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Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Rockland County, New York
The Rockland County housing market tapered off a bit in the fourth quarter of 2016, but still finished the year with significant increases in both sales and prices.
Inventory. The story in Rockland County is the declining inventory, with the number of homes for sale falling again, now reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years. We calculate the “months of inventory” by measuring how long it would take to sell out the existing available homes at the current rate of sales. Anything shorter than six months is considered a “tight” market, and Rockland has now crossed below that line for the first time in years, with the months of inventory at 4.9 months for single-family homes and 5.6 months for condos.
Sales. We can see the impact of declining inventories in the sales activity, with transactions down almost 4% for single-family homes. This broke a two-year streak of eight straight quarters of year-on-year sales increases, and marked only the second time in five years that sales went down from the prior year quarter. Why? We do not believe it’s a lack of demand, but rather that many buyers simply cannot find the right home at these levels of inventory. Still, though, the overall market is healthy: single-family home sales have now gone up for five straight calendar years, are at their highest level since 2004, and are up 77% from their 2011 bottom.
Prices. The flip side of declining inventory is rising prices, and Rockland pricing is showing sustained signs of meaningful price appreciation. Although single-family pricing was relatively mixed for the quarter, home prices have now gone up for four straight calendar years, and are now up 9% from the bottom in 2012. That’s not dramatic, but it’s something. We expect that with inventory at these levels, we will continue to see price appreciation in 2017.
Negotiability. Single-family homes sold more quickly and for closer to the asking price in the fourth quarter, which is generally a sign that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers.
Condos. The condo market was mixed for the quarter, with sales up 20% but prices falling 10% on average even while rising over 5% at the median. The yearlong results were more consistent, with sales up 20% and prices down about 3% on average and at the median.
Going forward, we believe that buyer demand in Rockland will stay strong, with prices still at attractive levels, interest rates still near historic lows, and the economy generally strengthening. And with declining inventories, we believe that this demand will drive more meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Westchester County, New York
The Westchester housing market in the fourth quarter of 2016 started to show the impact of tightening inventory, with sales flattening out and prices rising as buyers chased fewer available homes for sale.
Inventory. The story in Westchester as 2016 ended was about the declining inventory. We calculate the “months of inventory” by measuring how long it would take to sell out the existing available homes at the current rate of sales. Anything below six months is considered a “tight” market, and Westchester has now crossed over that line in all property types: down to 3.8 months for single-family homes, 4.5 months for coops, and a sizzling 2.6 months for condos.
Sales. Westchester sales remain strong, with 2016 single-family transactions up over 8% for the year. Indeed, yearly sales hit their highest total since 2004, and are up 85% from their 2009 bottom. But you can see that the rate of growth is slowing if you look at the quarterly numbers, where single-family home sales were up just a tick and condo and coop sales were down sharply. Why? Because the market needs fuel for the fire, and the limited inventory is providing buyers with fewer options to purchase.
Prices. The flip side of limited inventory, of course, is rising prices, as buyers chase fewer options and get into multiple-offer situations and bidding wars that drive prices up. And we are finally starting to see the impact of limited inventory on Westchester pricing, with quarterly prices up over 3% for single-family homes, 10% for coops, and 3% for condos. For the year, prices were mostly down or flat, and they remain close to their 2004-05 levels, but we believe they are poised to rise in 2017.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators also showed the impact of declining inventory, with listing retention up and days-on-market down. Simply put, homes are selling more quickly, and for closer to the asking price. Indeed, for single-family homes, the yearly listing retention rate of 97.5% homes was the highest since 2005, and the yearly days-on-market of 161 was the lowest since 2006.
Going forward, we believe that the fundamentals in the Westchester market are tremendous. With inventory tightening, pricing at 2004-05 levels, interest rates still near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that buyer demand will stay strong and eventually drive meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley
The story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.
Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.
The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.
Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.
Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley
The story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.
Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.
The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.
Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.
Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Dutchess County, New York
The Dutchess County housing market continued to strengthen in the third quarter of 2016, with a moderate increase in sales coupled with an eye‑opening spike in pricing.
Sales. Dutchess single‑family home sales were up again in the third quarter, rising 8% from last year. This marked the eighth quarter in a row with year‑on‑year sales increases, closing a rolling year where sales were up over 17%. With over 2,400 sales over the past 12 months, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.
Prices. This sustained increase in sales activity is finally having its expected impact on pricing. Single‑family home prices spiked in the third quarter, rising an eye‑popping 9% on average. That’s not a sustainable increase, and is likely due to a few outliers in the data, especially when you see that the median and price‑per‑square foot metrics were up a more modest 2%. But even so, the rolling year average sales price increase of 4%, and the median price increase of 3%, are both positive indicators of where this market is likely going.
Negotiability. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down over 26% to 14.1 months of active single‑family listings. Although we are nowhere near the six‑month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support further price appreciation. The other negotiability indicators – days‑on‑market and listing retention – were mixed.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising almost 18% and prices also spiking. For the year, condo sales are up 21%, and pricing is up across the board, although the 9% increase in the average price is probably not sustainable.
Going forward, we continue to believe that Dutchess is on the precipice of meaningful price appreciation. With a stable economy, low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess will finish the year strong and see even better days in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Putnam County, New York
The Putnam County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with sales way up and prices stabilizing after a summer spike.
Sales. Putnam sales were up again in the third quarter, with single‑family home closings up over 12% from last year and now up almost 22% for the year. The market is just sizzling, with transactions up in nine straight quarters and 17 out of the last 18. Similarly, condo sales were up almost 12%, and have risen almost 20% for the year. Putnam demand is strong right now.
Prices. Even with all this demand, though, we’re not seeing a dramatic impact on pricing. Single‑family home prices were basically flat for the quarter, down a tick on average and up almost 2% at the median. Condo pricing was downright scary, falling almost 20% on both the average and the median, but we caution that the Putnam condo market is very thin and can be skewed by outliers. Overall, though, it’s surprising that sustained buyer demand over almost five years has had so little impact on pricing.
Inventory. The good news for Putnam homeowners was that inventory was down again, falling almost 43% to 7.3 months of active single‑family listings and 4.7 months for condos. Anything below six months usually signifies a tight seller’s market, which would tend to drive the kind of appreciation we’ve been waiting for.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers continue to gain leverage with buyers, with the listing retention rate rising and days‑on‑market falling for both single‑family and condo sellers. We would expect homes to continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price if the market heats up.
Going forward, we do believe that the fundamentals of the market are strong, with demand high, prices at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a gradually improving economy. Accordingly, we expect the Putnam market to close the year strong, and to eventually drive some meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Orange County, New York
The Orange County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with sales up dramatically and, more importantly, the first signs of meaningful price appreciation since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Sales. Orange single‑family sales were up yet again, rising over 18% from last year and now up over 25% for the rolling year. This continues a trend we’ve been watching for over four years, with Orange sales now up eight quarters in a row and 17 out of the last 18. And the 3,400 single‑family sales for the rolling year marked the highest yearly total we’ve seen since the third quarter of 2006 ‑‑ exactly ten years ago, at the top of the last seller’s market.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are finally having a meaningful impact on pricing, with prices up across the board in the third quarter: up almost 4% on average, 3% at the median, and 4% in the price‑per‑square foot. This is all great news for Orange homeowners, who have been impatiently waiting for pricing to rebound since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Negotiability. The number of available homes for sale continues to fall, with inventory dropping almost 38% and now down to about eight months for single‑family homes and six months for condos. According to industry standards, anything below six months of inventory indicates a “tight” market that usually drives price appreciation. The other negotiability factors were mixed, with homes selling for closer to the asking price but days‑on‑market relatively flat.
Condominiums. The Orange condo market was not as active, with sales down almost 8% for the quarter. But prices showed similar signs of rebounding, with the average up almost 2%, the median up 3%, and the price‑per‑square foot spiking 7%. If the single‑family market continues to heat up, we expect that the condo market will follow.
Going forward, we believe that the Orange County housing market is looking at its best year since the height of the last seller’s market. The fundamentals are strong: demand is high, prices are still attractive, interest rates are at historic lows, and the economy is generally improving. We expect a strong finish for the year, and meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Rockland County, New York
The Rockland County market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with a dramatic increase in sales finally driving a meaningful yearly increase in prices.
Sales. Rockland single‑family sales were up yet again, rising almost 13% from last year’s third quarter and up 20% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over four years, with transactions up for eight straight quarters and 16 out of the last 17. Indeed, we eclipsed 2,000 single‑family sales in the rolling year for the first time in over 10 years, at the height of the last seller’s market. Sales were similarly torrid in the condo market, which was up almost 38% for the quarter and 15% for the year.
Prices. Rockland pricing is finally showing meaningful signs of price appreciation. As we noted in our last Report, the 10% spring spike in prices was not sustainable, and we saw pricing come back to earth a little bit in the third quarter: down over 2% on average, and up a tick at the median. But the rolling year single‑family prices are demonstrating the kind of appreciation that is sustainable over time, up about 3% on both the average and the median. Rockland homeowners should be happy with this trend.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to fall, with single‑family homes and condos both approaching the six‑month level that usually denotes a “tight” market. If inventory continues to fall, and buyer demand stays at its current levels, then we are likely to see continued price appreciation in the future as buyers chase fewer available homes.
Negotiability. Single‑family homes sold more quickly and for closer to the asking price, which is generally a sign that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers. The condo results were more mixed, with the listing retention rate falling slightly even while the days‑on‑market hit the six‑month mark.
Going forward, we believe that buyer demand in Rockland will stay strong through the end of the year, with prices still at attractive levels, interest rates low, and the economy generally strengthening. Indeed, we expect that Rockland will have its best year since the height of the last seller’s market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Westchester County
The Westchester housing market softened in the third quarter of 2016, with sales flat and prices continuing to weaken even in the face of falling inventory.
SALES. Sales activity was up, but not at the pace that we’ve seen over the past few years. Single‑family home sales rose, but only by about 2%. Similarly, coop sales were actually down by almost 3%, and condo sales fell just a tick. Transactions are still up for the rolling year, rising 11% in single‑family homes, 6% in coops, and almost 12% in condos. But we might be seeing a cooling of the sizzling buyer demand that’s been driving sales up in this market for the past five years.
PRICES. We continued to see some weakness in Westchester pricing, with single‑family home prices down 3% on average, 1% at the median, and almost 2% in the price‑per‑square foot. Pricing in the condo and coop markets was a little more mixed, but the overall takeaway is that sustained levels of buyer demand over the past five years have done little to drive price appreciation.
INVENTORY. Inventory levels continue to drop, now under six months of inventory for all property types. That might explain the relative slack in market activity, if buyers are still adjusting to the limited inventory available. But if inventory continues to fall, and demand maintains its current levels, we might see the price appreciation we’ve been waiting for.
NEGOTIABILITY. The negotiability indicators were relatively hopeful. Sellers seem to be gaining a little bit of negotiating leverage, with single‑family home sellers now retaining over 98% of their last list price. And homes are now selling in under six months, which is relatively quick by historical standards.
Going forward, we continue to believe that the fundamentals in the Westchester market are strong. With inventory tightening, pricing at 2004‑05 levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that buyer demand will stay strong and eventually drive meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley in the third quarter of 2016 defied the standard economic laws of supply and demand. Sales were up and inventory was down, but prices were flat across the board. Why? Maybe buyers are just leery of making a move during a tumultuous presidential election year.
Sales activity continues to increase throughout the region. Sales were up compared to the third quarter of last year in every county in the Report, ranging from a modest 2% increase in Westchester to a robust 18% rise in Orange. We’ve now seen sustained sales increases for almost five years, with regional year‑on‑year sales going up in 17 out of the last 19 quarters. And we’re reaching transactional totals we haven’t seen since the height of the last seller’s market, with the region hitting 15,000 single‑family home sales for the first time since 2016. We did see some signs, though, that the pace of growth might be slowing: regional sales were up only 8% for the quarter, relatively disappointing in a rolling year where sales rose almost 17%.
Inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. The supply of homes for sale is falling throughout the region, down in almost every county in the Report: dropping 20% in Westchester, 31% in Putnam, 17% in Rockland, and 21% in Orange. And if you look at the months of inventory available given the current rate of sales, we are already approaching the six‑month inventory level that usually signals a tight seller’s market. For single‑family homes, Westchester is already below six months at 5.8, and the other counties are getting close: Putnam at 7.3, Rockland at 6.4, and Orange at 8.1. And for condos, it’s the same story: Westchester at 3.7, Putnam at 4.7, Rockland at 7.1, and Orange right at 6.0.
So with demand up and supply down, why aren’t prices rising? Prices were down modestly throughout the region, and in most of the counties in this Report. We can think of three reasons.
- Disproportionate strength in the lower‑end markets. The fact that sales were up 18% in lower‑priced Orange and only 2% in higher‑priced Westchester might be a sign that demand is stronger at the entry‑level. That would tend to drive overall pricing down a bit.
- Buyers are still spooked by the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008‑09. Maybe buyers aren’t yet willing to give in to seller demands for higher prices – that would blunt the impact of declines in inventory, and might also explain why sales increases have tapered a bit.
- The impact of a particularly tumultuous presidential election year. It’s tough to get data on this, because we have so few presidential election years to use as comparison points. But real estate agents have traditionally complained about the difficulty of selling homes during a presidential election – and we expect that this election is especially fraught for home buyers (on both sides).
Going forward, we are hopeful that the market will close the year well. The fundamentals of our regional market are strong: demand is high, inventory is falling, interest rates are near historic lows, and the overall economy is doing fine. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to outpace 2015 levels, and believe it’s only a matter of time before these falling inventory levels start driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
