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Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Orange County
Pricing in Orange’s housing market exploded again in the second quarter, driven by high demand and low supply. Unlike the other Hudson Valley counties, sales were actually up, with house sales rising 3% for the quarter and 6% for the year. Condo sales were down for the quarter, but were still up almost 10% for the year. The real story, though, was pricing. After years of slow leaks, Orange prices are roaring back, with quarterly house prices up almost 11% on average, 7% at the median, and almost 10% in the price‑per‑square foot. And condo pricing was up over 7% on average, 2% at the median, and almost 11% in the price‑per‑square foot. Going forward, we see these trends continuing through the end of the year, with low supply and high demand driving meaningful price appreciation through a robust summer and fall.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.
Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Rockland
Activity in Rockland’s housing market continued to be shackled by low levels of inventory in the second quarter, which drove sales down again, even while pushing prices up sharply. Transactions fell almost 10% for houses and 13% for condos, the largest drops since the market correction almost 10 years ago. As a result, pricing is way up from last year, with house prices rising over 8% on average, almost 6% at the median, and almost 5% in the price‑per‑square foot (condo pricing is more mixed). But we are starting to see signs that rising prices might be attracting more sellers into the market, which should eventually stabilize sales. Going forward, though, we think that high demand and low inventory will continue to stifle sales and drive price appreciation at least through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.
Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Westchester
Westchester’s lack of inventory again held back sales while driving pricing up in the second quarter. Sales fell for the fourth quarter out of the last five, with activity dropping by almost 5% for houses, 13% for coops, and almost 9% for condos. But high levels of demand, coupled with this depleted supply, continued to push the rolling-year average price up: rising about 2% for houses, 4% for coops, and 1% for condos. The supply shortage may be easing, though, with the months of inventory actually rising for both houses and condos for the first time in several years. Going forward, we expect that rising prices will continue to bring sellers into this market, which will probably stabilize sales for the third quarter. But we still think that prices have significant upside potential, simply because of the high levels of demand in the market, relatively low inventory, and good economic conditions.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.
Real Estate Market Report: 2nd Quarter 2018 – Lower Hudson Valley (New York)
The regional housing market in the New York City northern suburbs surged again in the second quarter of 2018, with high demand and low supply driving prices up throughout the area.
We are clearly in a “seller’s market.” The main story in the market right now is a textbook illustration of basic economic principles: when demand is high, and supply is low, prices go up. This is essentially what a seller’s market looks like, with low levels of inventory coupled with high demand holding sales down while driving prices up. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing throughout the region:
Sales are down. Regional single‑family home sales in the quarter fell almost 3%, and condo sales fell 7%, continuing a trend we’ve been watching for the past year ‑‑ indeed, the rolling-year sales were down about 2% for all property types. To put this in perspective, rolling-year sales had gone up in 24 out of the last 25 quarters prior to the first quarter of this year. And the decline is universal, with single‑family sales down in virtually every county in the region: falling almost 5% in Westchester, 4% in Putnam, and 10% in Rockland (sales rose slightly in Orange and Dutchess).
Prices are up. But all this demand, coupled with a lack of supply, is having its expected impact on pricing. Single‑family average prices were up across the board, rising over 3% for the region and up in every county in the region: up over 2% in Westchester, almost 3% in Putnam, over 8% in Rockland, almost 11% in Orange, and over 10% in Dutchess. And for the first time in over 10 years, single‑family average prices for the rolling year were up in every county in the region.
Inventory is low, but is starting to rise. The key to this market, of course, is the amount of available supply: the number of homes for sale in the market. Inventory has been falling for several years now, holding back sales and driving prices up. But that same economics textbook teaches us that as prices go up, eventually supply starts to rise. Why? Because rising prices attract sellers into the market.
And that is exactly what we’re starting to see: stabilizing inventory. Inventory is still low, but it’s starting to settle at about the six‑month level that signals a balanced market. Indeed, the months of inventory in the region was at 6.2 months, flat compared to the second quarter of last year. And inventory was actually up in both Westchester and Rockland. It might be too early to call a shift in the market, but this was a noticeable change after several years of sharp inventory declines quarter after quarter.
Going forward, we expect the market to continue to grow through 2018. The seller’s market is really just starting to hit its stride, where high demand meets higher supply and pushes both sales and prices up over last year. Higher prices might be tempting more sellers into the market, but we believe that demand is strong enough to accommodate this supply, and drive price appreciation through the end of the year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Sussex County, New Jersey
The Sussex County housing market surged yet again in the fourth quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply and an eyeopening spike in prices.
Sales. Sussex sales were up again in the fourth quarter, rising over 18% from the fourth quarter of last year. And for the year, sales increased almost 19%, finishing 2016 with the highest yearly transactional total in over 10 years, since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, Sussex sales are now up 113% from the bottom of the market in 2011. Essentially, Sussex buyer demand is as strong as we have ever seen it.
Prices. Sussex prices absolutely spiked, rising over 8% on average and almost 10% at the median compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Those kinds of surges are probably unsustainable statistical aberrations, particularly since the calendar year increases were much more modest, with prices up just 0.2% on average and 1.5% at the median. That said, for Sussex homeowners, price appreciation has been a long time coming, so unsustainable good news is still good news.
Inventory. The Sussex inventory of available homes for sale fell by 22%, dropping to just over 11 months. That’s a significant decline, but inventory is still significantly higher than in other Northern New Jersey counties, which are all approaching the six-month inventory line that usually signals the beginning of a seller’s market. But if inventory continues to go down, we would expect that to put some additional upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. The negotiability metrics were mixed. Homes took a little longer to sell, with the days-on-market rising by five days. But sellers were retaining a little more of their asking price, with listing retention jumping up to 95.4% for the quarter. As the market heats up, we would expect both these indicators to show that sellers are gaining negotiating leverage with buyers.
Going forward, we expect that Sussex is likely to see some meaningful and sustained price appreciation in 2017. With an improving economy, homes priced at relatively attractive 2004 levels (without adjusting for inflation), and near historically low interest rates, we expect buyer demand coupled with declining inventory to drive a rising market in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Essex County, New Jersey
The Essex County housing market finished the year with a surge in sales, but these sustained increases in buyer demand have not had their expected impact in driving price appreciation.
Sales. Essex sales activity recovered from a disappointing third quarter, with sales rising almost 11% from the fourth quarter of last year and finishing the calendar year up almost 5%. Buyer demand has been inconsistent throughout the year, certainly not as strong as we are seeing in neighboring Northern New Jersey counties. That said, Essex closed over 5,000 units in 2016, the largest calendar year total since the height of the last seller’s market over 10 years ago, and up almost 61% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Prices. Essex pricing was also a bit disappointing, with the average down over 2% and the median down 3% from the fourth quarter of last year. The results were similar when we looked at the full 2016 calendar year, where prices were down over 2% on average and almost 4% at the median. This is a little surprising, given that an increase in buyer demand is usually associated with some upward pressure on pricing.
Inventory. Essex inventory fell again, falling almost 27% from last year’s fourth quarter and now down to 7.0 months. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. So Essex’s relatively low inventory levels raise the possibility of meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – suggested the sellers might be gaining just a little bit of negotiating leverage. The days-on-market fell by five days, and the listing retention rate was up sharply. Indeed, for the calendar year, sellers retained over 99% of their last list price. That’s another positive signal of potential future appreciation.
Going forward, we expect that Essex County’s sales activity will eventually have a meaningful impact on pricing. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that low inventory levels coupled with stable buyer demand will drive modest but measurable price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Morris County, New Jersey
The Morris County housing market finished the year with a sharp increase in sales, but sustained buyer demand throughout 2016 still has not had a significant impact on pricing.
Sales. Morris County sales were up significantly, rising almost 12% from the fourth quarter of last year. This continued a streak in which year-on-year sales have now gone up for nine straight quarters, over two years of sustained buyer demand. Transactions were also up 12% for the year, and are now up about 56% from the bottom of the market in 2011. So sales have now been strong for several years, indicating that buyer demand is growing.
Prices. All this sales activity, though, has not yet had its expected impact on pricing. Prices were mostly mixed for the quarter, falling over 2% on average even while the median was flat. For the year, prices were stubbornly resistant to the increasing buyer demand, falling almost 3% on average and 1% at the median. This was surprising and disappointing, particularly after the modest price appreciation that we saw in 2015.
Inventory. Morris inventory fell again, dropping over 26% from last year’s fourth quarter and now down to 7.3 months. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. So the fact that Morris inventory is now down to just over seven months of inventory could indicate that we will see meaningful price appreciation next year.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed signs that sellers might be gaining leverage with buyers. The days-on-market indicator was down by nine days, falling almost 7%, indicating that homes were selling more quickly. And the listing price retention rate continues to rise, now up to just under 97% for the quarter and the year, signaling that sellers might be having a bit more success getting buyers to meet their asking prices.
Going forward, we expect that Morris County’s sales activity will eventually have a meaningful impact on pricing. With homes still at relatively affordable 2004 prices (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that reduced inventory coupled with rising buyer demand will drive price appreciation through 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Passaic County, New Jersey
Sales in the Passaic County housing market rose again in the fourth quarter of 2016, but they are still not having their expected impact on pricing
Sales. Passaic sales finished the year strong, rising almost 14% from last year’s fourth quarter and finishing the year up over 12%. We’ve now seen sustained increases in buyer demand for over five years, with quarterly sales up in 20 out of the last 22 quarters. As a result, Passaic closed almost 3,300 homes for the calendar year, the highest total we’ve seen in over 10 years, since the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. Unfortunately, these sustained increases in buyer demand are not yet impacting pricing. Prices were down fairly sharply for the quarter, falling over 5% on average and almost 3% at the median. And that finished off a calendar year where prices were down almost 3% on average and 1% at the median. This is surprising, because we would normally expect sustained increases in buyer demand to drive meaningful price appreciation. It may just be a matter of time, but basic economic principles would indicate that increasing demand, coupled with declining inventory, should drive prices higher.
Inventory. The Passaic inventory of available homes for sale fell again, down over 22% from last year’s fourth quarter. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. So the fact that Passaic is now down to just over eight months of inventory is important, since it presages the possibility of price appreciation in 2017.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators indicated that sellers are gaining leverage with buyers. The days-on-market were down sharply, falling 15 days from the fourth quarter of last year and now down to under five months of market time. The listing retention rate was relatively flat for the quarter, but up to almost 97% for the year. If the market tightens, we would expect that homes would continue to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Going forward, we believe that Passaic’s fundamentals are sound, with homes priced at relatively attractive levels, rates near historic lows, and a stable economy. Accordingly, we expect these sustained levels of buyer demand, coupled with declining inventory, to finally drive meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Bergen County, New Jersey
The Bergen County housing market finished strong in the fourth quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply and prices showing signs of meaningful appreciation.
Sales. Bergen single-family home sales were up almost 11% for the quarter, the ninth straight quarter where we’ve seen year-on-year sales growth. And for the year, sales were also up 11%, marking the third straight year of sales increases. Indeed, sales in the 2016 calendar year hit their highest levels since 2005, and are now up 55% from their 2011 bottom.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand showed signs of finally having their expected impact on pricing. Single-family home prices were up almost 4% on average and 3% at the median compared to the fourth quarter of last year, the largest quarterly increase in almost three years. Even with that strong fourth quarter, though, the calendar year was relatively mixed, with the average price down a tick and the median up just about 1%.
Inventory. Bergen single-family inventory tightened dramatically, with the number of available single-family homes falling almost 30% and the months of inventory now down under four months, well below the six-month mark that usually denotes a “tight” market. With inventory this low, and demand staying strong, we would expect some upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators were relatively mixed for single-family homes, with the days on market down a little and the listing retention rate up a bit. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to start seeing sellers gain negotiating leverage, with homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price.
Condos. The Bergen condo market was relatively flat in the fourth quarter, with sales down a tick and prices mixed. For the year, though, the results were more encouraging, with sales up 10% and prices up about 4% across the board.
Going forward, we remain confident that Bergen County is slowly moving into a strong seller’s market. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near-historically low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will drive meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall – Northern New Jersey
The Northern New Jersey housing market finished strong in the final quarter of 2016, with sales up sharply even while pricing continued to struggle. But with inventory levels falling throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive meaningful if modest price appreciation in 2017.
Sales were strong throughout the region. After a relatively slow third quarter, regional sales surged back, rising almost 11% and up sharply in every county in the report: rising 11% in Bergen, 14% in Passaic, 12% in Morris, 11% in Essex, and 18% in Sussex. This strong fourth quarter helped the region close the 2016 year up almost 11% in sales, reaching the highest yearly transactional total in over ten years, since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up 63% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Inventory continues to tighten. We determine the “months of inventory” in a market by measuring the number of homes for sale, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all given the current absorption rate. The industry considers anything less than six months to be a “tight” inventory that signals the potential of a seller’s market that would drive prices up. Well, the months of inventory for the Northern New Jersey region has now crossed over that line, dropping down to 5.3 months. Moreover, inventory was down in every individual county in the Rand Report, and is now below or nearing the six-month level: Bergen single-family homes at 3.6 months and condos at 6.1 months, Passaic at 8.3, Morris at 7.3, Essex at 7.0, and Sussex at 11.3. Certainly, if inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see upward pressure on pricing.
Even with sales up and inventory down, though, average prices have been flat or falling throughout the region. Basic economics of supply and demand tells us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we should expect to see some meaningful price increases. But prices languished, with the regional price down just a tick from last year’s fourth quarter, but down almost 2% for the year. Moreover, the average prices for the year were down in almost all of the individual counties, rising only for Bergen condos, with just a tick up for Sussex. And maybe that’s the tell it might be that the market is simply stronger at the lower end, so lower priced homes (like Bergen condos and Sussex properties) are making up a larger percentage of the mix of properties sold.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will drive price appreciation in 2017. Sales have now been increasing for almost five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe that better days are ahead, and that we are likely to see modest but meaningful price appreciation in 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
