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Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2017, with another sharp increase in sales coupled with some more meaningful signs of price appreciation. With inventory levels continuing to fall throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive a robust seller’s market through the Summer and the rest of 2017.
Sales surged throughout the region. All the Northern New Jersey markets continued their strong start to the year, with regional sales up almost 8% and transactions rising in every market in the region: up 1% for Bergen houses, 9% for Bergen condos, 8% in Passaic, 3% in Morris, 13% in Essex, and 25% in Sussex. For the rolling year, sales were up almost 8%, reaching sales levels we have not seen since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up over 70% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
The number of available homes for sale continues to go down. We calculate the “months of inventory” in a market by measuring the number of homes for sale, and then figuring how long it would take to sell them all given the current absorption rate. The industry considers anything less than six months to be a “tight” inventory that signals the potential of a seller’s market that would drive prices up – and we’re now right at that level. Indeed, inventory was down from last year in every individual county in the Rand Report: Bergen single-family homes down 12%, and condos down 29%; Passaic down 31%; Morris down 31%; Essex down 24%; and Sussex down 26%. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing.
With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some “green shoots” of modest price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re starting to see some promising signs: the regional average sales price was up almost 2% from last year’s second quarter, and the average price was up in every county other than Sussex. Looking at the long-term, the rolling year average sales price was up just a tick, but was up in every county other than Passaic.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through the rest of 2017. Sales have now been increasing for five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a robust Summer market and a strong 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Dutchess County, New York
The Dutchess County housing market showed clear signs of an emerging seller’s market in the second quarter of 2017, with the first meaningful signs of price appreciation in years.
Sales. Dutchess sales were down a tick for the quarter, probably a reflection of falling inventory in the market. For the rolling year, sales are still up a tick, but Dutchess definitely needs some “fuel for the fire” to accommodate strong buyer demand.
Prices. Home prices showed the first signs of life in a long time, with pricing up across the board: rising almost 5% on average, 3% at the median, and over 8% in the price-per-square foot. We can see the same story in the rolling year numbers, indicating that Dutchess is moving into a sustained seller’s market.
Negotiability. Dutchess inventory declined sharply in the second quarter, down 51% from last year. This might be partly caused by a change in the way we are measuring Dutchess inventory, so we don’t know that the percentage change is reliable. But the prevailing months of inventory at 7.5 months does support the idea that we’re moving into a seller’s market.
Condominiums. The condo market was up sharply after a slow start to the year, with sales up almost 52% from the second quarter of last year. Similarly, prices were way up for the quarter, with meaningful appreciation for the rolling year. The condo market is in great shape right now.
Going forward, we still believe that the Dutchess market will have a strong summer. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near-historically-low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003-04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Putnam County, New York
The Putnam County housing market showed the clear signs of constricted inventory levels, with a slowdown in sales coupled with a spike in pricing.
Sales. Putnam single-family home sales were down over 12% for the quarter, the second straight quarter of a significant decline in transactions. After over five years of steadily increasing sales, Putnam is now seeing the impact of a lack of inventory, with sales now flat for the rolling year.
Prices. The lack of inventory is also having its impact on pricing, which was up across the board: rising over 6% on average, almost 10% at the median, and almost 2% in the price-per-square foot. For the year, the pricing results are more mixed, with the average down just a tick, the median up a tick, and the price-per-square-foot flat. We have been expecting meaningful appreciation in Putnam for some time now, and still believe that low levels of inventory and stable demand will continue to drive prices up this year.
Inventory. Inventory continued to tighten, falling 23% and now down to the six-month level that usually denotes a tightening seller’s market. This lack of available homes is what’s been restricting sales, since we don’t have enough “fuel for the fire” to keep the market going. But it’s also driving prices up, as buyers chase and compete for the limited inventory that’s available.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators support the idea that a seller’s market is emerging, with the listing retention rate up just a tick and the days-on-market continuing to fall. This is exactly what we would expect in a strengthening seller’s market — homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condos. The impact of low inventory on the condo market was even more severe, with sales down almost 18%. In this case, though, prices also fell, dropping over 10% on average and over 13% in the median. The Putnam condo market is very thin, though, with only a few dozen sales, so we try not to read too much into one quarter’s worth of data.
Going forward, we believe that Putnam is poised for a strong 2017, especially if some new inventory comes onto the market to satiate the available demand. The fundamentals of the market are tremendous: inventory is low, rates are near historic lows, and prices are still at attractive 2004-05 levels.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Orange County, New York
The Orange County housing market surged again in the second quarter of 2017, with both sales and prices up sharply while inventory continued to fall.
Sales. Orange sales were up yet again, rising over 6% from last year’s second quarter. Quarterly transactions have now gone up in 11 straight quarters and 20 out of the last 21. Indeed, for the rolling year, sales were up almost 13%, and the 3,655 single-family sales were the highest total we have seen since the second quarter of 2006 — at the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. These sustained levels of buyer demand are finally having their expected impact on pricing. Home prices surged again in the second quarter, rising 9% on average, almost 7% at the median, and over 5% in the price-per-square foot. And home prices are now showing meaningful signs of appreciation over the longer-term, with the rolling year prices up over 5% on average, 4% at the median, and 3% in the price-per-square foot.
Negotiability. The available inventory continues to tighten, with the months of inventory falling almost 25% and now down close to the six-month level that usually indicates a seller’s market. Meanwhile, homes are selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, with the days-on-market falling and the listing retention rate rising.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up sharply, continuing a welcome trend that we finally saw in the first quarter. Sales were up almost 27%, and prices were up sharply. We wouldn’t read too much into the eye-popping quarterly results, but even the rolling year totals were impressive: up 4% on average, over 2% at the median, and over 4% in the price-per-square foot.
Going forward, we believe that the Orange County housing market is poised for a strong summer. The fundamentals are tremendous: demand is high, prices are still at attractive 2003-04 levels, interest rates are at historic lows, and the economy is generally strong. With inventory continuing to decline, we expect to see meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Rockland County, New York
The Rockland County housing market cooled down a little in the second quarter, with transactions and prices up only slightly after a sizzling start to the year, as the lack of inventory continues to stifle sales growth.
Sales. After spiking almost 24% in the first quarter, sales cooled down in the second, rising a little over 4% from last year. But this did continue a trend we’ve been watching for almost three years, the tenth time out of the last 11 quarters that year-on-year sales have gone up. Indeed, the 2,154 sales over the past rolling year marked the highest 12-month total since the third quarter of 2004.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are starting to have a tangible impact on pricing. Home prices were up for the quarter across the board, rising over 1% on average, almost 3% at the median, and over 1% in the price-per-square foot. And we are seeing meaningful and sustainable price appreciation over the longer term, with the rolling year median price and price-per-square-foot up over 2%. Similarly, Rockland’s average is now up over 11% from the bottom of the market in 2012.
Negotiability. Inventory continued to fall in the second quarter, depriving Rockland of the “fuel for the fire” that would drive more sales growth. The months of inventory fell almost 19%, and is now consistently at that six-month level market that denotes a seller’s market. Similarly, the listing retention rate rose and the days-on-market fell sharply, indicating that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers.
Condos. The Rockland condo market absolutely surged in the second quarter, with sales up almost 36% and prices up almost 7% on average 4% at the median. For the year, sales are up over 32%, and prices are showing the first signs of life in years. With inventory falling almost 40%, and now down to well below six months, we expect that prices will continue to rise.
Going forward, we expect that Rockland will have a strong summer market, with prices up and sales rising as much as they can with these levels of inventory. With prices still at attractive 2004 levels, interest rates near historic lows, inventory falling, and the economy generally strengthening, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Westchester County, New York
Prices in the Westchester housing market surged forward in the second quarter of 2017, even while a lack of inventory stifled potential sales growth.
Sales. Home sales were basically flat through the second quarter, falling just about 1% from the second quarter of last year. This marked the first quarter in almost three years where sales fell from the prior year, reflecting the lack of inventory available in the market. Still, though, sales are at levels we have not seen since the last seller’s market in 2005, and up almost 90% from the bottom of the market at the end of 2009.
Prices. Low levels of inventory also had an impact on prices, which were up significantly over last year. Home prices rose across the board: up over 7% on average, almost 4% at the median, and 3% in the price-per-square foot. Over the longer-term, we’re starting to see some meaningful price appreciation, with average prices up almost 3% for the rolling year.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators continue to signal the emergence of the seller’s market. Inventory declined again, falling almost 12% and now at the lowest level of inventory we have had in Westchester in over 12 years, since the height of the last seller’s market. Similarly, the listing retention rate was up a full percentage point, exactly what we would expect when sellers start to gain negotiating leverage.
Condos and Coops. The condo and coop market was mixed. Sales of coops were up over 12%, but condo sales were down over 6%, the clear result of constricted inventory levels. But that shortage of available condos and coops is having its expected impact on pricing, which was up across the board for both property types.
Going forward, we expect that Westchester is going to continue to see meaningful price appreciation through a strong summer market. With inventory still tightening, pricing at 2004-05 levels, and interest rates still near historic lows, we expect that buyer demand will stay strong for the rest of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley – Market Overview
The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley continued to show signs of meaningful price appreciation in the second quarter of 2017, with prices up in every county in the region. With inventory rates dropping, and demand strong, we expect this trend to continue through a robust Summer market and through the rest of 2017.
Inventory throughout the region continues to drop. Regional inventory was down almost 18%, and is now down to 7.1 months — right at the level that the industry considers a “balanced” market. But many of the individual counties in the region are now down around six months, moving into “seller’s market” territory.
The lack of inventory continues to stifle sales growth. Regional sales were down just a tick compared to the second quarter of last year, just barely breaking a 10-quarter streak of year-on-year sales growth. We noted in our last report that the pace of growth was slowing. Now, it has stalled, at least until we get more “fuel for the fire.” All that said, buyer demand is as strong as we’ve seen in over 10 years, with regional sales up 5% for the year and reaching the highest 12-month sales total since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005.
These inventory levels are starting to drive meaningful price appreciation. The regional average sales price was up over 6% for the quarter, following a similar 7% increase in the first quarter. After several years of slow declines, prices are now up over 1% for the rolling year. That may not seem like much, but it’s a sign of things to come. Indeed, average prices were up in every county in the region, rising over 7% in Westchester, over 6% in Putnam, over 1% in Rockland, 9% in Orange, and almost 5% in Dutchess. We should not be surprised — sales have been going up year after year, and it was only a matter of time before this type of demand drove some meaningful price appreciation.
Going forward, we expect that prices will continue to appreciate through the rest of the year. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2003-04 levels (without controlling for inflation), a generally strong economy, and sharply declining inventory. We will need fresh new listings to drive more sales growth, but we expect that we will continue to see price appreciation through a robust Summer market and throughout 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Managing Stress During House Hunting
There aren’t two ways around it, you’re going to encounter stress when you’re searching for a home. But it’s not just you; everyone experiences it. And why wouldn’t you? This is one of the most significant investments you’ll make in life. I know acknowledging this will make you nervous, but there isn’t any use in denying this while searching for your next living space. But no matter the stress you face, there are ways you can deal with it, and that’s what we’re here for today.
I realize we have brought this up in a lot of our past blogposts, but the best way to drive stress away when doing anything real-estate related is to hire an agent. They know the inner workings of the industry and can assist you in navigating the market as you figure out which house will work best for you and what you can afford. Any pressing questions you have, they can answer, or will get back to you as soon as they can if they need to look for the answer elsewhere. Agents are here to help you carry the work as you house hunt, and they will be there with you from the start of your search to the time you sign those closing documents.
Just like with college essays and projects, the best thing you can do to keep stress at bay is start your search. You probably have a date set for when you want to move, so don’t waste any time. Every minute is essential, and with buying a home being a very important purchase, you can’t afford to wait until the last minute and possibly choosing the wrong house in your haste to grab a property. You don’t want to procrastinate and then find the best homes have been snatched up. It’s best to start early so you can analyze all of your options in order to make an informed decision. Time is fleeting, so don’t let it get away!
As you begin your search, you should know what you want in your home. Although you don’t know which house you will end up buying, you do know what you want it to include. How many bathrooms and bedrooms do you want? Would you like a house with a pool? A two-car garage? A patio? Central air conditioning, or wall units? If you’re looking at homes without knowing what you want, you might as well conduct your search while blindfolded. Looking at homes without knowing exactly what you want may not be the best use of your time.
Here’s a word everyone wants out of their vocabulary: paperwork. Yes, we all would live more peacefully without it, but it’s a necessary evil when it comes to real estate. I’m not trying to alarm you in saying there’s going to be a lot of reading and signing of real estate documents, but to let you know this is something of which you NEED to keep track. With everything that goes into buying a house, such as getting pre-approved for a mortgage, obtaining an insurance plan, and putting in an offer, you can bet there will be paperwork to go with it. You should keep everything together in your home so if you ever need to reference back to a certain document, you’ll know where to find it.
Before you start the procession of purchasing a house, it will benefit you to get pre-approved for a mortgage. You can imagining how frustrating it will be if you find a property you’re interested in, only to find out you won’t be given any financing. It would be in your best interest to get all of the financial aspects in order from the beginning because agents and sellers only want to deal with buyers who have been pre-approved, obviously. What you should do is improve your credit score and get all of your bills paid on time. Doing these things will make you look ready in the eyes of the banks, and having your bank statements and current income records with you will assist lenders in determining your eligibility for a mortgage. Remember what I said not too far back about paperwork? This is why you need it.
As you house hunt, you have to be prepared to fit open houses and private showings into your schedule. I realize you’re busy with work, but going to as many open houses as you can is essential in seeing which houses will meet your needs. If possible, it will be best to see a few houses within a few days. That way, you won’t have an extended period of time between showings, and you won’t be straining to remember what you liked and didn’t like about a house. This will allow you to make easy and thorough comparisons of the homes. Despite having more time over the weekend to attend an open house, it may benefit you to visit a home on a weekday because there’s the possibility of there being less people, which will give you more one-on-one time with the listing agent, and you’ll be able to ask as many questions as you want.
When you’re buying a home, you’ll most likely experience the “fear of missing out,” which is a case when someone else may put in an offer on a house you only just viewed, leaving you compelled to put in an offer as well. This happens particularly in seller’s markets, which occur when there are high prices and low inventory. In such a case, your feelings may get ahead of your rational thoughts, influencing you to put in an offer. However, it’s important you don’t do this unless you’re certain this is the house you want. It may feel discouraging to miss out on a home, but it will feel worse to make a quick decision on a house, only to move in and realize this isn’t the house you wanted after all.
Yes, there is stress that goes into searching for and buying a home, but there are also a lot of ways with which you can combat that stress. Although some unexpected things may come up during the process, you can triumph over it all if you start on time and have a plan and some professionals at the ready. Buying a house is one of the most important things you’ll do, and you shouldn’t let stress get the best of you. At the start of each day, just look at yourself in the mirror and tell yourself it’s all going to work out.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
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First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Sussex County, New Jersey
Activity in the Sussex County housing market surged yet again in the first quarter of 2017, with sales up sharply even while prices retreated slightly after a strong showing last year.
Sales. Sussex sales were up yet again in the first quarter, rising over 32% from last year. And for the year, sales increased over 19%, with almost 2,500 home sales representing the highest 12-month total in over 10 years. Indeed, Sussex sales are now up almost 120% from the bottom of the market in 2011, as a clear seller’s market begins to emerge.
Prices. In our last Report, we noted that the 8% spike in the average sales price in the fourth quarter was probably not sustainable. Well, that played out as we expected in the first quarter, with prices retreating almost 2% on average and an eye-popping 7% at the median. Again, though, don’t read too much into quarterly price changes. Instead, focus on the rolling year, which shows more meaningful, and sustainable, price appreciation levels of over 1% on average and almost 5% at the median.
Inventory. The Sussex inventory of available homes for sale fell dramatically by over 36%, dropping to just 9.2 months. That’s a significant decline, but inventory is still higher than in other Northern New Jersey counties, which are all approaching the six-month inventory line that usually signals the beginning of a seller’s market. But if inventory continues to go down, we would expect that to put some additional upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. The negotiability metrics indicated that sellers were gaining some negotiating leverage with buyers. The days-on-market fell dramatically, dropping by 23 days and now down to just over five months of market time. And sellers were retaining a little more of their asking price, with listing retention jumping up to 96.5% for the quarter and over 95% for the year.
Going forward, we expect that Sussex is going to continue to see rising sales coupled with more consistent price appreciation. With an improving economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near-historically-low interest rates, we expect buyer demand, coupled with declining inventory, to drive a robust Spring market and a strong 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Essex County, New Jersey
The Essex County housing market started the year strong, with another increase in sales activity finally showing some impact on pricing.
Sales. Essex sales activity was up sharply from the first quarter of last year, rising almost 12% and driving the rolling year activity up almost 5%. Buyer demand has been inconsistent throughout the year, certainly not as strong as we are seeing in neighboring Northern New Jersey counties. But Essex closed over 5,000 units over the rolling year, the largest 12-month total since the height of the last seller’s market over 10 years ago, and up over 65% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Prices. Essex buyer demand is finally showing signs of an impact on pricing. The average price was up almost 4% from the first quarter of last year. Although the median was down just a tick for the quarter, and the rolling year pricing is still down, that increase in the average price was still promising. With inventory continuing to fall and buyer demand relatively strong, we would expect prices to gain some momentum in the Spring market.
Inventory. Essex inventory fell again, dropping almost 39% from last year’s first quarter and now down to 5.8 months. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. So the fact that Essex crossed that threshold this quarter augurs well for pricing in 2017.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – suggested that sellers might be gaining just a little bit of negotiating leverage. The days-on-market fell by six days, and the listing retention rate was up sharply. Indeed, for the calendar year, sellers retained over 99% of their last list price. That’s another positive signal of potential future appreciation.
Going forward, we expect that Essex County’s sales activity will eventually have a meaningful impact on pricing. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that low inventory levels coupled with stable buyer demand will drive modest but meaningful price appreciation through a robust Spring market and the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
