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The Rockland housing market surged forward in the third quarter of 2019, showing the first signs of recovery from the lingering effects of the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local tax deductions (“SALT Cap”). Single-family home sales were up over 8% from last year’s third quarter, the largest increase since 2017, before the SALT Cap took effect. Pricing for the quarter was a little more mixed, with the median price rising over 3% but the average price down 1.5%, probably because the SALT Cap is still suppressing some demand in the high end. Indeed, if you look just at the condo market, which is priced well below the single-family market, you’ll see how strong demand is in the entry-level price points: prices in the quarter spiked over 13% on average and 12% in the median. Condo sales were down over 15%, but that’s largely due to a lack of viable inventory; demand remains exceptionally strong. Going forward, we believe that the SALT Cap is eventually going to get priced into the higher-end of the market, and that average prices will start to appreciate more aggressively by next year.
