong through 2016, especially with a relatively strong economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near-historically low interest rates. And if buyer demand stays at its current levels, we expect that Sussex will start to see some meaningful price appreciation by the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for the Northern New Jersey Region for 2015Q4
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished 2015 in a flourish, with sharp increases in sales and emerging signs of meaningful price appreciation. As 2016 begins, the region seems to be moving into a fully-realized seller’s market that will be characterized by declining inventory, increasing sales, and rising prices.
Sales were up over 8% for the region, rising in every county in the Report. Closings have now been trending up for about five years, ever since the market stabilized after the correction precipitated by the financial crisis of 2008-09. Although we are not yet at transactional levels that we saw during the last seller’s market of the mid-2000’s, the number of homes sold in 2015 was about 40% higher than at the bottom of the market.
Although prices were basically flat, they showed signs of emerging “green shoots.” The regional sales price was up less than 1%, but it did mark the third straight year of rising prices, even though the increases have been marginal. On the other hand, pricing is now about 8% higher than at the bottom of the market, so the trend is generally positive. Interestingly, pricing was stronger in the middle of the market, with mid-priced counties like Passaic generally faring a little better than higher-priced areas like Bergen or Morris.
Most importantly, we are starting to see a tightening of inventory. The industry measures the impact of inventory by calculating the “months of inventory” remaining on the market: i.e., the number of homes for sale divided by the average monthly transactions. So, for example, if we have 1,000 homes for sale and we close about 100 sales a month, we say that’s about 10 months of inventory. According to industry standards, six months worth of inventory signals a balanced market: any less, and we are likely to see too many buyers chasing too few homes, which will tend to lead to multiple offer situations, then bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices. Well, right now, we’re starting to see markets that are under 10 months of inventory, with some trending toward six months, signaling that we are moving into a tighter market.
Going forward, we believe that we are heading for a seller’s market. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, and at some point that increased buyer demand is going to start driving down inventory and driving up pricing. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we expect that the region will experience rising sales and prices through a robust spring market and throughout 2016.
Editor’s Note: We are delighted to present this comprehensive Report on the Northern New Jersey housing market for the first time. Although we have been providing reports to our clients on the Bergen, Passaic, and Morris County markets for several years, we are now expanding our focus to also cover Hudson, Essex, and Sussex Counties.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
