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Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley
The story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.
Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.
The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.
Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.
Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley
The story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.
Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.
The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.
Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.
Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Dutchess County, New York
The Dutchess County housing market continued to strengthen in the third quarter of 2016, with a moderate increase in sales coupled with an eye‑opening spike in pricing.
Sales. Dutchess single‑family home sales were up again in the third quarter, rising 8% from last year. This marked the eighth quarter in a row with year‑on‑year sales increases, closing a rolling year where sales were up over 17%. With over 2,400 sales over the past 12 months, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.
Prices. This sustained increase in sales activity is finally having its expected impact on pricing. Single‑family home prices spiked in the third quarter, rising an eye‑popping 9% on average. That’s not a sustainable increase, and is likely due to a few outliers in the data, especially when you see that the median and price‑per‑square foot metrics were up a more modest 2%. But even so, the rolling year average sales price increase of 4%, and the median price increase of 3%, are both positive indicators of where this market is likely going.
Negotiability. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down over 26% to 14.1 months of active single‑family listings. Although we are nowhere near the six‑month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support further price appreciation. The other negotiability indicators – days‑on‑market and listing retention – were mixed.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising almost 18% and prices also spiking. For the year, condo sales are up 21%, and pricing is up across the board, although the 9% increase in the average price is probably not sustainable.
Going forward, we continue to believe that Dutchess is on the precipice of meaningful price appreciation. With a stable economy, low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess will finish the year strong and see even better days in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Putnam County, New York
The Putnam County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with sales way up and prices stabilizing after a summer spike.
Sales. Putnam sales were up again in the third quarter, with single‑family home closings up over 12% from last year and now up almost 22% for the year. The market is just sizzling, with transactions up in nine straight quarters and 17 out of the last 18. Similarly, condo sales were up almost 12%, and have risen almost 20% for the year. Putnam demand is strong right now.
Prices. Even with all this demand, though, we’re not seeing a dramatic impact on pricing. Single‑family home prices were basically flat for the quarter, down a tick on average and up almost 2% at the median. Condo pricing was downright scary, falling almost 20% on both the average and the median, but we caution that the Putnam condo market is very thin and can be skewed by outliers. Overall, though, it’s surprising that sustained buyer demand over almost five years has had so little impact on pricing.
Inventory. The good news for Putnam homeowners was that inventory was down again, falling almost 43% to 7.3 months of active single‑family listings and 4.7 months for condos. Anything below six months usually signifies a tight seller’s market, which would tend to drive the kind of appreciation we’ve been waiting for.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers continue to gain leverage with buyers, with the listing retention rate rising and days‑on‑market falling for both single‑family and condo sellers. We would expect homes to continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price if the market heats up.
Going forward, we do believe that the fundamentals of the market are strong, with demand high, prices at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a gradually improving economy. Accordingly, we expect the Putnam market to close the year strong, and to eventually drive some meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Orange County, New York
The Orange County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with sales up dramatically and, more importantly, the first signs of meaningful price appreciation since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Sales. Orange single‑family sales were up yet again, rising over 18% from last year and now up over 25% for the rolling year. This continues a trend we’ve been watching for over four years, with Orange sales now up eight quarters in a row and 17 out of the last 18. And the 3,400 single‑family sales for the rolling year marked the highest yearly total we’ve seen since the third quarter of 2006 ‑‑ exactly ten years ago, at the top of the last seller’s market.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are finally having a meaningful impact on pricing, with prices up across the board in the third quarter: up almost 4% on average, 3% at the median, and 4% in the price‑per‑square foot. This is all great news for Orange homeowners, who have been impatiently waiting for pricing to rebound since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Negotiability. The number of available homes for sale continues to fall, with inventory dropping almost 38% and now down to about eight months for single‑family homes and six months for condos. According to industry standards, anything below six months of inventory indicates a “tight” market that usually drives price appreciation. The other negotiability factors were mixed, with homes selling for closer to the asking price but days‑on‑market relatively flat.
Condominiums. The Orange condo market was not as active, with sales down almost 8% for the quarter. But prices showed similar signs of rebounding, with the average up almost 2%, the median up 3%, and the price‑per‑square foot spiking 7%. If the single‑family market continues to heat up, we expect that the condo market will follow.
Going forward, we believe that the Orange County housing market is looking at its best year since the height of the last seller’s market. The fundamentals are strong: demand is high, prices are still attractive, interest rates are at historic lows, and the economy is generally improving. We expect a strong finish for the year, and meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Rockland County, New York
The Rockland County market surged again in the third quarter of 2016, with a dramatic increase in sales finally driving a meaningful yearly increase in prices.
Sales. Rockland single‑family sales were up yet again, rising almost 13% from last year’s third quarter and up 20% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for over four years, with transactions up for eight straight quarters and 16 out of the last 17. Indeed, we eclipsed 2,000 single‑family sales in the rolling year for the first time in over 10 years, at the height of the last seller’s market. Sales were similarly torrid in the condo market, which was up almost 38% for the quarter and 15% for the year.
Prices. Rockland pricing is finally showing meaningful signs of price appreciation. As we noted in our last Report, the 10% spring spike in prices was not sustainable, and we saw pricing come back to earth a little bit in the third quarter: down over 2% on average, and up a tick at the median. But the rolling year single‑family prices are demonstrating the kind of appreciation that is sustainable over time, up about 3% on both the average and the median. Rockland homeowners should be happy with this trend.
Inventory. Available inventory continues to fall, with single‑family homes and condos both approaching the six‑month level that usually denotes a “tight” market. If inventory continues to fall, and buyer demand stays at its current levels, then we are likely to see continued price appreciation in the future as buyers chase fewer available homes.
Negotiability. Single‑family homes sold more quickly and for closer to the asking price, which is generally a sign that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers. The condo results were more mixed, with the listing retention rate falling slightly even while the days‑on‑market hit the six‑month mark.
Going forward, we believe that buyer demand in Rockland will stay strong through the end of the year, with prices still at attractive levels, interest rates low, and the economy generally strengthening. Indeed, we expect that Rockland will have its best year since the height of the last seller’s market.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Westchester County
The Westchester housing market softened in the third quarter of 2016, with sales flat and prices continuing to weaken even in the face of falling inventory.
SALES. Sales activity was up, but not at the pace that we’ve seen over the past few years. Single‑family home sales rose, but only by about 2%. Similarly, coop sales were actually down by almost 3%, and condo sales fell just a tick. Transactions are still up for the rolling year, rising 11% in single‑family homes, 6% in coops, and almost 12% in condos. But we might be seeing a cooling of the sizzling buyer demand that’s been driving sales up in this market for the past five years.
PRICES. We continued to see some weakness in Westchester pricing, with single‑family home prices down 3% on average, 1% at the median, and almost 2% in the price‑per‑square foot. Pricing in the condo and coop markets was a little more mixed, but the overall takeaway is that sustained levels of buyer demand over the past five years have done little to drive price appreciation.
INVENTORY. Inventory levels continue to drop, now under six months of inventory for all property types. That might explain the relative slack in market activity, if buyers are still adjusting to the limited inventory available. But if inventory continues to fall, and demand maintains its current levels, we might see the price appreciation we’ve been waiting for.
NEGOTIABILITY. The negotiability indicators were relatively hopeful. Sellers seem to be gaining a little bit of negotiating leverage, with single‑family home sellers now retaining over 98% of their last list price. And homes are now selling in under six months, which is relatively quick by historical standards.
Going forward, we continue to believe that the fundamentals in the Westchester market are strong. With inventory tightening, pricing at 2004‑05 levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a generally improving economy, we expect that buyer demand will stay strong and eventually drive meaningful price appreciation.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Dutchess County
The Dutchess County housing market surged forward in the second quarter of 2016, with strong increases in sales activity coupled with modest but promising signs of price appreciation.
Sales. Dutchess single‑family home sales were up again in the second quarter, rising 18% from last year. This marked the seventh quarter in a row with year‑on‑year‑sales increases, leading to a rolling year where sales were up almost 28%. With almost 2,400 sales over the rolling year, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.
Prices. We continue to see the first “green shoots” of price appreciation in Dutchess, with prices up just slightly on average but rising over 5% at the median. For the rolling year, pricing is flat, but we are starting to see signs that prices might be moving in a positive direction. With the sustained increases in sales activity that we’ve seen for the past two years, we are bound to see an impact on pricing eventually.
Inventory. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down over 25% to 13.5 months of active single‑family listings. Although we are nowhere near the six‑month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support the price appreciation we are expecting.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators show that Dutchess sellers might be starting to get some leverage with buyers. Homes were selling for a little closer to the asking price, with the listing retention rate up above 96% for the first time since the last seller’s market. And the days‑on‑market fell again, now down below six months.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising over 8% and prices a little mixed. For the year, condo sales are up over 28%, but pricing is down on average and at the median. Inventory continues to tighten, though, which could stabilize pricing later this year.
Going forward, we believe that Dutchess is on the precipice of meaningful price appreciation. Sales have been up for several years in a row, and it’s only a matter of time before these levels of buyer demand start driving prices up. With a stable economy, low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess is poised for better things by the end of this year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Putnam County
The Putnam County housing market surged in the second quarter of 2016, with dramatic increases in both sales and prices.
Sales. Putnam sales spiked in the second quarter, with single‑family home closings up over 36% compared to last year. The Putnam market is just sizzling, with transactions up in eight straight quarters and 16 out of the last 17. Indeed, the 1,049 closings marked the first time we have seen Putnam top 1,000 sales in a 12‑month period since early 2006, at the tail end of the last seller’s market. Condo sales were also strong, rising over 14% for the quarter and now up 31% for the rolling year.
Prices. These sustained levels of buyer demand had their expected impact on pricing, with single‑family prices up across the board compared to last year: 3% on average, 10% at the median, and 7% in the price‑per‑square foot. These results were consistent with the rolling year appreciation, which was up 3% on average, 7% at the median, and 3% in the price‑per‑square foot. Condo pricing was a little more mixed, but the overall trend was strongly positive.
Inventory. Inventory was down again, falling 38% to 8.7 months of active single‑family listings and 5.4 months for condos. Anything below six months usually signifies a tight seller’s market, which would continue to drive the kind of appreciation we are seeing in Putnam.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that single‑family sellers were gaining leverage with buyers, with the listing retention rate rising and days‑on‑market falling. The retention rate in condos was flat, but the days‑on‑market fell severely, dropping 25% to under six months of market time. We would expect homes to continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price as the market heats up.
Going forward, while we do not believe that the current levels of price appreciation are sustainable, we do believe that the fundamentals of the market are strong, with demand high, prices at attractive levels, interest rates near historic lows, and a gradually improving economy. Accordingly, we expect Putnam to enjoy a robust summer market, and experience more modest price appreciation through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second-Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Report: Orange County
The Orange County housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2016, with sales spiking over 35% from last year. But pricing was more mixed, as Orange struggles to find its footing after years of bouncing around the bottom set after the 2008‑09 correction.
Sales. Orange single‑family sales were up yet again, rising over 35% from last year and now up almost 30% for the rolling year. This continues a trend we’ve been watching for over four years, with Orange sales now up seven quarters in a row and 16 out of the last 17. Indeed, we are now seeing sales at historically high levels, with the 3,239 single‑family closings marking the highest twelve‑month total since 2007, at the tail end of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Orange homeowners have reason to be hopeful about home prices for the first time in years. The quarterly pricing was mixed, with the average down 5% but the median up 5%, an unusual spread between the average and median. But what was remarkable was that for the rolling year, Orange prices were up across the board: rising 0.1% on average, 2.3% at the median, and 0.8% in the price‑per‑square foot. That may not seem like much, but it marked the first time that Orange prices have gone up in all three metrics in almost ten years.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators also give homeowners reason to feel like sustainable price appreciation is coming, with fewer actively listed homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price. Inventory was down almost 40% from last year, below 9.0 months for the first time in over 12 years. Similarly, the days‑on‑market fell again, dropping almost 8%. And the last listed price retention rate was up again, rising to 96% for the first time since 2007.
Condominiums. The condo market continued to struggle. Sales were up slightly, but we continue to see prices falling. As we’ve noted before, the problem with Orange condos is that they’re priced too close to single‑family homes. If we continue to see meaningful appreciation in single‑family prices, that will arrest the slide in condo prices.
Going forward, we believe that Orange is poised for its first sustainable green shoots of price appreciation in almost ten years. With demand strong, prices low, interest rates down, and the economy generally improving, we expect that the market will have its best year in a decade.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
