Fourth Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Hudson County, New Jersey

The Hudson County housing market continued to struggle toward the end of 2019, fighting through the impact of the 2018 Tax Reform’s cap on state and local tax deductions (“SALT Cap”). The SALT Cap has had a disproportionate impact on higher-end home buyers, which has slowed down the Manhattan housing market and adjacent high-priced markets like the Hudson County “Gold Coast.”  For the quarter, overall sales fell 8%, finishing the 2019 calendar year down over 5% and down for all property types. Average pricing was down a tick, mostly driven by a 6% decline in condos, offsetting a 3% increase for single-family homes and a 9% increase for multi-families. For the 2019 calendar year, overall pricing was up a little over 1%, the lowest year-on-year price increase since 2011, at the bottom of the market. That said, the average price of a Hudson County home is now at an all-time high, after a staggering nine-year run of sharp appreciation. Going forward, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, low-interest rates, and relatively low levels of inventory. Accordingly, we expect to see the market stabilize in the first quarter and throughout 2020.