Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester County
The Westchester housing market surged in the second quarter of 2016, with sales activity up sharply but prices down slightly because of continued weakness in the ultra high‑end.
Sales. Market activity exploded, with single‑family sales up over 22% from last year and now up over 12% for the rolling year. Year‑on‑year sales have now risen in 17 out of the last 19 quarters, with rolling year closings crossing over the 6,000‑transaction level for the first time in over 10 years. We saw the same thing in the condo and coop markets, with coop sales up over 10% and condos up over 20% from last year.
Prices. Even with this continued strength in buyer demand, though, prices were still down from last year, falling almost 3% on average and 2% in the median and price‑per‑square foot. Part of this is simply a change in the mix of properties sold, with sales softer in the higher‑end markets: $3M+ sales are down about 44%, even while sales for homes priced at $500,000‑and‑below are up over 25%. Indeed, we see the same dynamic in condos and coops, with pricing in the lowest‑priced coop market up almost 7% at the median even while the mid‑priced condo market is depreciating slightly.
Inventory. We are still seeing declines in inventory levels, which are now hovering near the six‑month level that signifies a seller’s market. Single‑family listings were down 24% to 6.7 months, and inventory is even tighter in the entry‑level markets, down to 6.0 months for coops and 4.0 months for condos.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators demonstrate that sellers are gaining leverage with buyers. The days‑on‑market were down for all property types, at about the five‑month level for single‑family homes and condos, and the listing retention rate rose across the board. With homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, we would expect to see more upward pressure on pricing.
Going forward, we continue to believe that the fundamentals in the Westchester market point to appreciating prices by year‑end. With inventory tightening, pricing at 2004‑05 levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that the strength in the lower‑end of the market will eventually expand throughout all price ranges.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2016, with sharply rising sales finally starting to have an impact on pricing, particularly in the mid- and entry‑priced markets throughout the region.
Sales. Activity continues to surge, with regional sales up over 26% compared to the second quarter of last year, and rising in every county in the Rand Report. We’ve now had sales going up for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 16 out of the last 18 quarters. Most importantly, we’re now seeing sustained sales increases driving sales totals to levels that rival the height of the last seller’s market, with almost 15,000 single‑family homes and 3,000 condos sold over the past 12 months.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. In the real estate industry, we measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, and consider anything under six months of inventory as an indicator of a “seller’s market.” Well, we are not yet under six months in any of our regional markets, but we’re moving in that direction, with months of single‑family inventory down 24% in Westchester, 38% in Putnam, 32% in Rockland, 39% in Orange, and 25% in Dutchess. Condo inventory was also down, falling 38% in Westchester, 48% in Putnam, 9% in Rockland, 29% in Orange, and 18% in Dutchess. Both Westchester and Putnam condos are now below six months worth of inventory, and other counties are closing in on the threshold.
Prices. These sustained surges in sales activity are not, though, yet having a widespread impact on pricing. You’ll notice on the accompanying graph that regional average prices have been ticking down for the past year or so. This is a little surprising, given that basic economics tells us that increasing demand coupled with falling inventory should drive prices higher. But we caution you not to read too much into the regional price decline, because the relative strength of activity in the lower priced markets (Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Dutchess) compared to Westchester has changed the mix of properties sold over the past year. Indeed, if you look at individual counties, we had price appreciation in Putnam, Rockland, and Dutchess, and mixed results in Orange. It was only in Westchester that we had prices go down, but even there we believe that the drop was largely caused by a relative lack of demand in the very high end of the market, for homes selling above $3 million. In other words, both the regional price decline and the price drop in Westchester are partly caused by the relative strength of lower‑priced markets compared to higher‑priced markets throughout the region.
Going forward, we expect a robust summer market. The fundamentals of our regional market are strong: demand is rising, inventory is falling, interest rates are near historic lows, and the overall economy is doing fine. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to outpace 2015 levels, and believe it’s only a matter of time before the sustained increases in buyer demand start driving meaningful price appreciation throughout the region.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016: Real Estate Market Report: Dutchess Market Overview
The Dutchess County housing market started the year with a massive spike in sales activity, which had only a modest impact on pricing.
Sales. Dutchess County single.family home sales surged again in the first quarter, with transactions up a whopping 43% from last year. This marked the sixth quarter in a row with year on year sales increases, leading to a rolling year where sales were up almost 30%. With 2,300 sales over the rolling year, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.
Prices. In our last Report, we noted that we were starting to see the first “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess. That continued in the first quarter, with the average and median price both up a tick. The rolling year numbers are still not positive, but we think it’s only a matter of time. With these types of sustained increases in sales activity, we are bound to see an impact on pricing this year.
Inventory. We measure inventory by looking at the “months of inventory” that are available, given the current absorption rate of properties on the market. Generally, the industry regards six months of inventory as a demarcation for a seller’s market. In Dutchess, we are nowhere near that, with inventory still above 14 months. But the market is definitely tightening, with the months of inventory falling over 25% in the past year. As inventory tightens, we would expect prices to start going up.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up above 95% for the first time since the last seller’s market. And the days on market fell again, now down below six months, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly. If homes are selling more quickly, and for closer to the asking price, that means sellers are gaining a bargaining position with buyers.
Condominiums. The condo market was also robust, with sales up over 28% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and up over 22% for the year. Pricing was disappointing, though, with the average and median down for both the quarter and the year. Inventory continues to tighten, though, which could stabilize pricing in 2016.
Going forward, we believe that if Dutchess continues to see sustained increases in sale activity, we are bound to see meaningful price appreciation by the end of the year. With a stable economy, low-interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess is poised for a strong 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Putnam Market Overview
Putnam County sales and prices both spiked in the first quarter of 2016, with transactions again reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years.
Sales. Putnam sales surged again in the first quarter, with single.family home sales spiking over 35% compared to last year and now up over 21% for the rolling year. Sales have now been going up for over four years, with transactions up in seven straight quarters and 15 out of the last 16. With 976 sales for the rolling year, we’re approaching the 1,000-sale mark that we have not hit since early 2006 at the tail end of the last seller’s market. We saw the same results with condos, with sales up over 35% for the quarter and the year.
Prices. After a disappointing 2015, single.family prices started the new year with a bang, spiking over 12% on average, 10% at the median, and up just a tick in the price-per-square foot. For the rolling year, prices were up at a similarly torrid pace, rising almost 4% on average and 8% at the median. Even though these types of increases are not sustainable, we do believe that Putnam’s pricing will continue to appreciate this year, particularly as inventory continues to tighten.
Inventory. Indeed, the “months of inventory” indicator fell 24% from last year’s first quarter and is now down to under 8.0 months for single.family homes. Obviously, we’re already seeing the impact of the declining inventory on pricing, and we expect that to continue through the spring market.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were flat, with both the listing retention rate and the days on market relatively stable. We would expect homes to start selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price as the market heats up.
Condos. The story was different for condos prices, which were down sharply for the quarter, even while the rolling year prices were relatively flat or up slightly. The condo market is very small, though, so it’s prone to skewing by a few outliers.
Going forward, we believe that these levels of buyer demand will continue through a robust spring market, although we do not expect that the spike in prices is sustainable over the long term. The fundamentals of the market, though, are good, with prices still at attractive levels, buyer demand high, interest rates low, and the economy generally improving.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Orange Market Overview
The Orange County housing market finally showed the long awaited signs of meaningful price appreciation in the first quarter of 2016, with prices up significantly for the first time in almost 10 years.
Sales. Orange sales were up yet again, rising 31% from last year and now up over 28% for the rolling year. This was nothing new – we have now seen sustained increases in Orange transactions for almost four years, with sales up six quarters in a row and 15 out of the last 16. Indeed, we are now seeing sales at historically high levels, with Orange closing over 3,000 sales for the rolling year for the first time since 2007 at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Prices. What’s new is that for the first time in years, we saw some meaningful price appreciation in Orange, with prices up 3% on average, almost 4% at the median, and up just a tick in the price per square foot. This was important because prices had fallen every single calendar year since 2007 – that’s eight straight years of year-on-year price depreciation. As a result, home prices today are down almost 30% from the height of the market. But for the first time, Orange homeowners have reason to be hopeful that the trend is moving in a positive direction.
Negotiability. Certainly, the negotiability indicators support the view that Orange is due for continued meaningful price appreciation. The months of inventory in Orange fell again in the first quarter, dropping below 10 months for the first time in over 12 years. Similarly, the days on market fell again and the listing retention rate went up a full point, showing that homes are selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price – all of which tends to drive price appreciation.
Condominiums. The condo market also surged, rising over 43% for the quarter and up almost 45% for the year. So we have a lot of demand. Unfortunately, we’re not yet seeing that demand impact pricing, which was down across the board. As we’ve noted before, the problem with Orange condos is that they’re priced too close to single.family homes. If we continue to see meaningful appreciation in single.family prices, that will arrest the slide in condo prices.
Going forward, we believe that Orange is finally seeing the light at the end of the dark tunnel it entered in 2008. We expect that demand will stay strong through a robust spring market that will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through 2016 and for several years to come.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Rockland Market Overview
The Rockland County housing market started the year strong, with increases in both sales and prices that are now reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Sales. Rockland sales were up again, rising over 16% from last year’s first quarter and now up over 20% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for almost four years, with transactions up for the last six quarters and 14 out of the last 15. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 1,880 rolling year sales the highest total in over 10 years.
Prices. This sustained increase in buyer demand is having its expected impact on pricing, with prices up almost 3% on average and almost 2% in the price.per.square foot, but falling a tick at the median. For the year, the results are more uniform, with prices up about 3% across the board. After the sharp decline following the financial crisis in 2008, and then a few years of bouncing around the bottom, Rockland prices are now starting their fourth year of modest but meaningful appreciation. They still have a way to go before they gain back the losses suffered after the financial crisis of 2008, but they’re trending in a positive direction.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers are gaining a bit more leverage with buyers. We saw another dramatic decline in the number of homes for sale, for example, with the months of inventory falling over 21% and now reaching the six-month level that usually delineates a “seller’s market.” Similarly, the listing retention rate rose above 96% for the first time since 2006, and the days on market continued to fall. All together, a declining inventory, with homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, tells us that we’re moving into a strong seller’s market.
Condos. The condo market in Rockland continues to struggle. Sales were up, but not as sharply as with single.family homes. And prices were down slightly, indicating that buyer demand in the market is not pushing appreciation. With condo inventory actually rising a bit, we’re not likely to see any meaningful price appreciation in this entry level market anytime soon.
Going forward, we expect a robust spring market that will continue to drive prices and sales upward. With prices still at attractive levels, interest rates low, and the economy generally strengthening, we believe that Rockland will have its best year since the height of the seller’s market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester Market Overview
The Westchester housing market started 2016 with a surge of activity coupled with a disappointing drop in pricing, continuing a trend we watched for most of last year.
Sales. Market activity is way up, continuing a trend we’ve been watching for over four years. Residential sales rose sharply, up 11% from last year and finishing the calendar year up almost 9%. Year-on-year transactions have now gone up in 16 out of the last 18 quarters. Indeed, the 5,836 single-family, rolling.year sales was the highest 12-month total in almost 10 years, at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Even with this continued strength in buyer demand, though, single.family prices were down across the board: falling almost 7% on average, over 4% at the median, and almost 3% in the price-per-square-foot. And we’ve now seen prices go down for over a year, with the rolling year average dropping almost 4%. What’s going on? We believe that buyer demand is stronger in the lower priced markets, changing the mix of properties sold. Indeed, the price appreciation in the condo and coop markets shows that entry-level demand is strong, which indicates that perhaps we’re also seeing strong demand at the lower price points for single.family homes. We’re just not seeing the same level of activity in the higher priced markets, which is pushing overall pricing averages down.
Inventory. Indeed, the level of inventory available supports the idea that buyer demand is simply stronger at the entry level market. While inventory for single.family homes was relatively flat, we saw another drop in the number of condos and coops available. In other words, the lower end market is sizzling, while the upper end market is more lukewarm.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were a bit mixed. The days on market fell significantly, dropping to about six months for all property types. The listing retention rate was basically flat, though, indicating that sellers have not yet taken a commanding negotiating position with buyers.
Going forward, even with the current downward trend in pricing, we believe that the Westchester market is poised for a robust spring market. With inventory at a 10-year low, prices still at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that the strength in the lower end of the market will expand throughout all price ranges.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview
The Westchester and Hudson Valley regional housing market in the first quarter of 2016 picked up where 2015 left off, with another surge in sales activity that is still not yet having a widespread impact on home prices. With inventory declining throughout the region, though, we believe that we will start seeing meaningful price appreciation before the end of the year.
In our last Rand Report, we welcomed readers to the next “seller’s market,” predicting that 2016 would be marked by increasing sales, declining inventory, and rising prices. So far, we’re right on two out of the three predictions: sales continue to go up, inventory continues to go down, but prices have not yet taken off throughout the region.
Sales. Activity continues to surge across the region. Transactions were up in every single county in the Report, and collectively rose over 23% compared to the first quarter of last year and over 18% for the rolling year. This is nothing new – we’ve been watching sales go up quarter after quarter for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 15 out of the last 17 quarters. Indeed, the region closed over 14,000 single-family sales over the past 12 months, which is the highest rolling year total since the middle of 2006 – at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to tighten throughout the region. In the real estate industry, we measure inventory levels by looking at the “months of inventory” available at any given time on the market, and consider anything under six months of inventory as an indicator of a “seller’s market.” Well, we are not yet under six months in any of our regional markets, but we’re getting close, with Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland all under eight months. More importantly, inventory is tightening across the board, down sharply in most of the counties.
Prices. You’ll notice on the accompanying graph that regional sales prices have been ticking down for the past year, and went down again in the first quarter. How can that be? Why would prices be going down even while sales and inventory are going up? Well, the explanation is that it’s just an optical illusion. Don’t believe your lying eyes – prices are actually rising.
Here’s why: right now, the market is strongest in the lower.priced markets, which is disproportionately increasing the number of lower priced sales and thereby skewing the pricing. We see that most clearly in the countywide numbers, with sales up much more sharply in the lower priced markets. While sales in the highest priced market in Westchester are up only 9%, the other regional markets are spiking: Putnam up 21%, Rockland up 20%, Orange up 28%, and Dutchess up 29%. As a result, Westchester sales accounted for only 36% of the sales in the region in the first quarter of this year, compared to 40% last year and as much as 50% in prior years. So it follows that if higher priced Westchester sales are making up a smaller part of the overall transactional mix, then the average price for the region is going to drop.
Indeed, the average price was up in four out of the five counties in the region: rising 12% in Putnam, 3% in Rockland, 3% in Orange, and up just a tick in Dutchess. Prices were only down in – you guessed it! – Westchester, and we believe it’s for the exact same reason: strength in the lower end of the market. Even within Westchester, the demand was much stronger in the entry-level coop and condo markets, which had higher sales increases, rising prices, and lower levels of inventory. It follows that if the condo and coop markets were so strong, then the lowest end of the single.family market was probably also a lot more active than the middle or high end. So don’t read too much into the regional price drop, or even the decline in Westchester single-family homes.
Going forward, we expect a robust spring market. All the fundamentals point to a burgeoning “seller’s market,” with demand high, inventory falling, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy. Accordingly, we expect that sales will continue to go up, and that the strength in the lower priced markets will gradually extend throughout all price points.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Presidential Homes in the Lower Hudson Valley
For those of you who live in the Lower Hudson Valley, you probably know the area has some rich bits of history ingrained in its land. Whether or not you’re a history buff, you can’t deny how interesting it is to live in a place where notable political figures have made their mark. To coincide with the recent President’s Day and ongoing presidential debates, here are some connections previous Commander in Chiefs have with the Lower Hudson Valley.
Seeing as George Washington was our first president, we’ll begin with him. If you visit 84 Liberty Street in Newburgh, NY in Orange County, you will find the location of Washington’s headquarters, a fieldstone farmhouse that has the distinction of being the first public historic site in the country. Washington resided in this house for 16 months following the end of the American Revolution, and while staying there, he created the Badge of Military Merit, which is the predecessor to the Purple Heart. The house is now a museum that overlooks the magnificent Hudson River and also includes the Tower of Victory, which was constructed in 1890 to overlook the river. The tower is meant to honor the centennial of Washington’s stay at the house. It’s a real privilege to be in close proximity to a piece of history involving one of our Founding Fathers, so if you have time to visit this museum, I highly suggest you do so.
If you find yourself traveling around Hyde Park, NY in Dutchess County, you should go to 4097 Albany Post Road and visit the Springwood estate, which was the birthplace, home, and final resting place of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, our 32nd president. He was once quoted saying, “All that is within me cries out to go back to my home on the Hudson River,” and it’s safe to say anyone can find a sense of tranquility when living in a home as beautiful as this one next to a river as historic and gorgeous as the Hudson. The property also includes a library and museum that will teach you about FDR’s 12-year presidency (this was before the enactment of the 22nd amendment, which limits a president to two terms). In 1943, Roosevelt donated his home to the American people; and following his passing in 1945, it was given to the National Parks Service. There was even a movie released in 2012 called “Hyde Park on Hudson,” which starred Bill Murray as FDR. Roosevelt also had the quaint and cozy Top Cottage, which he built in 1937 as a retreat and eventual retirement home, where he also had guests such as King George VI and Queen Elizabeth. Top Cottage also has the distinctions of being one of the first wheelchair-accessible homes and one of the only homes designed by a living president.
In 1927, our 35th president, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, moved from Brookline, Massachusetts to the Bronx, where his family spent two years before moving into a home in Westchester County at 294 Pondfield Road, Bronxville, NY when he was 12. He and his family lived there from May 1929 to January 1942. It was a 5.5-acre hillside estate called Crownlands, and it was a Georgian-style mansion with a white exterior and red roof, and it had a circular row of columns that added to the home’s stateliness. The house also had a grand white set of stairs that descended the hill on which the house was situated. This was certainly a home where you could imagine the great Jay Gatsby hosting a party. It was demolished in 1953 by a developer who found a use for the land, which back then was the largest piece of property in the village. With Kennedy being one of our most well-known presidents, you can’t deny how neat it is for him to have lived in an area so close to us.
No matter where you live, odds are there is some interesting history behind your surrounding area. Whether it be local history or history that has a bigger connection to national history, it’s always fun to learn the story behind where you live. In celebration of Presidents’ Day 2016 and the current presidential race, take the time to acknowledge the moments in our country’s history that have touched certain places in the Lower Hudson Valley and value the opportunity we have to live in a place that has ties to a few presidencies.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Sources
So What’s Going on in the Dutchess County Real Estate Market?: The Rand Quarterly Market Report for 2015Q4
Dutchess finished the year strong, with a nice increase in sales activity coupled with the first small signs of meaningful price appreciation. For the year, sales were up sharply while prices were basically flat.
Sales. Dutchess County single-family home sales surged again in the fourth quarter, with transactions up 11% from last year. This marked the fifth quarter in a row with year-on-year sales increases, ending a year where closings were up almost 25%. Indeed, the 2,140 yearly sales represented the highest calendar year total since 2006, at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Prices. For the first time, we are starting to see some “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess, with both average and median prices up, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. For the calendar year, average prices were down a tick while the median was basically flat, but we believe that the sustained increases in buyer activity we’re seeing in Dutchess are bound to have an impact on pricing in 2016.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up to almost 95%. And the days-on-market remains down below six months for the year, indicating that homes are selling a little more quickly. As sellers gain negotiating leverage, we would expect prices to go up.
Condominiums. The condo market was robust, with sales up over 31% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and up over 20% for the year. And although prices were down sharply for the year, they spiked this quarter, indicating that we might be seeing odd fluctuations from outliers in a relatively thin market.
Going forward, we believe that with a stable economy, interest rates near historic lows, pricing at 2004 levels, and increasing buyer demand, Dutchess is poised for meaningful price appreciation in 2016.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
