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So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Activity in Putnam surged in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply, hitting levels we have not seen in over ten years. And although prices took a dip in the quarter, they were relatively flat for the year.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the fourth quarter, rising almost 12% from last year and up almost 21% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for four years, with closings up for six straight quarters and 14 out of the last 15. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 918 calendar sales being the most since 2005.
Prices. Pricing was disappointing, with the quarterly price down across the board after a robust showing in the third quarter. Indeed, for the year, prices were down just slightly, after rising for the past two calendar years.
Negotiability. The good news for prices came in the inventory numbers, which were down sharply. The months-of-inventory fell almost 21% from last year, down to below 9.0 months for the first time in over 10 years. With inventory tightening, we would expect negotiability to decline, which would tend to drive prices up as buyers chase fewer opportunities and homes sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly up, rising over 22% for the quarter and over 30% for the year. In this case, though, the surge in activity has already been felt in the pricing, with the average up over 11% for the quarter and over 9% for the year.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand coupled with a declining inventory are likely to drive some meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Orange County surged again in the fourth quarter of 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over ten years, but this rising demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing.
Sales. Orange County sales spiked again, rising 20% from the fourth quarter of last year and up 29% for all of 2015. We have now seen sustained sales growth for more than three years, with transactions up five quarters in a row and 14 out of the last 15. Indeed, we are now seeing sales at historically high levels, with the 2,843 yearly sales the most in any calendar year since 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Unfortunately, we have not yet seen these sustained increases in buyer demand have an impact on pricing, with the average and median price both finishing the year down from 2014. Prices are now down to 2002-03 levels, having retained the price appreciation enjoyed from 1998-2003, but giving back everything in the “bubble years” from 2004-07.
Negotiability. We measure “negotiability” by looking at the inventory on the market, how quickly homes are selling, and how much sellers are discounting off their last listed price. By those measures, the only clear indication of increasing seller leverage is in the listing inventory, which fell to 10.0 months-of-inventory, the lowest level we have seen in about 10 years. If inventory continues to tighten, we would expect that buyers chasing reduced opportunities will drive prices up.
Condominiums. The condo market also surged, rising 20% for the quarter and up 28% for the year. Even with demand strong, though, we’re seeing even more pressure on prices in the condo market, with prices down again for the quarter and the year. With a narrow gap (about $80,000) between single-family and condo prices, and with rates at their current levels, many entry-level buyers can afford to stretch to get into a single-family home. That’s having a depressing effect on condo prices, and it won’t get better until single-family home prices start to rise.
Going forward, we believe that demand will continue to drive sales up through a robust spring market, but expect that we will need to see continued tightening in the inventory to drive any meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Rockland sales surged again in a torrid end to 2015, with sales reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years and prices showing meaningful signs of appreciation.
Sales. Rockland sales were up sharply, rising 26% from the fourth quarter of 2015 and up over 20% for the calendar year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over three years, with transactions up for the last five quarters and 13 out of the last 14. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 1,830 yearly sales the largest calendar year total since 2004.
Prices. The Rockland average sales price rose in 2015 for the third straight year, up over 3% after more modest increases in 2013 and 2014. Although prices are still a long way from recouping the 25% plunge from 2008-09, and are still at 2004 levels (without adjusting for inflation), pricing is definitely moving in a positive direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were a little mixed, but the inventory numbers were startling. As of the close of 2015, Rockland had about 6.7 months of single-family inventory, the lowest level we have seen in over 10 years and tantalizingly close to the six-month level that signals a “tight” market. Similarly, the listing retention rate hit 96% for the first time since the market correction in 2008, indicating that sellers are gaining leverage when negotiating to get their asking price with buyers.
Condos. The condo market was not quite as robust, with sales up slightly for the quarter, but flat for the year. Prices were up on average, though, and inventory fell to about 7.4 months, so we might be seeing the beginning of some meaningful price appreciation in this entry-level market.
Going forward, we expect that Rockland is going to show signs of a fully realized seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows continuing to drive meaningful price appreciation in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Westchester activity surged in the fourth quarter, with sales up sharply for both single-family homes and condominiums, even while prices remained stubbornly soft.
Sales. Residential rose sharply, up over 13% from last year and finishing the calendar year up almost 8%. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for four full years, with year-on-year transactions going up in 15 out of the last 17 quarters. For the 2015 year, Westchester closed over 5,700
single-family homes, the highest calendar year total since 2005, at the height of the seller’s market.
Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down across the board, finishing a year in which the average price dropped over 3%. While that was disappointing to Westchester homeowners, we note that prices got a little ahead of themselves in 2014, spiking 7% in one year, and the average price is still about 4% higher than it was in 2013.
Negotiability. Although the days-on-market and listing retention rates were basically flat for the quarter and the year, we did see a sharp decline in inventory levels, with the “months-of-inventory” level falling to 5.1 in the quarter and 7.1 for the rolling year – the lowest levels we have seen in over ten years. (In comparison, we had over 17 months of inventory in the middle of 2009, at the bottom of the market).
Condos & Coops. Activity in the condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply but prices down. Inventory levels have really dropped for this entry-level market, though, with condos falling all the way to 3.9 months of inventory.
Going forward, we believe that the Westchester market is poised to transition to a full-blown seller’s market in 2016, with inventory at 10-year lows driving meaningful price appreciation through what will be a robust spring market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for Westchester and the Hudson Valley Region for 2015Q4
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market finished 2015 strong, with another surge in activity that drove sales up almost 17% for the year. And although this sustained increase in buyer demand has not yet had its expected impact on pricing, declining levels of inventory are now signaling that meaningful price appreciation is imminent.
In other words – welcome to the seller’s market! As we have noted before in this Report, our housing market tends to run in approximately 15-year cycles from the beginning of a seller’s market to the end of a buyer’s market. We saw this cycle play out from 1981-1997, with prices and activity rising for about seven years through most of the 1980s (the “seller’s market”) and then falling for about eight years from 1989-1997 (the “buyer’s market”). And we saw it again in another 15-year period from the seller’s market that started in the late 1990s, ran through the crash of 2008-09, and then transitioned to the buyer’s market that ran through the past few years.
Well, as we come into 2016, we are now on the cusp of a new cycle, a seller’s market that has been slow to develop over the past few years, but is now showing real signs of taking off. Here are some of the reasons why:
First, sales activity has now been generally up for over four years. Year-on-year sales have now gone up for 14 out of the past 16 quarters, culminating in almost 13,500 single-family sales this year – the highest total we have seen since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005. By comparison, yearly regional closings routinely fell below the 10,000 sale mark after the market correction in 2008.
Second, inventory levels have dropped significantly, with some markets going below the crucial six-months-of-inventory mark. We measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, which we calculate by taking the number of homes on the market and dividing them by the average number of homes that are selling every month. So, if we have 1,000 homes on the market, and we are selling about 100 homes on average every month, we say that we have about 10 “months of inventory.” According to industry standards, about six months of inventory signals a “balanced” market: anything less, and buyers chasing scarcity are likely to create bidding wars that will drive prices up. And for the first time in about 10 years, we’ve seen one of our markets go under six months of inventory, with Westchester single-family homes at about 5.1 and condos at about 3.9. The other markets are above six months, but they are definitely trending downward and are hitting levels we have not seen since the last seller’s market.
Third, as a result of declining inventory and rising demand, we are starting to see some “green shoots” in pricing at the county level. It doesn’t look like much, particularly since the overall regional price fell this year due to some regression in Westchester, but we are seeing a slight upward trend in most of the counties over the past several years. It takes time for changes in activity to impact pricing, but basic economics tells us that four years of rising sales coupled with a declining inventory should drive prices up.
Going forward, we expect that 2016 will mark the clear beginning of a fully realized seller’s market. The economy is in reasonably good shape, interest rates are still near historic lows, and homes are now priced pretty attractively given that they’re still at 2003-04 levels without adjustments for inflation. So we see no reason why buyer demand would fall off from its current levels. And unless we see a flood of new inventory hitting the market, those buyers are going to be chasing a declining number of homes for sale, which is likely to drive prices up in a robust spring market and through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Dutchess County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Dutchess County housing market continued to enjoy sustained levels of increasing sales activity, but we’re still seeing a difficult pricing environment. These levels of buyer demand are bound to push up prices eventually, but we understand if Dutchess homeowners and sellers are getting impatient.
Sales. Dutchess County single-family home sales surged in the second quarter, with transactions up 47.2% from last year. Indeed, the 667 quarterly sales represented the highest total since the third quarter of 2006, at the height of the last seller’s market. Similarly, the 2,080 rolling year sales is the highest total we have seen since 2007. For comparison, note that Dutchess closed about 1,500 sales in all of 2008. .
Prices. Even with this torrid activity, pricing was still soft, with the average down 5.6%, the median down 0.8%%, and the price-per-square foot falling almost 20%. Over the longer term, we’re seeing some pricing challenges, with the average price down about 3% over the past 12 months. We keep expecting Dutchess prices to rebound, especially at these torrid levels of sales activity, but full recovery from the effects of the market correction remains elusive.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators also show that Dutchess sellers are still struggling to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up above 95%. And the days-on-market fell just a bit, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly.
Condominiums. The condo market was similarly robust, with sales up 44.2%. Unfortunately, we saw the same pricing dynamic, with prices down significantly across the board.
Going forward, we believe that Dutchess is poised for price appreciation, but we remain puzzled as to why it hasn’t happened yet. Basic economics tells us that increased demand coupled with stable inventory drives up prices, so we remain hopeful that we will see meaningful price appreciation by 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Orange County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Orange County housing market continued to surge in the third quarter, with sales up dramatically in both single-family and condo markets. Pricing was more mixed, but it’s only a matter of time before these sustained levels of buyer demand drive meaningful price appreciation.
Sales. Orange County sales spiked again in the third quarter, rising 31.5% from last year and over 25% for the rolling year. We have now seen sustained sales growth for more than three years, with transactions up four quarters in a row and 13 out of the last 14. Indeed, we are starting to see closings approaching “seller market levels,” with the 880 sales the highest since the third quarter of 2006, and the 2,714 yearlong sales the highest since 2007. To put this in perspective, we note that Orange closed about 1,200 yearly sales in each 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.
Prices. Prices were mixed, but “mixed” is a lot better than prices have been in the past few years. Indeed, Orange showed small signs of progress, with the average up 1.4%, the median down 0.4%, and the price-per-square foot up 1.6%. Prices are still down for the year, but at least the trajectory is pointing upward. We believe that prices have fallen as far as they will go, down to 2002-03 levels.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were both relatively flat: homes are selling a little more quickly, down from 202 days to 190 days, and are also selling for a bit closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up to 95.5%. We expect that sellers will continue to gain leverage as the market tightens.
Condominiums. The condo market simply exploded in the third quarter, with sales up more than 50%. Even with that surge in activity, though, we are still seeing significant downward pressure on Orange condo pricing, because the gap between single-family and condo prices is narrow enough to draw buyers into buying homes instead of condos.
Going forward, we believe that Orange County will not be able to sustain its current torrid level of sales growth, especially now that sales are close to seller market levels. But we still see significant room for price appreciation, given that prices are at attractive 2003 levels and rates are still near historic lows. Even with activity leveling off, we expect that demand will stay strong, and that will start to push prices up by 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Rockland County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Rockland County housing market surged in the third quarter of 2015, with sales up sharply and prices continuing to show signs of recovery. Although activity is likely to ease up a bit in the fourth quarter, Rockland still has ample room for both transactional and price growth over the longer-term.
Sales. Rockland sales were up sharply, rising 26.5% from the third quarter of last year and now up 16.4% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over three years, with transactions up for the last four quarters and 12 out of the last 13. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 602 quarterly closings the highest since the third quarter of 2004, and the 1,721 yearly sales the highest since 2006
Prices. This sustained surge in buyer demand had its expect impact on pricing, with prices up across the board: up 5.9% on average, 2.4% at the median, and 3.5% in the price-per-square foot. Average prices have now risen in three out of the last four quarters, and six out of the last nine. Other than a peak we briefly hit during the artificial home-buyer tax credit bounce in 2010, this was the highest quarterly average sales price point reached since the market correction in 2008.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were mixed, with the listing price retention rate rising sharply but the days-on-market flat. Going forward, we expect that the retention rate will continue to increase and the days-on-market will drop as the market tightens, strengthening sellers’ negotiating positions.
Condos. The condo market fell sharply, defying a trend throughout the region this quarter that saw the highest levels of growth in the lower priced markets. Even with the decline in closings, though, we saw good news in the pricing, with the average and median both up. Over the longer-term, the rolling year numbers were stronger, with sales up 4.2% and prices up across the board.
Going forward, we expect the Rockland market to continue to strengthen. Although we are already seeing sales near seller market levels, we’ve not yet seen any sustained appreciation in pricing. While sales activity is unlikely to maintain its current torrid pace, we believe that Rockland still has room for growth through the end of the year and into 2016.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Putnam County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Putnam County housing market exploded in the third quarter, with sales up sharply and prices spiking. Although the current rates of growth are probably not sustainable, Putnam still has room for both sales and price increases through 2016.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the third quarter, rising 23.8% from last year and coincidentally up that same 23.8% for the year. Indeed, we have now seen sustained growth in Putnam sales for almost four years, with closings up for five straight quarters and 13 out of the last 14. And we are now seeing sales totals creep up to the seller market levels, with the 291 sales the most since the third quarter of 2005.
Prices. This sustained surge in sales activity had its predicted impact on pricing, with prices up across the board: 9.9% on average, 4.7% at the median, and 7.0% in the price-per-square-foot. For the year, prices were up, just not as sharply, rising 3.4% on average, 2.5% at the median, and 0.4% in the price-per-square-foot.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were more mixed, with the listing retention rate up to 95.5% but the days-on-market rising 6.1%. For the year, listing retention was up and days-on-market were down, supporting the view that sellers are gaining more negotiating leverage.
Condominiums. The condo market exploded in the third quarter, with sales up over 50% and prices up across the board. This is consistent with what we saw throughout the region, with lower-priced entry-level markets experiencing the strongest growth. The yearly numbers, providing a larger sample size, are also impressive, with sales up 34% and average prices up 7.0%.
Going forward, we do not believe that the current rate of sales growth is sustainable, especially given that we’re now seeing sales at rates commensurate with the last decade’s seller’s market. But we do think that Putnam still has room for both sales and price growth, and expect that to continue through the end of the year and into 2016.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
So What’s Going on in the Westchester Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q3
The Westchester real estate market cooled a bit in the third quarter, if only in comparison to the torrid pace set earlier in the year. Sales were up, but just slightly, and prices were a little soft compared to 2014.
Sales. Single-family sales were up slightly, rising 5.7% from the third quarter of last year, and are now up 4.9% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained sales growth for almost four years, with year-over-year transactions going up in 14 out of the last 16 quarters. And sales totals are slowly returning to seller market levels, with the 2,060 quarterly closings the highest since 2003 and the 5,570 yearly sales the highest since 2006.
Prices. Even with these higher levels of activity, prices were down slightly, with the average down 2.6%, the median down 0.3%, and the price-per-square-foot down 0.6%. For the year, prices are more mixed, with the average down just under 1% and the median and price-per-square foot up slightly. We do not think this is anything to worry about – prices spiked prematurely in 2014, rising almost 7% in one year, so they’re easing just a bit now.
Negotiability. The listing retention and days-on-market indicators both indicated that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage. Homes are starting to sell for closer to the asking price, with listing retention up to almost 98%, and they’re selling more quickly, with the days-on-market now down to under 5 months.
Condos & Coops. The condo and coop markets were both strong, with sales up sharply and prices generally rising. Activity was way up, much more than with single-family homes, with coop sales rising 12.3% and condo sales up 21.6% from last year. This is consistent with what we saw across the region, with relatively stronger growth in the lower-priced markets.
Going forward, we expect that the Westchester market will continue to outpace sales levels from last year, and that prices will eventually start to gather momentum. With inventories tightening and interest rates near historic lows, we believe that the market is poised to finish the year strong.
To learn more about Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
