Third Quarter 2019: Real Estate Market Report – Hudson County, New Jersey

After sizzling throughout much of 2018, the Hudson County housing market continued its 2019 struggles through the third quarter. Sales were down almost 6% overall from last year’s third quarter, and are now down 6% for the rolling year. But even with this decline in sales, prices still appreciated modestly: average prices were up about 1% overall, rising almost 5% for single‑family homes and 7% for multi‑families, even while falling 2% for condos. We are clearly seeing some impact from the 2018 Tax Reform’s cap on state and local tax deductions (“SALT Cap”), which particularly affected higher‑income home buyers who are more likely to itemize their deductions. The SALT Cap is hampering Hudson both directly and indirectly: directly by reducing high‑end buyer demand in the county, and indirectly by slowing the exodus from Manhattan, which is suffering through the same SALT Cap impact. Going forward, though, we expect that the SALT Cap’s effects will eventually get priced into the market, and believe that the seller market fundamentals are strong: a growing economy, low interest rates, and relatively low levels of inventory. Accordingly, we expect to see sales level out and prices continue to appreciate through the winter and into 2020.