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Sales in the Essex housing market went up yet again in the third quarter of 2019, even while prices leveled off after some modest increases earlier in the year. Sales rose almost 3% for the quarter, and finished the rolling year up almost 5%. But this continued increase in sales is not yet having a sustained impact on pricing, which was flat on average and down almost 3% at the median compared to the third quarter of last year. And if you look at the rolling year, pricing is virtually flat, down just a tick on average and at the median. We might be seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT Cap), which particularly affected higher‑income taxpayers like Essex County homeowners and home buyers, who are more likely to itemize their deductions and feel the pinch. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s impact will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, prices well below historic highs, low interest rates, and low levels of inventory. Accordingly, we expect modest sales growth and appreciation through the winter and into the 2020 market.
