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Fourth Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Northern New Jersey Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished 2017 strong, with prices up even while declining inventory throughout the region stifled sales growth. With demand high, and available homes low, we believe that homeowners will continue to enjoy price increases throughout 2018.
Regional sales were up, but not in every county. Regional sales were up slightly for the quarter, rising almost 2% from the fourth quarter of last year, even while some counties like Bergen and Morris were down slightly. We believe that a lack of inventory is stifling sales growth, simply because we don’t have enough “fuel for the fire” to satiate the existing buyer demand. That said, sales in every county were up for the full calendar year, with the 27,000 regional sales in 2017 representing almost a 6% increase from 2016, and a full 75% increase from the bottom of the market in 2011. Inventory was down significantly again. The number of homes for sale continued to fall in the fourth quarter, dropping in every county in the region. Indeed, most of our Northern New Jersey markets have now fallen below the six‑months‑of‑inventory level that traditionally starts to signal a seller’s market: Bergen at 3.4, Passaic at 4.9, Morris at 4.5, and Essex at 4.1. Only Sussex County, at 7.3 months of inventory, is above that six‑month indicator. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing. With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some meaningful price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re starting to see some promising signs: for the 2017 year, the regional average price was up about 1%, and average prices were up in most of the counties in the region: Bergen up 4%, Passaic up 3%, Morris up 3%, Essex up 2%. Again, only Sussex was the outlier, with the average price down about 2%. Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through 2018. Sales have now been increasing for over five years, which has brought inventory below the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a robust seller’s market in 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter Real Estate Market Report: Bergen County Market Overview
Prices in the Bergen County housing market rose again in the third quarter of 2017, even while declining inventory stifled sales growth.
Sales. With inventory continuing to decline, Bergen lacks “fuel for the fire” to satisfy the existing buyer demand. As a result, home sales were relatively flat again, up only about 1% from last year’s third quarter and now up about 4% for the rolling year. This does, though, mark the 12th straight quarter of year‑on‑year sales growth, over three full years of rising sales. What’s holding sales back right now is not a lack of demand, but a lack of inventory. If we start seeing more homes hit the market, we’ll see sales go up sharply.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are having their expected impact on pricing. Bergen prices rose again in the third quarter, up 3% on average and almost 6% at the median. And for the year, prices are now up significantly: rising almost 5% on average and over 4% at the median.
Negotiability. All the negotiability indicators are also signaling a rising seller’s market. Inventory continued to tighten in the third quarter, with the months of inventory falling almost 17% and now down to well under five months. Similarly, homes are continuing to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price: the listing retention rate is now over 97%, and the days‑on‑market is down to under two months. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to see sellers continue to gain negotiating leverage.
Condos. Activity in the Bergen condo market was up in the third quarter, with sales rising almost 5% from last year. Prices were down, though, with the average falling over 3% and the median down almost 6%. With inventory now down well below six months, though, we would expect to eventually see more meaningful price appreciation.
Going forward, we expect Bergen County will enjoy a strong fall market with both rising sales and prices. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near‑historically‑low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004‑05 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017 and into next year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2017, with another increase in sales and modest-but-meaningful price appreciation. With inventory levels continuing to fall throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive a robust seller’s market through rest of the year and into 2018.
Sales surged throughout the region. All the Northern New Jersey markets continued to grow, with regional sales up over 4% and transactions rising in every market in the region: up 1% for Bergen houses, 5% for Bergen condos, 8% in Passaic, 0.4% in Morris, 4% in Essex, and 17% in Sussex. For the rolling year, sales were up 8%, reaching sales levels we have not seen since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up over 75% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
The number of available homes for sale continues to go down. Indeed, inventory was down from last year in every individual county in the Rand Report: Bergen single‑family homes down 17%, and condos down 22%; Passaic down 28%; Morris down 29%; Essex down 29%; and Sussex down 11%. Moreover, most of our Northern New Jersey markets have reached the six‑months‑of‑inventory level that traditionally starts to signal a seller’s market. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing.
With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some “green shoots” of modest price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re starting to see some promising signs: the regional average sales price was flat, but prices were up sharply in Bergen, Passaic, and Morris, even while they continue to struggle in Essex and Sussex.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through the rest of 2017. Sales have now been increasing for five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a strong fall market and a strong 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Bergen County, New Jersey
Prices in the Bergen County housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2017, even while low levels of inventory suppressed sales growth.
Sales. With inventory continuing to decline, Bergen lacks “fuel for the fire” to satisfy the existing buyer demand. As a result, home sales were relatively flat again, up only about 1% from last year’s second quarter and now up less than 4% for the rolling year. This does, though, mark the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year sales growth. What’s holding sales back right now is not a lack of demand, but a lack of inventory. If we start seeing more homes hit the market, we’ll see sales go up sharply.
Prices. Bergen prices spiked again in the second quarter, up 6% on average and almost 5% at the median. That’s probably not a sustainable level of price appreciation, but Bergen homeowners can certainly start to depend on the 3-4% increases that we are seeing on average and at the median for the last rolling year.
Negotiability. Inventory continued to tighten in the second quarter, with the months of inventory falling almost 12% and now down to well under six months, which normally marks the beginning of a seller’s market. Similarly, homes are continuing to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price, which is what we would expect of an emerging seller’s market. The listing retention rate is now almost 97%, and the days-on-market is down to two months. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to see sellers continue to gain negotiating leverage.
Condos. Activity in the Bergen condo market was up sharply in the second quarter, with sales up over 9% from last year. Prices were more mixed, with the average down a tick but the median up almost 4%. With inventory now down well below six months, though, we would expect to see more meaningful price appreciation this year.
Going forward, we expect Bergen County will enjoy a robust Summer market with both rising sales and prices. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near-historically-low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2017, with another sharp increase in sales coupled with some more meaningful signs of price appreciation. With inventory levels continuing to fall throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive a robust seller’s market through the Summer and the rest of 2017.
Sales surged throughout the region. All the Northern New Jersey markets continued their strong start to the year, with regional sales up almost 8% and transactions rising in every market in the region: up 1% for Bergen houses, 9% for Bergen condos, 8% in Passaic, 3% in Morris, 13% in Essex, and 25% in Sussex. For the rolling year, sales were up almost 8%, reaching sales levels we have not seen since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up over 70% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
The number of available homes for sale continues to go down. We calculate the “months of inventory” in a market by measuring the number of homes for sale, and then figuring how long it would take to sell them all given the current absorption rate. The industry considers anything less than six months to be a “tight” inventory that signals the potential of a seller’s market that would drive prices up – and we’re now right at that level. Indeed, inventory was down from last year in every individual county in the Rand Report: Bergen single-family homes down 12%, and condos down 29%; Passaic down 31%; Morris down 31%; Essex down 24%; and Sussex down 26%. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing.
With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some “green shoots” of modest price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re starting to see some promising signs: the regional average sales price was up almost 2% from last year’s second quarter, and the average price was up in every county other than Sussex. Looking at the long-term, the rolling year average sales price was up just a tick, but was up in every county other than Passaic.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through the rest of 2017. Sales have now been increasing for five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a robust Summer market and a strong 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Bergen County, New Jersey
The Bergen County housing market showed continued signs of emerging into a strong seller’s market, with declining inventory holding sales back even while driving prices up dramatically.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales were up about 1% from last year’s first quarter, the tenth straight quarter of year-on-year sales growth. For the rolling year, sales were up a little more robustly, rising 7%. What’s holding sales back right now is not a lack of demand, but a lack of inventory. If we start seeing more homes hit the market, we’ll see sales go up sharply.
Prices. Bergen prices spiked in the first quarter, rising almost 8% on average and 5% at the median. That’s probably not a sustainable level of price appreciation, but Bergen homeowners can certainly start to depend on the 1-2% increases that we are seeing on average and at the median for the last rolling year.
Inventory. Single-family inventory continued to tighten in the first quarter, with the months of inventory falling over 21% and now down to 4.4 months. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. With inventory now well below that six-month mark, and falling into the “seller’s market” territory, we will continue to see upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. Homes were selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, which is what we would expect of an emerging seller’s market. The listing retention rate is now about 96%, and the days-on-market is well under three months. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to see sellers continue to gain negotiating leverage.
Condos. Activity in the Bergen condo market was up sharply in the first quarter, with sales up almost 11% from last year. Prices were more mixed, with the average down over 4% but the median up almost 2%. With inventory now down below six months, though, we would expect to see more meaningful price appreciation this year.
Going forward, we expect Bergen County will enjoy a robust Spring market with both rising sales and prices. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near-historically-low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market surged ahead in the first quarter of 2017, starting the year with a dramatic increase in home sales coupled with modest-but-meaningful signs of price appreciation. With inventory levels continuing to fall throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive a robust seller’s market through the Spring and the rest of 2017.
Sales surged throughout the region. All the Northern New Jersey markets got off to a strong start to the year, with regional sales up almost 12% and transactions rising in every market in the region: up 1% in Bergen, 30% in Passaic, 8% in Morris, 12% in Essex, and 32% in Sussex. For the rolling year, sales were up over 9%, reaching sales levels we have not seen since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up over 65% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
The number of available homes for sale continues to go down. We measure the “months of inventory” in a market by looking at the number of homes for sale, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all given the current absorption rate. The industry considers anything fewer than six months to be a “tight” inventory that signals the potential of a seller’s market that would drive prices up — and we’ve now seen this market cross below that line for the second quarter in a row. Indeed, inventory was down from last year in every individual county in the Report: Bergen single-family homes down 21%, and condos down 34%; Passaic down 38%; Morris down 34%; Essex down 39%; and Sussex down 36%. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing. With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some “green shoots” of modest price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re beginning to see some promising signs: the regional average sales price was up almost 1% from last year’s first quarter, and the average price was up in almost every county in the report.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through the rest of 2017. Sales have now been increasing for five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a robust Spring market and a strong 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Bergen County, New Jersey
The Bergen County housing market finished strong in the fourth quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply and prices showing signs of meaningful appreciation.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales were up almost 11% for the quarter, the ninth straight quarter where we’ve seen year-on-year sales growth. And for the year, sales were also up 11%, marking the third straight year of sales increases. Indeed, sales in the 2016 calendar year hit their highest levels since 2005, and are now up 55% from their 2011 bottom.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand showed signs of finally having their expected impact on pricing. Single-family home prices were up almost 4% on average and 3% at the median compared to the fourth quarter of last year, the largest quarterly increase in almost three years. Even with that strong fourth quarter, though, the calendar year was relatively mixed, with the average price down a tick and the median up just about 1%.
Inventory. Bergen single-family inventory tightened dramatically, with the number of available single-family homes falling almost 30% and the months of inventory now down under four months, well below the six-month mark that usually denotes a “tight” market. With inventory this low, and demand staying strong, we would expect some upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were relatively mixed for single-family homes, with the days on market down a little and the listing retention rate up a bit. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to start seeing sellers gain negotiating leverage, with homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condos. The Bergen condo market was relatively flat in the fourth quarter, with sales down a tick and prices mixed. For the year, though, the results were more encouraging, with sales up 10% and prices up about 4% across the board.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a strong seller’s market. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near-historically low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will drive meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall – Northern New Jersey
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished strong in the final quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply even while pricing continued to struggle. But with inventory levels falling throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive meaningful if modest price appreciation in 2017.
Sales were strong throughout the region. After a relatively slow third quarter, regional sales surged back, rising almost 11% and up sharply in every county in the report: rising 11% in Bergen, 14% in Passaic, 12% in Morris, 11% in Essex, and 18% in Sussex. This strong fourth quarter helped the region close the 2016 year up almost 11% in sales, reaching the highest yearly transactional total in over ten years, since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up 63% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Inventory continues to tighten. We determine the “months of inventory” in a market by measuring the number of homes for sale, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all given the current absorption rate. The industry considers anything less than six months to be a “tight” inventory that signals the potential of a seller’s market that would drive prices up. Well, the months of inventory for the Northern New Jersey region has now crossed over that line, dropping down to 5.3 months. Moreover, inventory was down in every individual county in the Rand Report, and is now below or nearing the six-month level: Bergen single-family homes at 3.6 months and condos at 6.1 months, Passaic at 8.3, Morris at 7.3, Essex at 7.0, and Sussex at 11.3. Certainly, if inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see upward pressure on pricing.
Even with sales up and inventory down, though, average prices have been flat or falling throughout the region. Basic economics of supply and demand tells us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we should expect to see some meaningful price increases. But prices languished, with the regional price down just a tick from last year’s fourth quarter, but down almost 2% for the year. Moreover, the average prices for the year were down in almost all of the individual counties, rising only for Bergen condos, with just a tick up for Sussex. And maybe that’s the tell it might be that the market is simply stronger at the lower end, so lower priced homes (like Bergen condos and Sussex properties) are making up a larger percentage of the mix of properties sold.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will drive price appreciation in 2017. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe that better days are ahead, and that we are likely to see modest but meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Bergen County, New Jersey
The Bergen County housing market plateaued in the third quarter of 2016, with sales and prices flat over the summer after a spike in spring activity.
Sales. Bergen sales were flat in the third quarter, rising less than 1% after a pretty robust period over the past two years. Indeed, even with that minimal sales increase, Bergen has now seen eight straight quarters of year‑on‑year sales growth. That sustained period of increasing buyer demand resulted in a rolling year where sales were up 10%, with the 6,657 sales marking the highest twelve‑month total in over ten years — at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Unfortunately, we are still not seeing this sustained increase in buyer demand have any impact on pricing. For the quarter, prices were mixed, with the average down almost 2% and the median up 1%. The same was true for the rolling year, where the average price fell over 1% and the median was flat. As we’ve said before in this Report, Bergen County prices have been flat for almost eight years now, after the sharp correction in 2008‑09. It might be that the demand is simply stronger in the lower‑priced markets, which is driving the average and median price down by changing the mix of properties sold. If that’s the case, then it’s just a matter of time before prices start to go up.
Inventory. Bergen inventory continues to tighten, with the number of available single‑family homes falling 26% and the months of inventory now below the six‑month mark that usually denotes a “tight” market. Indeed, declining inventory might be contributing to the relative slackness in sales, if buyers are on the sidelines waiting for new homes to hit the market.
Condominiums. Bergen condo sales and prices were both up sharply, demonstrating that buyer demand in the county might be particularly strong in the entry‑level markets. Condo sales were up almost 7%, and pricing was up 4% on average and 5% at the median. This continues a long‑term trend we’ve been watching, with the rolling year average price up almost 5% and the median up 3%. Those are sustainable price increases, and probably foreshadow what we’ll see next year with single‑family homes.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a strong seller’s market. Although we are not yet seeing price appreciation in the single‑family market, we expect that increases in buyer demand, coupled with a decline of inventory, will eventually drive modest but meaningful appreciation by mid-2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
