Rand Country Blog • October 14, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Bergen County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3

by James Troia

The Bergen County housing market continued to gain momentum in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply and modest price growth. If buyer demand continues to grow, it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing more meaningful price appreciation.

Sales. Bergen single-family home sales surged again in the third quarter, rising 14.1% for the quarter and now up 9.0% for the rolling year. This marked the fourth straight quarter that year-over-year sales were up, and the second time we saw a double-digit increase. Indeed, we are starting to see transactions at “seller market” levels, with the 5,999 rolling year sales higher than any full calendar year since 2006.

Prices. With these sustained increases in buyer demand, we’re also seeing some upward pressure on pricing. Prices were up for the quarter, rising 2.5% both on average and at the median. We’re also starting to see meaningful price appreciation over the longer-term, with the rolling year average sales price up 2.3%. Overall, the market has recovered from the bottom, with the $572,775 rolling year average price higher than the calendar year price for any year since the market correction in 2008.

Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were a little mixed. Homes were getting into contract more quickly, with the days-on-market falling 7.7% for the quarter. But the listing retention rate fell a bit to 96.2%, indicating that sellers are not able to command offers closer to their asking price.

Condos & Coops. The Bergen condo market was up, but not as sharply as the single-family market. Quarterly sales were up 4.6%, but pricing was mixed. For the year, sales are basically flat (up 1.2%), and pricing is up just a tick. We expect that if the single-family market takes off, the condo market will follow.

Going forward, we remain bullish that the Bergen County housing market is moving in the right direction. Buyer demand is strong, which is driving up sales and starting to have a meaningful impact on pricing. With pricing close to 2004 levels, rates near historic lows, and the economy relatively stable, we expect demand to stay strong through the end of the year and into 2016.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • October 9, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q3

by James Troia

The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged forward in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up dramatically throughout the region. More importantly, several counties showed signs of “green shoots” of meaningful price appreciation, reflecting the impact of the sustained increases in buyer demand that we’ve seen over the past few years.

Home sales continued to spike, rising 19% throughout the region. This continued a trend we’ve been tracking for several years, with year-over-year regional sales now up for four out of the last five quarters and 12 out of the last 14. And the trend was widespread, with sales up in every county in the Rand Report: rising 6% in Westchester, 24% in Putnam, 27% in Rockland, 32% in Orange, and 47% in Dutchess. As you can see, sales growth was strongest in the lower-priced markets, which was also true within each county, where sales condo markets generally outpaced single-family homes.

Indeed, we’re now seeing sales at “seller market” levels. The 4,500 single-family regional sales were the highest quarterly total since 2005, and the 13,000 rolling year transactions were the highest since 2007. To put this in perspective, those 13,000 rolling year transactions are about 20% below the 16,000-sale rate at the very height of the seller’s market in 2004-05, but about 60% higher than the 8,000-sale rate we experienced at the very bottom of the market in 2008-09. When it comes to transactional levels, we’re a lot closer to 2005 than 2009.

These sustained increases in buyer demand might be starting to impact pricing. Pricing was relatively mixed, with average prices up in Putnam, Rockland, and Orange, but down in Westchester and Dutchess. This is obviously nothing to get too excited about, but it’s still noteworthy that most of the counties in the Report are starting to see “green shoots” or price appreciation. (Note that the regional price fell about 6%, but that’s only because the relative strength in the lower-priced counties changed the mix of properties sold.)

We believe it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing meaningful price appreciation. As we have said before, it takes time for changes in market activity to impact market psychology. Back in the last seller’s market, sales fell for almost three years before we started to see prices start to go down. And while we’ve now seen over three years of increasing sales activity, we expect that buyers are still skeptical about pricing based on their vivid memories of the market correction of 2008-09. But basic economics tells us that when inventory is stable, and demand is going up, pricing is bound to increase eventually.

Going forward, we expect the market to finish the year strong, with sustained buyer demand eventually driving meaningful price appreciation by the spring market of 2016. With pricing in most of the counties at non-inflation-adjusted 2003-04 levels, rates near historic lows, and a stabilized economy, we believe it’s just a matter of time before we enter a fairly robust seller’s market characterized by increasing demand, narrowing inventory, and rising prices.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • July 20, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q2

by James Troia

This week, Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is releasing its Quarterly Market Report for all the counties it services: Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, and Dutchess Counties in New York; and Bergen, Passaic, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. Below is an excerpt from the report, but you can get the full Report here.

The real estate market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged in the second quarter of 2015, with sales spiking throughout the region. But even with transactions reaching highs that we have not seen in almost ten years, pricing remains stubbornly flat or even down in most of our local markets.

Home sales were torrid, rising almost 15% throughout the region. This continued a trend we’ve seen for most of the last year, marking the third straight quarter of year-on-year sales increases. And the results were impressive not just in comparison to a relatively tepid 2014, with the 3,070 second quarter sales and the 12,258 rolling year sales representing the highest totals since 2007, at the tail end of the last seller’s market. More importantly, the surge was widespread, with sales up sharply in every county in the region: rising 15% in Westchester, 18% in Putnam, 10% in Rockland, 31% in Orange, and 21% in Dutchess. Clearly, buyer demand has come back to the region at levels we have not seen in almost ten years.

This surge in buyer demand did not, though, have its expected impact on pricing, with regional prices down 5.5% from last year. Now, that does not necessarily mean that the average home in the region declined by over 5% in value. Rather, some of the decline is simply a change in the mix of properties sold – after all, if you look at the sales increases listed above, you can see that we saw the strongest results in the lowest-priced counties like Orange and Dutchess. Indeed, we saw the same kind of results within each county, with most of the areas showing more strength in the lower-end of the market. So part of the reason for the decline in pricing is simply that the market was more heavily weighted down by lower-priced homes.

But the main reason for the continued sluggishness of pricing is simply that we are still working our way out of the 2008-2011 market correction. As we have noted before in this Report, it takes time for changes in buyer demand to have an impact on pricing. For example, if you look at the accompanying graph displaying regional sales and prices going back almost 15 years, you can see that sales topped out and started falling sometime in 2004-05, but prices only started to come down in 2008. In other words, it took almost four years for a decline in buyer demand to have an impact on pricing. Similarly, we have argued that it will take several years of increasing demand to start driving prices back up – and you can see that sales only started to climb back up in 2012 or so. So we’re not necessarily surprised that prices are still bouncing around at the current levels.

Going forward, we believe it’s only a matter of time before these sustained increases in buyer demand have an impact on pricing. We’re now going into our fourth year of mostly sustained increases in sales, and basic market economics tells us that increasing demand coupled with stable supply is eventually going to drive prices up. And given that we’re seeing homes at relatively affordable levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we think that meaningful changes in price appreciation in the region are imminent.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE REPORT

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • July 20, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Bergen County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2

by James Troia

The Bergen County housing market continued to strengthen in the second quarter of 2015, with sales and prices up across the board compared to last year. Although the longer-term trends are more mixed, the market is clearly moving in a positive direction.

Sales. Bergen single-family home sales surged in the second quarter, with closings up 10.2% from last year. This marked the third straight quarter that year-on-year sales were up, although the first time that the increase was in the double-digits. We expect that sales will continue to rise in the seasonally strong third quarter.

Prices. With these sustained increases in buyer demand, we’re also seeing some meaningful price appreciation. Prices were up for the quarter, rising 2.8% on average and 4.4% at the median. The longer-term trend, though, was more mixed, with the average down 1.4% and the median basically flat.

Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were also mixed, indicating that sellers are still struggling to gain leverage with home buyers. Essentially, homes were selling a little more quickly, with the days-on-market falling 4.1%, but they were also being discounted a bit more, with the listing retention rate falling from 96.0% to 94.7%.

Condos & Coops. The Bergen condo market was not as strong in the second quarter, with sales up 4.3% but prices down across the board. The longer-term trends go in a different direction, with sales down 4.0% for the rolling year but prices more mixed.

The Bergen County market is going in the right direction, with sustained increases in buyer demand that are driving sales growth and now some emerging signs of price appreciation. Going forward, we expect that sales and prices will continue to rise in a seasonally strong third quarter, especially with an improving economy and near-historically-low interest rates.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE COMPLETE REPORT

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • July 20, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Passaic County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2

by James Troia

The Passaic County housing market continued to strengthen in the second quarter of 2015, with increases in both sales and prices that reflect a sustained increase in buyer demand. Going forward, we expect that this will continue through a seasonably strong third quarter.

Sales. Passaic County sales were up in the second quarter, rising 5.1% from last year. That marked the third straight quarter with year-on-year sales increases, demonstrating sustained growth in buyer demand. You can see that in the longer-term trend, with sales up 5.4% for the rolling year. Clearly, buyer demand in Passaic County is strong and getting stronger.

Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are having their expected impact on pricing, with prices up across the board from last year: 3.3% on average, and 3.1% at the median. For the year, we saw a mild but meaningful 1.1% increase in the average sales price, indicating that Passaic pricing is slowly but surely moving in a positive direction.

Negotiability. The negotiability indicators, though, were decidedly mixed, demonstrating that sellers are still struggling to gain negotiating leverage with buyers. The days-on-market indicator was essentially flat for both the quarter and the rolling year, and the listing retention rate was actually down a bit. In other words, homes were taking just about as long to sell, and were being discounted a little more heavily.

Going forward, we expect that Passaic County buyer demand will stay strong through the seasonally robust third quarter, and that we will continue to see price appreciation through the end of the year. With home prices at affordable levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect the Passaic market to stay strong.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR COPY OF THE COMPLETE REPORT

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • July 20, 2015

So What’s Going on in the Morris County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q2

by James Troia

The Morris County housing market spiked in the second quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply and prices continuing to appreciate. If buyer demand stays strong, then we are likely to see continued meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year.

Sales. Morris County sales surged 17% in the second quarter, with the 1,498 sales marked the highest second-quarter total since 2007, at the tail end of the last seller’s market. This continues a trend that we’ve been watching for almost a year, with year-on-year sales now up for three quarters in a row – with the rolling year sales now up 6.2% from the prior rolling year.

Prices. As we would expect, these sustained increases in buyer demand are having an impact on pricing, with the average sales price up 4.1% and the median sales price up almost 1%. For the rolling year, we’re also seeing positive results, with the average price up 2.3% — a meaningful and sustainable level of appreciation.

Negotiability. Morris County home sellers are also gaining some leverage in negotiability, as indicated by the time that homes are staying on the market and the amount that they’re discounted by sellers. The days-on-market were down 4.4% for the quarter and 5.1% for the year, indicating that homes are starting to move more quickly. And the listing retention rate was up for both the quarter and the year, indicating that sellers are negotiating deals closer to their asking price.

Going forward, we expect that the Morris County market will continue to grow through a seasonally strong third quarter. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that buyer demand will stay strong and continue to drive price appreciation through the end of the year.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Rand Country Blog • July 5, 2015

Are We In a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

by Howard Hanna | Rand Realty

The real estate industry is constantly going through changes, and that includes the climate of the market. If there is high inventory and low prices, you can bet that you are in a buyer’s market, and if there’s low inventory and high prices, you can be sure that you’re in a seller’s market. In the U.S., however, the type of market varies by location. Because of the size of the U.S., some areas might be displaying traits of a buyer’s market, and other places might be showing signs of a seller’s market. It all depends on where you live.

According to RealtyTrac, homes are selling for 108 percent of asking price on average in the Bay Area of California, as well as in Washington, D.C.; Cass County, North Dakota; and Winston-Salem, North Carolina. In these locations, sellers are receiving more than they originally asked for, which shows that there is a high demand for housing.

Then, there are areas, such as Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis, where buyers have the most influence and sellers are receiving less than the asking price, and this is happening even though the number of homes on the market are limited.

According to RealtyTrac, less than a third of housing markets in the U.S. have homes that sell for above the asking price, 60 percent have homes selling for below the asking price, and only 14 percent of homes sell at their market value.

If you want further proof that the U.S. real estate industry can’t be pinned down to one kind of market over the other, there are also areas that have markets where the situation is on even ground between buyers and sellers. These places include the D.C. suburbs of Montgomery County, Maryland; Raleigh, North Carolina; the Phoenix metropolitan area; and Riverside County, California.

To give you an example of the areas around near where I live (the lower Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey), there is definitely a situation where there are certain counties that have markets that are more suitable for buyers, some that are better for sellers, and others that are great for both. Orange County is certainly a buyer’s market with its 30-percent sales increase of single-family homes from last year and a median sales price of $220,000. Dutchess County also has a relatively low median sales price, coming in at $249,600.00, but faired even better than Orange County in terms of sales for single-family homes, topping that region with a 21.4 percent increase. Putnam County experienced changes that have made it a decent market for both buyers and sellers, with sales having shown a considerable increase of 18.2 percent and prices displaying more consistency and a promise of growth.

The northern New Jersey counties near the lower Hudson Valley (Bergen, Morris, and Passaic), have been displaying wonderful activity within their markets. All three counties have enjoyed increases in sales and prices, and they also have the lowest amount of average days on market for their homes (ranging from 76-155 days), whereas Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties in New York have homes that spend a higher average of days on the market (ranging from 170-218 days).

When you’re looking to buy a home, it’s always important to study the current housing market and see where you can get the best deal for a home. Each area has its own market that favors either the buyer, the seller, or both, so you should have an idea about what a certain market is going to offer you before you actually visit that area. As long as you stay on top of the market and use it as a valuable real estate tool, you will surely know where it is best to search for a home.

If you’re interested in Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty’s full market report for the second quarter of 2015, you can find it here on our blog. The QMR includes a market overview and in-depth analyses pertaining to each county that Rand Realty covers.

To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

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