Fourth-Quarter 2018: Real Estate Market Report – Bronx, NY

With Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty’s recent expansion into the Bronx, we are delighted to present the Rand Quarterly Market Report for Bronx County. We have been providing these quarterly market analyses for almost 15 years for the markets we service, which include Westchester and the Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and now the Bronx. We hope you enjoy the Report, and if you have any questions, please reach out to your Rand Realty agent.

The Bronx housing market surged again in the fourth quarter of 2018, with prices rising sharply in a growing seller’s market, even while low levels of inventory held back sales growth. Going forward, we expect that strong demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through a robust winter and spring market.

Prices were up across the board. For all property types, the average price rose over 13% from the fourth quarter of last year, and was relatively balanced: single‑family homes were up almost 6% on average and over 10% at the median, multi‑families were up 8% on average and almost 9% at the median; coops were up 10% on average and 8% at the median; and condos were up over 40% on average and 67% at the median. We caution not to read too much into the striking condo results because the market is relatively thin (only 45 sales in the quarter) and can be skewed by a couple of outliers. That said, even for the more reliable full 2018 year, we have some eye‑popping results for Bronx condos: up 16% on average and 13% at the median. Moreover, we’re seeing sustained price appreciation across the board, with the average price rising over 13% for all property types and up in every market segment.

But sales were down overall, and for most property types. For the borough as a whole, sales fell about 8%, even while they were relatively flat for the year. Most likely, we’re just seeing the impact of restricted inventory holding back sales, with the market lacking enough “fuel for the fire” to satiate demand. We would expect that these rising prices will eventually tempt more sellers into the market, which could help drive sales up.

Inventory continues to fall. We measure inventory by looking at the number of homes available for sale, and the rate at which homes are selling. A balanced market has about six months of inventory, meaning that at the current rate of home sales, it would take six months to sell all the homes currently available. What we’re seeing, though, is a clear sign of a seller’s market, with the months of inventory well below six months for all property types: 4.2 for single‑family homes, 5.0 for multi‑families, 4.9 for coops, and 5.6 for condos.

Overall, this is exactly what a robust seller’s market looks like. We have high demand and falling inventory driving sales and prices up throughout the borough. Textbook economics tells us that rising prices will eventually attract more sellers into the market, but in the meantime we can expect that high demand will continue to drive prices up through a robust winter and spring market.

Editor’s Note: This report includes only those sales reported through the Hudson Valley Gateway Multiple Listing Service.

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