Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
So What’s Going on in the Dutchess County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Dutchess County housing market continued to enjoy sustained levels of increasing sales activity, but we’re still seeing a difficult pricing environment. These levels of buyer demand are bound to push up prices eventually, but we understand if Dutchess homeowners and sellers are getting impatient.
Sales. Dutchess County single-family home sales surged in the second quarter, with transactions up 47.2% from last year. Indeed, the 667 quarterly sales represented the highest total since the third quarter of 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market. Similarly, the 2,080 rolling year sales is the highest total we have seen since 2007. For comparison, note that Dutchess closed about 1,500 sales in all of 2008. .
Prices. Even with this torrid activity, pricing was still soft, with the average down 5.6%, the median down 0.8%%, and the price-per-square foot falling almost 20%. Over the longer term, we’re seeing some pricing challenges, with the average price down about 3% over the past 12 months. We keep expecting Dutchess prices to rebound, especially at these torrid levels of sales activity, but full recovery from the effects of the market correction remains elusive.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators also show that Dutchess sellers are still struggling to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up above 95%. And the days-on-market fell just a bit, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly robust, with sales up 44.2%. Unfortunately, we saw the same pricing dynamic, with prices down significantly across the board.
Going forward, we believe that Dutchess is poised for price appreciation, but we remain puzzled as to why it hasn’t happened yet. Basic economics tells us that increased demand coupled with stable inventory drives up prices, so we remain hopeful that we will see meaningful price appreciation by 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Orange County housing market continued to surge in the third quarter, with sales up dramatically in both single-family and condo markets. Pricing was more mixed, but it’s only a matter of time before these sustained levels of buyer demand drive meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Orange County sales spiked again in the third quarter, rising 31.5% from last year and over 25% for the rolling year. We have now seen sustained sales growth for more than three years, with transactions up four quarters in a row and 13 out of the last 14. Indeed, we are starting to see closings approaching “seller market levels,” with the 880 sales the highest since the third quarter of 2006, and the 2,714 yearlong sales the highest since 2007. To put this in perspective, we note that Orange closed about 1,200 yearly sales in each 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.
Prices. Prices were mixed, but “mixed” is a lot better than prices have been in the past few years. Indeed, Orange showed small signs of progress, with the average up 1.4%, the median down 0.4%, and the price-per-square foot up 1.6%. Prices are still down for the year, but at least the trajectory is pointing upward. We believe that prices have fallen as far as they will go, down to 2002-03 levels.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were both relatively flat: homes are selling a little more quickly, down from 202 days to 190 days, and are also selling for a bit closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up to 95.5%. We expect that sellers will continue to gain leverage as the market tightens.
Condominiums. The condo market simply exploded in the third quarter, with sales up more than 50%. Even with that surge in activity, though, we are still seeing significant downward pressure on Orange condo pricing, because the gap between single-family and condo prices is narrow enough to draw buyers into buying homes instead of condos.
Going forward, we believe that Orange County will not be able to sustain its current torrid level of sales growth, especially now that sales are close to seller market levels. But we still see significant room for price appreciation, given that prices are at attractive 2003 levels and rates are still near historic lows. Even with activity leveling off, we expect that demand will stay strong, and that will start to push prices up by 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Rockland County housing market surged in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply and prices continuing to show signs of recovery. Although activity is likely to ease up a bit in the fourth quarter, Rockland still has ample room for both transactional and price growth over the longer-term.
Sales. Rockland sales were up sharply, rising 26.5% from the third quarter of last year and now up 16.4% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over three years, with transactions up for the last four quarters and 12 out of the last 13. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 602 quarterly closings the highest since the third quarter of 2004, and the 1,721 yearly sales the highest since 2006
Prices. This sustained surge in buyer demand had its expect impact on pricing, with prices up across the board: up 5.9% on average, 2.4% at the median, and 3.5% in the price-per-square foot. Average prices have now risen in three out of the last four quarters, and six out of the last nine. Other than a peak we briefly hit during the artificial home-buyer tax credit bounce in 2010, this was the highest quarterly average sales price point reached since the market correction in 2008.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were mixed, with the listing price retention rate rising sharply but the days-on-market flat. Going forward, we expect that the retention rate will continue to increase and the days-on-market will drop as the market tightens, strengthening sellers’ negotiating positions.
Condos. The condo market fell sharply, defying a trend throughout the region this quarter that saw the highest levels of growth in the lower priced markets. Even with the decline in closings, though, we saw good news in the pricing, with the average and median both up. Over the longer-term, the rolling year numbers were stronger, with sales up 4.2% and prices up across the board.
Going forward, we expect the Rockland market to continue to strengthen. Although we are already seeing sales near seller market levels, we’ve not yet seen any sustained appreciation in pricing. While sales activity is unlikely to maintain its current torrid pace, we believe that Rockland still has room for growth through the end of the year and into 2016.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Putnam County housing market exploded in the third quarter, with sales up sharply and prices spiking. Although the current rates of growth are probably not sustainable, Putnam still has room for both sales and price increases through 2016.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the third quarter, rising 23.8% from last year and coincidentally up that same 23.8% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for almost four years, with closings up for five straight quarters and 13 out of the last 14. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 291 sales the most since the third quarter of 2005.
Prices. This sustained surge in sales activity had its predicted impact on pricing, with prices up across the board: 9.9% on average, 4.7% at the median, and 7.0% in the price-per-square-foot. For the year, prices were up, just not as sharply, rising 3.4% on average, 2.5% at the median, and 0.4% in the price-per-square-foot.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were more mixed, with the listing retention rate up to 95.5% but the days-on-market rising 6.1%. For the year, listing retention was up and days-on-market were down, supporting the view that sellers are gaining more negotiating leverage.
Condominiums. The condo market exploded in the third quarter, with sales up over 50% and prices up across the board. This is consistent with what we saw throughout the region, with lower-priced entry-level markets experiencing the strongest growth. The yearly numbers, providing a larger sample size, are also impressive, with sales up 34% and average prices up 7.0%.
Going forward, we do not believe that the current rate of sales growth is sustainable, especially given that we’re now seeing sales at rates commensurate with the last decade’s seller’s market. But we do think that Putnam still has room for both sales and price growth, and expect that to continue through the end of the year and into 2016.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Westchester real estate market cooled a bit in the third quarter, if only in comparison to the torrid pace set earlier in the year. Sales were up, but just slightly, and prices were a little soft compared to 2014.
Sales. Single-family sales were up slightly, rising 5.7% from the third quarter of last year, and are now up 4.9% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for almost four years, with year-over-year transactions going up in 14 out of the last 16 quarters. And sales totals are slowly returning to seller market levels, with the 2,060 quarterly closings the highest since 2003 and the 5,570 yearly sales the highest since 2006.
Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down slightly, with the average down 2.6%, the median down 0.3%, and the price-per-square-foot down 0.6%. For the year, prices are more mixed, with the average down just under 1% and the median and price-per-square foot up slightly. We do not think this is anything to worry about – prices spiked prematurely in 2014, rising almost 7% in one year, so they’re easing just a bit now.
Negotiability. The listing retention and days-on-market indicators both indicated that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage. Homes are starting to sell for closer to the asking price, with listing retention up to almost 98%, and they’re selling more quickly, with the days-on-market now down to under 5 months.
Condos & Coops. The condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply and prices generally rising. Activity was way up, much more than with single-family homes, with coop sales rising 12.3% and condo sales up 21.6% from last year. This is consistent with what we saw across the region, with relatively stronger growth in the lower-priced markets.
Going forward, we expect that the Westchester market will continue to outpace sales levels from last year, and that prices will eventually start to gather momentum. With inventories tightening and interest rates near historic lows, we believe that the market is poised to finish the year strong.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q3
The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged forward in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up dramatically throughout the region. More importantly, several counties showed signs of “green shoots” of meaningful price appreciation, reflecting the impact of the sustained increases in buyer demand that we’ve seen over the past few years.
Home sales continued to spike, rising 19% throughout the region. This continued a trend we’ve been tracking for several years, with year-over-year regional sales now up for four out of the last five quarters and 12 out of the last 14. And the trend was widespread, with sales up in every county in the Rand Report: rising 6% in Westchester, 24% in Putnam, 27% in Rockland, 32% in Orange, and 47% in Dutchess. As you can see, sales growth was strongest in the lower-priced markets, which was also true within each county, where sales condo markets generally outpaced single-family homes.
Indeed, we’re now seeing sales at “seller market” levels. The 4,500 single-family regional sales were the highest quarterly total since 2005, and the 13,000 rolling year transactions were the highest since 2007. To put this in perspective, those 13,000 rolling year transactions are about 20% below the 16,000-sale rate at the very height of the seller’s market in 2004-05, but about 60% higher than the 8,000-sale rate we experienced at the very bottom of the market in 2008-09. When it comes to transactional levels, we’re a lot closer to 2005 than 2009.
These sustained increases in buyer demand might be starting to impact pricing. Pricing was relatively mixed, with average prices up in Putnam, Rockland, and Orange, but down in Westchester and Dutchess. This is obviously nothing to get too excited about, but it’s still noteworthy that most of the counties in the Report are starting to see “green shoots” or price appreciation. (Note that the regional price fell about 6%, but that’s only because the relative strength in the lower-priced counties changed the mix of properties sold.)
We believe it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing meaningful price appreciation. As we have said before, it takes time for changes in market activity to impact market psychology. Back in the last seller’s market, sales fell for almost three years before we started to see prices start to go down. And while we’ve now seen over three years of increasing sales activity, we expect that buyers are still skeptical about pricing based on their vivid memories of the market correction of 2008-09. But basic economics tells us that when inventory is stable, and demand is going up, pricing is bound to increase eventually.
Going forward, we expect the market to finish the year strong, with sustained buyer demand eventually driving meaningful price appreciation by the spring market of 2016. With pricing in most of the counties at non-inflation-adjusted 2003-04 levels, rates near historic lows, and a stabilized economy, we believe it’s just a matter of time before we enter a fairly robust seller’s market characterized by increasing demand, narrowing inventory, and rising prices.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q2
This week, Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is releasing its Quarterly Market Report for all the counties it services: Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, and Dutchess Counties in New York; and Bergen, Passaic, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. Below is an excerpt from the report, but you can get the full Report here.
The real estate market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged in the second quarter of 2015, with sales spiking throughout the region. But even with transactions reaching highs that we have not seen in almost ten years, pricing remains stubbornly flat or even down in most of our local markets.
Home sales were torrid, rising almost 15% throughout the region. This continued a trend we’ve seen for most of the last year, marking the third straight quarter of year-on-year sales increases. And the results were impressive not just in comparison to a relatively tepid 2014, with the 3,070 second quarter sales and the 12,258 rolling year sales representing the highest totals since 2007, at the tail end of the last seller’s market. More importantly, the surge was widespread, with sales up sharply in every county in the region: rising 15% in Westchester, 18% in Putnam, 10% in Rockland, 31% in Orange, and 21% in Dutchess. Clearly, buyer demand has come back to the region at levels we have not seen in almost ten years.
This surge in buyer demand did not, though, have its expected impact on pricing, with regional prices down 5.5% from last year. Now, that does not necessarily mean that the average home in the region declined by over 5% in value. Rather, some of the decline is simply a change in the mix of properties sold – after all, if you look at the sales increases listed above, you can see that we saw the strongest results in the lowest-priced counties like Orange and Dutchess. Indeed, we saw the same kind of results within each county, with most of the areas showing more strength in the lower-end of the market. So part of the reason for the decline in pricing is simply that the market was more heavily weighted down by lower-priced homes.
But the main reason for the continued sluggishness of pricing is simply that we are still working our way out of the 2008-2011 market correction. As we have noted before in this Report, it takes time for changes in buyer demand to have an impact on pricing. For example, if you look at the accompanying graph displaying regional sales and prices going back almost 15 years, you can see that sales topped out and started falling sometime in 2004-05, but prices only started to come down in 2008. In other words, it took almost four years for a decline in buyer demand to have an impact on pricing. Similarly, we have argued that it will take several years of increasing demand to start driving prices back up – and you can see that sales only started to climb back up in 2012 or so. So we’re not necessarily surprised that prices are still bouncing around at the current levels.
Going forward, we believe it’s only a matter of time before these sustained increases in buyer demand have an impact on pricing. We’re now going into our fourth year of mostly sustained increases in sales, and basic market economics tells us that increasing demand coupled with stable supply is eventually going to drive prices up. And given that we’re seeing homes at relatively affordable levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we think that meaningful changes in price appreciation in the region are imminent.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE REPORT
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2
This week, Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is releasing its Quarterly Market Report for all the counties it services: Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, and Dutchess Counties in New York; and Bergen, Passaic, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. Below is an excerpt from the report, but you can get the full Report here.
The Westchester real estate market continued to strengthen in the second quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply and inventories tightening. Although pricing was more mixed, we expect that buyer demand will continue to increase and eventually drive meaningful appreciation.
Sales. Single-family sales surged almost 15% above last year’s second quarter, the third straight quarter with year-on-year transactional growth. The 5,459 rolling year closings represented the second-highest 12-month total since mid-2006, at the height of the seller’s market. Similarly, the 7.3 average months of inventory for the prior rolling year was the tightest showing since 2006.
Prices. Prices were a little mixed, particularly in light of the rising activity and tightening inventory, with the average down 1.5%, the median up 0.5%, and the price-per-square-foot up 3.8%. For the rolling year, though, we’re seeing slight price appreciation across the board
Negotiability. The days-on-market and listing retention indicators suggested a tightening market and some negotiating leverage for sellers, with homes selling a little more quickly and for slightly closer to the asking price.
Condos & Coops. The condo and coop markets also flourished, with coop sales up 7.1% and condo sales up 14.2% from last year. Prices were mixed, with the lower-priced coop market seeing some softening and the moderately-priced condo market showing some significant appreciation.
Going forward, we expect that the Westchester market will continue to heat up, with activity rising again in the seasonally strong third quarter. With inventories tightening, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we believe that these increases in sales activity will start to push prices up more significantly by the end of the year.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE COMPLETE REPORT
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2
This week, Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is releasing its Quarterly Market Report for all the counties it services: Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, and Dutchess Counties in New York; and Bergen, Passaic, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. Below is an excerpt from the report, but you can get the full Report here.
The Rockland County housing market continued to strengthen in the second quarter, with sales up significantly and inventories tightening. Even with these sustained increases in buyer demand, though, we’re still not yet seeing any meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Rockland sales rose 9.7% compared to last year, with the 386 closings representing the second-highest second-quarter total since 2007. Similarly, the rolling year sales total approached 1,600 for the first time since 2007, at the height of the last seller’s market. All this activity had its expected impact on inventories, with the average months of inventory over the past year falling below 10 months for the first time in almost ten years.
Prices. Even with all this buyer demand, pricing was a little mixed, with average price falling 2.4%, the median flat, and the price-per-square-foot up just 1.6%. For the year, pricing is sluggish, a bit of a disappointment for Rockland homeowners given the more encouraging results of the first quarter.
Negotiability. The listing retention and days-on-market indicators showed that sellers were gaining a little bit of negotiating leverage, with homes selling a little more quickly for for slightly closer to the asking price. We expect this to continue if buyer demand stays strong and inventories tighten.
Condominiums. The condo market surged in the second quarter, with sales up 23.5% and inventory falling 16.4%. Even with these spikes in demand, though, we’re still seeing mixed results in pricing, with average up but the median down slightly.
Going forward, we believe that Rockland demand will continue to surge through the seasonally strong third quarter, and that these increases in demand, coupled with the tightening of inventory, is bound to drive pricing up by the end of the year.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE COMPLETE REPORT
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2
This week, Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is releasing its Quarterly Market Report for all the counties it services: Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, and Dutchess Counties in New York; and Bergen, Passaic, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. Below is an excerpt from the report, but you can get the full Report here.
Activity in the Orange County housing market continued to surge in the second quarter, with sales up and inventories tightening. But pricing is still a challenge, with prices continuing to deteriorate even with buyer demand increasing.
Sales. Orange County single-family sales spiked in the second quarter, with closings up over 30% from last year and the 644 sales in the quarter representing the highest second-quarter total since 2007. Similarly, the rolling year total of 2,503 sales was the highest 12-month total since early 2007. All this activity had its expected impact on inventories, with the months of inventory falling almost three months from last year.
Prices. Even with these surges in buyer demand, though, we’re still seeing downward pressure on pricing. Prices fell across the board in the second quarter, down 8.2% on average, 9.6% at the median, and 4.8% in the price-per-square foot. The rolling year results were not as stark, but average prices were still down over 5% for the full year.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators similarly demonstrate a market that continues to transition. Sellers were forced to discount their homes a little more aggressively to get them sold, with the listing retention falling slightly. On the positive side, though, homes were selling a bit more quickly, albeit at a relatively slow rate overall.
Condominiums. The condo market surged dramatically in the quarter, with sales up a whopping 71.2% from last year’s second quarter. Again, though, all this activity isn’t driving up prices, with pricing down across the board.
The Orange County market is perplexing, mixing torrid sales growth with a tepid pricing environment. One explanation might be that the market is simply stronger in the lower-end, which is changing the mix of the properties sold and ultimately driving pricing down. We remain confident, though, that if buyer demand continues to grow, it is bound to eventually start driving positive price appreciation.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE COMPLETE REPORT
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
