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Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Sussex County Market Overview
Activity in the Sussex County housing market surged yet again in the third quarter of 2017, with sales up sharply even while prices continued to struggle.
Sales. Sussex sales were up yet again in the third quarter, rising over 17% from last year and now up over 22% for the year. The 2749 closings represented the highest 12‑month total in over 10 years. Indeed, Sussex sales have now more than doubled from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Prices. Even with these sustained increases in buyer demand, though, prices continued to struggle. We saw some “green shoots” of price appreciation at the end of 2016, with the average price up almost 8% in the fourth quarter. But prices are now down every quarter in 2017, falling 2% in the first, 2% in the second, and now 3% in the third. As a result the rolling year price is basically flat, with the media down just a tick.
Inventory. The Sussex inventory of available homes for sale fell again, dropping 11% and now down to about 10 months. That’s a significant decline, but inventory is still higher than in other Northern New Jersey counties, which are all approaching the six‑month inventory line that usually signals the beginning of a seller’s market. If inventory continues to go down, we would expect that to put some additional upward pressure on pricing.
Negotiability. The negotiability metrics indicated that sellers were gaining negotiating leverage with buyers. The days‑on‑market fell sharply, dropping by almost a month and down now to about four months of market time. And sellers were retaining a lot more of their asking price, with listing retention jumping almost two percentage points and now up to almost 97%.
Going forward, we expect that Sussex is going to continue to see rising sales that will eventually drive meaningful price appreciation. With an improving economy, homes priced at attractive levels, and near‑historically low interest rates, we expect buyer demand coupled with declining inventory to drive a strong fall market and a robust 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter Real Estate Market Report: Essex County Market Overview
The Essex County housing market slowed a touch in the third quarter of 2017, with sales up a bit but prices mixed.
Sales. Essex sales activity was up again, rising almost 4% from the third quarter of last year. This continues a trend that’s been developing for a while, with the rolling year sales up over 9%. Indeed, Essex closed over 5,300 units over the rolling year, the largest 12‑month total since the height of the last seller’s market over 10 years ago, and up almost 70% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Prices. Pricing, though, was mixed. Even with these sustained increases in buyer demand, the average price was down almost 2% for the quarter, even while the median was up just a tick. We see the same mixed story in the yearlong trends, with the average down just a tick while the median is up about 1%. With inventory continuing to fall and buyer demand relatively strong, we would expect prices to gain some momentum in the fall.
Inventory. Essex inventory fell again, dropping over 29% from last year’s third quarter and now down to just under six months’ worth of available homes. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators – the amount of time sold homes were on the market, and the rate at which sellers were able to retain their full asking price – suggested the sellers might be gaining significant negotiating leverage. Most notably, the listing retention rate crossed the 100% threshold for second quarter in a row, meaning that Essex homes on average are selling for higher than the listed price. Similarly, the days‑on‑market fell about 5%, and is now down to under four months of market time. Those are both positive signals of potential future appreciation.
Going forward, we expect that Essex County’s sales activity will slowly drive some meaningful price appreciation. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that low inventory levels coupled with stable buyer demand will drive a strong market through the rest of 2017.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Morris County Market Overview
Prices in the Morris County housing market showed more signs of life in the third quarter of 2017, even while low levels of inventory continued to stifle sales growth.
Sales. Morris County sales were up just a tick, continuing a streak in which year‑on‑year sales have now gone up for 12 straight quarters, three full years of sustained buyer demand. For the year, sales were up over 5%, and are now up over 65% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
Prices. These sustained levels of buyer demand are finally having some modest impact on pricing. Continuing a trend that started this year, prices were up again, this time by about 2% on average and 3% at the median. And we are starting to see long‑term price appreciation, with the rolling year average price up 1% and the median rising over 2%. Sustained levels of buyer demand coupled with falling inventory is likely to drive pricing up through the rest of the year.
Inventory. Morris inventory fell again, dropping almost 30% from last year’s third quarter and now down to just under six months’ worth of inventory. We measure “months of inventory” by calculating the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes at the current rate of absorption, and generally consider anything below six months to signal a seller’s market that would normally drive prices up. So the fact that Morris inventory is now at that six‑month mark indicates that we could be in for some meaningful price appreciation throughout 2018.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers are continuing to gain negotiating leverage with buyers. The days‑on‑market indicator was down by another 9 days, falling almost 8%, indicating that homes were selling more quickly. And the listing price retention rate continues to rise, now up to just over 98% for the quarter, signaling that sellers are having more success getting buyers to meet their asking prices.
Going forward, we expect that Morris County’s sales activity and low levels of inventory will continue to have a meaningful impact on pricing. With homes still at historically affordable prices, interest rates low, and a generally improving economy, we believe that Morris will have a strong fall market leading to a robust 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Passaic County Market Overview
The Passaic County housing market surged in the third quarter of 2017, with both sales and prices showing signs of a strong seller’s market.
Sales. Passaic sales were up again in the third quarter, rising over 8% and now up over 13% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained increases in buyer demand for over five years, with quarterly sales up in 23 out of the last 25 quarters. As a result, Passaic closed over 3,600 homes for the calendar year, the highest total we’ve seen since the height of the last seller’s market ten years ago.
Prices. More importantly, we’re starting to see these sustained levels of buyer demand have an impact on pricing. Prices were up across the board in the third quarter, rising over 3% on average and over 6% at the median. More importantly, the yearlong trend was also positive, with prices up just a tick on average but rising almost 2% at the median. With buyer demand strong, and inventory falling, we would expect prices to continue to rise.
Negotiability. The Passaic negotiability metrics indicated that sellers are continuing to gain leverage over buyers. Inventory was down again, falling over 28% from last year, and is now down to about the six‑month level that starts to signal a rising seller’s market. Meanwhile, homes were selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, with the days‑on‑market falling almost 15% and the listing retention rate up a full percentage point.
Going forward, we believe that Passaic’s fundamentals are sound, with homes priced at relatively attractive levels, rates near historic lows, and a stable economy. Accordingly, we expect these levels of buyer demand, coupled with declining inventory, to continue to drive price appreciation in a robust fall market and into 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter Real Estate Market Report: Bergen County Market Overview
Prices in the Bergen County housing market rose again in the third quarter of 2017, even while declining inventory stifled sales growth.
Sales. With inventory continuing to decline, Bergen lacks “fuel for the fire” to satisfy the existing buyer demand. As a result, home sales were relatively flat again, up only about 1% from last year’s third quarter and now up about 4% for the rolling year. This does, though, mark the 12th straight quarter of year‑on‑year sales growth, over three full years of rising sales. What’s holding sales back right now is not a lack of demand, but a lack of inventory. If we start seeing more homes hit the market, we’ll see sales go up sharply.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand are having their expected impact on pricing. Bergen prices rose again in the third quarter, up 3% on average and almost 6% at the median. And for the year, prices are now up significantly: rising almost 5% on average and over 4% at the median.
Negotiability. All the negotiability indicators are also signaling a rising seller’s market. Inventory continued to tighten in the third quarter, with the months of inventory falling almost 17% and now down to well under five months. Similarly, homes are continuing to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price: the listing retention rate is now over 97%, and the days‑on‑market is down to under two months. As inventory tightens and the market heats up, we would expect to see sellers continue to gain negotiating leverage.
Condos. Activity in the Bergen condo market was up in the third quarter, with sales rising almost 5% from last year. Prices were down, though, with the average falling over 3% and the median down almost 6%. With inventory now down well below six months, though, we would expect to eventually see more meaningful price appreciation.
Going forward, we expect Bergen County will enjoy a strong fall market with both rising sales and prices. With inventory tightening, a relatively strong economy, near‑historically‑low interest rates, and prices still at attractive 2004‑05 levels, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017 and into next year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Northern New Jersey Market Overview
The Northern New Jersey housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2017, with another increase in sales and modest-but-meaningful price appreciation. With inventory levels continuing to fall throughout the region, we expect that sustained buyer demand will drive a robust seller’s market through rest of the year and into 2018.
Sales surged throughout the region. All the Northern New Jersey markets continued to grow, with regional sales up over 4% and transactions rising in every market in the region: up 1% for Bergen houses, 5% for Bergen condos, 8% in Passaic, 0.4% in Morris, 4% in Essex, and 17% in Sussex. For the rolling year, sales were up 8%, reaching sales levels we have not seen since the height of the last seller’s market. Indeed, regional sales are now up over 75% from the bottom of the market in 2011.
The number of available homes for sale continues to go down. Indeed, inventory was down from last year in every individual county in the Rand Report: Bergen single‑family homes down 17%, and condos down 22%; Passaic down 28%; Morris down 29%; Essex down 29%; and Sussex down 11%. Moreover, most of our Northern New Jersey markets have reached the six‑months‑of‑inventory level that traditionally starts to signal a seller’s market. If inventory continues to tighten, and demand stays strong, we are likely to see more upward pressure on pricing.
With sales up and inventory down, prices are starting to show some “green shoots” of modest price appreciation. Basic economics of supply and demand would tell us that after five years of steadily increasing buyer demand, we would expect to see some meaningful price increases. And we’re starting to see some promising signs: the regional average sales price was flat, but prices were up sharply in Bergen, Passaic, and Morris, even while they continue to struggle in Essex and Sussex.
Going forward, we remain confident that rising demand and falling inventory will continue to drive price appreciation through the rest of 2017. Sales have now been increasing for five years, which has brought inventory to the seller’s market threshold in much of the region. The economic fundamentals are all good: homes are priced at 2004 levels (without even adjusting for inflation), interest rates are still near historic lows, and the regional economy is stable. Accordingly, we continue to believe the region is poised for a strong fall market and a strong 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Market Report: Dutchess County Market Overview
The Dutchess County housing market showed clear signs of an emerging seller’s market in the third quarter of 2017, with a lack of inventory constricting growth but driving prices up.
Sales. Dutchess sales were down again in the third quarter, more a reflection of falling inventory in the market than a decline in buyer demand. Sales were down almost 5% for the quarter and are now down over 2% for the rolling year. Dutchess definitely needs some “fuel for the fire” to accommodate strong buyer demand.
Prices. Home prices continued to show the effects of declining inventory coupled with strong demand, with pricing up over 3% on average, 5% at the median, but down almost 12% in the price‑per‑square foot. We can see the same story in the rolling year numbers, with the average price up 2% and the median up over 3%, indicating that Dutchess is moving into a sustained seller’s market.
Negotiability. Dutchess homes are continuing to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price, reflecting the negotiating leverage that sellers are getting in this market.
Condominiums. The condo market was down after a spike in the second quarter, with sales falling almost 11%. Prices were also down for the quarter, even while the yearlong trend was mostly positive.
Going forward, we believe that the Dutchess market will finish the year strong. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near‑historically‑low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003‑04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year and into next year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Market Report: Putnam County Market Overview
The Putnam County housing market slowed a bit in the third quarter of 2017, with sales falling and prices mixed.
Sales. Putnam single‑family home sales were down almost 10% for the quarter, the third straight quarter of a significant decline in transactions. After over five years of steadily increasing sales, Putnam is now seeing the impact of a lack of inventory, with sales now down 5% for the rolling year.
Prices. This lack of inventory, though, is not driving sustained increases in pricing. Prices were mixed at best: down 3% on average, up a tick at the median, and flat in the price‑per‑square‑foot. We see the same thing in the yearlong trend, with the average down almost 2%, and the median and price‑per‑square‑foot mixed. We have been expecting meaningful appreciation in Putnam for some time now, and still believe that low levels of inventory and stable demand will eventually drive prices up.
Inventory. Inventory continued to tighten, falling over 12% and now down to the six‑month level that usually denotes a tightening seller’s market. This lack of available homes is what’s been restricting sales, since we don’t have enough “fuel for the fire” to keep the market going.
Negotiability. The negotiability indicators support the idea that a seller’s market is emerging, with the listing retention rate up just a tick and the days‑on‑market falling sharply. Homes in Putnam are now selling in about five months from listing to closing.
Condos. The impact of low inventory on the condo market was even more severe, with sales down almost 17%. In this case, though, prices were up sharply, rising 6% on average, almost 5% at the median, and over 1% in the price‑per‑square foot. For the year, though, both sales and prices are down.
Going forward, we believe that Putnam is struggling through some growing pains, but that it will soon start to show the same signs of life that we’re seeing in Westchester and the rest of the Hudson Valley. The fundamentals of the market are tremendous: inventory is low, rates are near historic lows, and prices are still at attractive 2004‑05 levels. We think that meaningful price appreciation in Putnam is just a matter of time.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Orange County Market Overview
The Orange County housing market surged again in the third quarter of 2017, with both sales and prices up while inventory continued to fall.
Sales. Orange sales were up yet again, rising over 6% from last year’s third quarter. Quarterly transactions have now gone up in 12 straight quarters and 21 out of the last 22. Indeed, for the rolling year, sales were up almost 10%, and the 3,722 single‑family sales were the highest total we have seen since the height of the last seller’s market.
Prices. These sustained levels of buyer demand are finally having a meaningful impact on pricing. Home prices rose again in the third quarter, up a tick on average and almost 5% at the median (although down slightly in the price‑per‑square‑foot). And home prices are now showing meaningful signs of appreciation over the longer‑term, with the rolling year prices up almost 4% on average, over 5% at the median, and almost 2% in the price‑per‑square foot.
Negotiability. The available inventory continues to tighten, down over 22% and now down to the six‑month level that starts to signal a seller’s market. Meanwhile, homes are selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, with the days‑on‑market falling and the listing retention rate rising. Homes are now selling in almost five months from listing to closing.
Condominiums. The condo market was also up sharply, continuing a welcome trend that we finally started to see this year. Sales were up almost 15%, and prices were up over 1% on average and almost 7% at the median. The rolling year pricing showed that this is now a longer‑term trend: up 4% on average, over 5% at the median, and over 3% in the price‑per‑square foot.
Going forward, we believe that the Orange County housing market is poised for a great year: demand is high, prices are still at attractive 2003‑04 levels, interest rates are at historic lows, and the economy is generally strong. With inventory continuing to decline, we expect to see meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017 and into 2018.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Rockland County Market Overview
Prices in the Rockland County housing market soared in the third quarter of 2017, even while a lack of inventory stifled sales growth.
Sales. After spiking at the beginning of the year, sales gave some of that growth back, dropping over 8% from the third quarter of last year. This was only the second time in the last four years that year‑on‑year sales have gone down. That said, sales were still up slightly for the year, marking the highest twelve‑month total in over 12 years.
Prices. These sustained increases in buyer demand had a dramatic impact on prices, which were up over 5% on average, almost 4% at the median, and almost 9% in the price‑per‑square foot. And we are continuing to see meaningful and sustainable price appreciation over the longer term, with the rolling year average price up almost 3%, the median up almost 4%, and the price‑per‑square‑foot up almost 5%. Rockland is now up over 14% from the bottom of the market in 2012.
Negotiability. Inventory continued to fall in the third quarter, depriving Rockland of the “fuel for the fire” that would drive more sales growth. The months of inventory fell over 14%, and is now consistently at that six‑month market that denotes a seller’s market. Similarly, the listing retention rate rose and the days‑on‑market fell sharply again, indicating that sellers are increasingly gaining negotiating leverage with buyers.
Condos. The Rockland condo market cooled a little in the third quarter, with sales up a tick and prices mixed. For the year, sales are up over 21%, and prices are showing the first signs of life in a decade. With inventory falling, we expect that prices will continue to rise.
Going forward, we expect that buyer demand in Rockland will continue to drive prices up and inventory down. With prices still at attractive 2004 levels, interest rates near historic lows, inventory falling, and the economy generally strengthening, we believe that sustained buyer demand will continue to drive meaningful price appreciation through the rest of 2017 and into next year.
To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.
