The Dutchess County housing market surged forward in the second quarter of 2016, with strong increases in sales activity coupled with modest but promising signs of price appreciation.
Sales. Dutchess single‑family home sales were up again in the second quarter, rising 18% from last year. This marked the seventh quarter in a row with year‑on‑year‑sales increases, leading to a rolling year where sales were up almost 28%. With almost 2,400 sales over the rolling year, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.
Prices. We continue to see the first “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess, with prices up just slightly on average but rising over 5% at the median. For the rolling year, pricing is flat, but we are starting to see signs that prices might be moving in a positive direction. With the sustained increases in sales activity that we’ve seen for the past two years, we are bound to see an impact on pricing eventually.
Inventory. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down over 25% to 13.5 months of active single‑family listings. Although we are nowhere near the six‑month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support the price appreciation we are expecting.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage with buyers. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up above 96% for the first time since the last seller’s market. And the days‑on‑market fell again, now down below six months.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising over 8% and prices a little mixed. For the year, condo sales are up over 28%, but pricing is down on average and at the median. Inventory continues to tighten, though, which could stabilize pricing later this year.
Going forward, we believe that Dutchess is on the precipice of meaningful price appreciation. Sales have been up for several years in a row, and it’s only a matter of time before these levels of buyer demand start driving prices up. With a stable economy, low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess is poised for better things by the end of this year.