Third-Quarter 2017 Market Report: Dutchess County Market Overview

The Dutchess County housing market showed clear signs of an emerging seller’s market in the third quarter of 2017, with a lack of inventory constricting growth but driving prices up.

Sales. Dutchess sales were down again in the third quarter, more a reflection of falling inventory in the market than a decline in buyer demand. Sales were down almost 5% for the quarter and are now down over 2% for the rolling year. Dutchess definitely needs some “fuel for the fire” to accommodate strong buyer demand.

Prices. Home prices continued to show the effects of declining inventory coupled with strong demand, with pricing up over 3% on average, 5% at the median, but down almost 12% in the price‑per‑square foot. We can see the same story in the rolling year numbers, with the average price up 2% and the median up over 3%, indicating that Dutchess is moving into a sustained seller’s market.

Negotiability. Dutchess homes are continuing to sell more quickly and for closer to the asking price, reflecting the negotiating leverage that sellers are getting in this market.

Condominiums. The condo market was down after a spike in the second quarter, with sales falling almost 11%. Prices were also down for the quarter, even while the yearlong trend was mostly positive.

Going forward, we believe that the Dutchess market will finish the year strong. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near‑historically‑low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003‑04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year and into next year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on November 13, 2017 at 10:35 am
Vincent Abbatecola | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , ,

Third-Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley Market Overview

The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley surged again in the third quarter of 2017, with strong buyer demand driving meaningful price appreciation even while declining inventory stifled sales growth. With inventory rates continuing to fall, we expect this trend to continue through the rest of the year.

Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. Regional inventory was down almost 23%, and is now down to 6.1 months– right at the level that the industry considers a “balanced” market. But many of the individual counties in the region are now at‑or‑below six‑months’ worth of inventory, which usually signals a rising seller’s market: Westchester single family homes are now at 5.5, Putnam at 6.4, Rockland at 5.5, and Orange at 6.3.

The lack of inventory is stifling sales growth. Regional sales were down for the second straight quarter, falling over 5% from the third quarter of last year. Even though sales were up just a tick for the rolling year, we’re definitely seeing some pressure on sales growth from the lack of inventory on the market. Essentially, we need more “fuel for the fire.” That said, sales are now at levels we have not seen down since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005

These inventory levels are starting to drive meaningful price appreciation. The regional average sales price was up for the third quarter in a row, rising just about 1%. Most importantly, though, we’re starting to see long‑term meaningful price appreciation, with the average price up almost 3% for the rolling year. And quarterly average prices were up in almost every county in the region, rising 1% in Westchester, over 5% in Rockland, 1% in Orange, and over 3% in Dutchess (prices fell about 3% in Putnam).

Going forward, we expect that prices will continue to appreciate through the rest of the year. Demand is strong, bolstered by near‑historically‑low interest rates, prices that are still near 2003‑04 levels (without controlling for inflation), a generally strong economy, and sharply declining inventory. We will need fresh new listings to drive more sales growth, but we expect that we will continue to see price appreciation through a strong fall market and into 2018.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on November 12, 2017 at 4:50 pm
Vincent Abbatecola | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Dutchess County, New York

The Dutchess County housing market showed clear signs of an emerging seller’s market in the second quarter of 2017, with the first meaningful signs of price appreciation in years.

Sales. Dutchess sales were down a tick for the quarter, probably a reflection of falling inventory in the market. For the rolling year, sales are still up a tick, but Dutchess definitely needs some “fuel for the fire” to accommodate strong buyer demand.

Prices. Home prices showed the first signs of life in a long time, with pricing up across the board: rising almost 5% on average, 3% at the median, and over 8% in the price-per-square foot. We can see the same story in the rolling year numbers, indicating that Dutchess is moving into a sustained seller’s market.

Negotiability. Dutchess inventory declined sharply in the second quarter, down 51% from last year. This might be partly caused by a change in the way we are measuring Dutchess inventory, so we don’t know that the percentage change is reliable. But the prevailing months of inventory at 7.5 months does support the idea that we’re moving into a seller’s market.

Condominiums. The condo market was up sharply after a slow start to the year, with sales up almost 52% from the second quarter of last year. Similarly, prices were way up for the quarter, with meaningful appreciation for the rolling year. The condo market is in great shape right now.

Going forward, we still believe that the Dutchess market will have a strong summer. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near-historically-low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003-04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see meaningful price appreciation through the end of the year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on July 15, 2017 at 3:31 pm
Vincent Abbatecola | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , ,

Second Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley – Market Overview

The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley continued to show signs of meaningful price appreciation in the second quarter of 2017, with prices up in every county in the region. With inventory rates dropping, and demand strong, we expect this trend to continue through a robust Summer market and through the rest of 2017.

Inventory throughout the region continues to drop. Regional inventory was down almost 18%, and is now down to 7.1 months — right at the level that the industry considers a “balanced” market. But many of the individual counties in the region are now down around six months, moving into “seller’s market” territory.

The lack of inventory continues to stifle sales growth. Regional sales were down just a tick compared to the second quarter of last year, just barely breaking a 10-quarter streak of year-on-year sales growth. We noted in our last report that the pace of growth was slowing. Now, it has stalled, at least until we get more “fuel for the fire.” All that said, buyer demand is as strong as we’ve seen in over 10 years, with regional sales up 5% for the year and reaching the highest 12-month sales total since the height of the last seller’s market in 2005.

These inventory levels are starting to drive meaningful price appreciation. The regional average sales price was up over 6% for the quarter, following a similar 7% increase in the first quarter. After several years of slow declines, prices are now up over 1% for the rolling year. That may not seem like much, but it’s a sign of things to come. Indeed, average prices were up in every county in the region, rising over 7% in Westchester, over 6% in Putnam, over 1% in Rockland, 9% in Orange, and almost 5% in Dutchess. We should not be surprised — sales have been going up year after year, and it was only a matter of time before this type of demand drove some meaningful price appreciation.

Going forward, we expect that prices will continue to appreciate through the rest of the year. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2003-04 levels (without controlling for inflation), a generally strong economy, and sharply declining inventory. We will need fresh new listings to drive more sales growth, but we expect that we will continue to see price appreciation through a robust Summer market and throughout 2017.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on July 15, 2017 at 1:40 pm
Vincent Abbatecola | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report – Dutchess County, New York

DUTCHESS-NY_Q1-2017-QMRThe Dutchess County housing market struggled through the first quarter of 2017, with sales and prices down after a strong 2016. We believe that this is just a short-term retreat in what will be a strong year for the market.

Sales. Dutchess sales were surprisingly down in the first quarter. Transactions fell over 7%, the first time we have seen year-on-year sales go down in almost three years. For the year, sales are still up over 6%, but the current trend is a little perplexing given that most of the Hudson Valley has been up significantly.

Prices. Home prices were also down, falling about 2% on average and the median, and down almost 3% in the price-per-square foot. For the year, though, prices are still up, so the first quarter results might just be an anomalous blip in the data.

Negotiability. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, down almost 19% and now down to under 12 months of inventory. Although we are nowhere near the six-month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support future price appreciation. The other negotiability indicators suggest that homes were selling just a little more quickly and for closer to the asking price — which is what we would normally expect with a tightening market.

Condominiums. The condo market was also down, with sales falling almost 23% and average prices down. For the year, sales and prices are still up, so, again, we might be seeing a short-term blip in the data.

Going forward, we still believe that the Dutchess market will improve in 2017, and that these first quarter results are just a short-term stall. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near-historically-low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003-04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see rising sales and prices in the traditionally robust Spring market.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on April 26, 2017 at 4:57 pm
James Troia | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , ,

First Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Report: Westchester & Hudson Valley – Market Overview

New-York-OVERVIEW_Q1-2017-QMRThe regional housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley started to show the first signs of meaningful price appreciation in the first quarter of 2017, with prices up in most of the counties. Moreover, with inventory rates dropping, we expect this trend to continue through a robust Spring market and for the rest of 2017.

Inventory throughout the region continues to drop. Regional inventory fell almost 26%, and is now down to 6.3 months–right at the level that the industry considers a “balanced” market. But many of the individual counties in the region are now well below six months, moving into “seller’s market” territory. For example, Westchester is now down to 5.0 months for single-family homes, 4.6 months for coops, and 3.2 months for condos. Indeed, outside of Dutchess County, every single market segment in every county in the region is at or below 6.1 months of inventory.

The lack of inventory is continuing to stifle sales growth. Regional sales were up 5% from the first quarter of last year, marking 10 straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. But that 5% increase was the smallest in that 10-quarter streak, indicating that the pace of growth is slowing due to the lack of inventory. Essentially, the market is capable of even greater sales growth, but only if it gets more “fuel for the fire.” All that said, buyer demand is as strong as we’ve seen in over 10 years, with regional sales up 11% for the year and reaching the highest 12-month sales total since the third quarter of 2005 — the height of the last seller’s market.

High demand and low inventory is starting to drive modest-but-meaningful price appreciation. In our last Report, we said that we were “about to witness ‘Economics 101’ in action,” explaining that rising demand and falling supply were poised to drive prices up. Well, from that perspective, we had a “textbook” result in the first quarter, with the regional average sales price up over 7% from the first quarter of last year.

Moreover, average prices spiked in several counties in the region, rising almost 7% in Westchester, 5% in Rockland, and 7% in Orange. Prices were down in Putnam and Dutchess, but even in those counties, the yearlong trend was relatively promising. Essentially, the market is capable of even greater sales growth, but only if it gets more “fuel for the fire.”

Going forward, expect big things for this market in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2003-04 levels (without controlling for inflation), a generally strong economy, and sharply declining inventory. Given these conditions, we expect that prices will continue to go up in a robust Spring market and throughout 2017.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on April 25, 2017 at 1:33 pm
James Troia | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 – Dutchess County, New York

unnamedThe Dutchess County housing market finished strong in the fourth quarter of 2016, with a sustained increase in sales along with the largest yearly price appreciation in over ten years.

Sales. Dutchess single-family home sales were up again in the fourth quarter, rising over 7% from last year and marking the ninth quarter in a row with year-on-year sales increases. And for the calendar year, sales were up almost 16%, rising to the highest yearly total that we’ve seen since 2005 and up 73% from the 2011 bottom.

Prices. This sustained increase in sales activity is finally having its expected impact on pricing, with single-family home pricing up just a tick for the quarter. For the year, though, prices were up almost 3% on average and 2% at the median. That may not seem like much, but it was the highest price appreciation that we’ve seen in a calendar year since 2006. Prices are still at 200304 levels (without controlling for inflation), but they are moving in a positive direction.

Negotiability. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down to 11.5 months of active single-family listings. Although we are nowhere near the six-month level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support further price appreciation. The other negotiability indicators were mixed, with days on market flat while listing retention rose.

Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising almost 16% but prices falling a bit after a spike in the third quarter. For the year, condo sales are up almost 17%, and pricing is up sharply both on average and at the median.

Going forward, Dutchess is looking forward to a promising 2017. With tightening inventory, a stable economy, near-historically low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2003-04 levels, Dutchess is likely to see meaningful price appreciation through next year.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on January 11, 2017 at 4:01 pm
James Troia | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , ,

Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley

unnamedThe story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.

Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.

The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.

Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.

Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on January 9, 2017 at 1:25 pm
James Troia | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty Quarterly Market Report For 2016Q4 Overall: Westchester and Hudson Valley

The story of the housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at the end of 2016 was all about inventory. The number of homes on the market continues to decline, which is already negatively impacting the rate of sales growth, but is likely to positively impact price appreciation in 2017.

Inventory throughout the region continues to fall. As we have explained before in the Rand Report, we measure the “months of inventory” by looking at the number of available homes on the market, and then calculating how long it would take to sell them all at the current rate of absorption. In the industry, we consider anything below six months of inventory to be a signal of a tightening market that will tend to drive prices up. So it’s notable that region inventory at the end of 2016 was down to 6.2 months. But the decline was more striking if you look at the individual counties, with inventory down to 3.8 months in Westchester, 5.0 in Putnam, 4.9 in Rockland, and 6.4 in Orange. Indeed, if you take Dutchess (which is still in the double digits) out of the calculation, the overall regional average is down to 4.2 months of inventory. That’s extraordinarily low, especially when you consider that regional inventory was over 10 months just two years ago.

The lack of inventory is starting to have an impact on sales. Sales are still relatively strong, but the pace of growth is slowing. Single-family transactions were up for the region, rising 6% from the fourth quarter of last year, which now marks nine straight quarters of year-on-year sales growth. And regional sales were up sharply for the calendar year, rising over 14% from 2015 and crossing over the 15,000 transaction mark for the first time since 2005. Indeed, yearly sales are now up 78% from the market bottom in 2011. But we see some troubling signs. For example, that 6% rise in sales from last year is the smallest year-on-year sales increase in eight quarters. Moreover, although regional sales were up, individual counties were flat or down: Westchester was up only 1.4%, and Rockland was down 3.6%. Essentially, the market needs more fuel for the fire — without more listings on the market, we are likely to see sales flatten or even decline in 2017.

Prices continue to struggle throughout the region. The regional average sales price was down just a tick for the quarter, but fell almost 4% for the calendar year. How can that be? We are seeing sustained buyer demand coupled with declining inventory over the past few years, and sales totals that approach the tail end of the last seller’s market. Basic economics tells us that increasing demand and falling supply should drive prices up. And, well, they will. It’s just a matter of time. At some point soon, these high levels of buyer demand, along with the low levels of inventory, will start creating the kind of multiple offer situations and bidding wars that will drive prices up. In turn, as prices go up, homeowners watching and waiting from the sidelines will be tempted into the market, which will moderate the potential surge in price appreciation. In other words, we’re about the witness “Economics 101” in action.

Going forward, we remain confident that the market conditions are ripe for meaningful price appreciation in 2017. Demand is strong, bolstered by near-historically-low interest rates, prices that are still near 2004-05 levels (without controlling for inflation), and a generally strong economy. And supply is tight, at least until some price appreciation brings more sellers into the market. So in the short term, we might see some declines in home sales off the highs set in 2016. But over time, as high-demand-and-short-supply starts driving prices up, inventory will come back. And we will eventually see the return of sales growth, this time coupled with meaningful price appreciation.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate® – Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on January 9, 2017 at 12:39 pm
Vincent Abbatecola | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Real Estate Market Report: Third Quarter 2016 – Dutchess County, New York

dutchess-bhg_ny-west-hv_q3-2016-qmr-digitalThe Dutchess County housing market continued to strengthen in the third quarter of 2016, with a moderate increase in sales coupled with an eyeopening spike in pricing.

Sales. Dutchess singlefamily home sales were up again in the third quarter, rising 8% from last year. This marked the eighth quarter in a row with yearonyear sales increases, closing a rolling year where sales were up over 17%. With over 2,400 sales over the past 12 months, Dutchess is now closing homes at a rate that rivals what we saw during the last seller’s market.

Prices. This sustained increase in sales activity is finally having its expected impact on pricing. Singlefamily home prices spiked in the third quarter, rising an eyepopping 9% on average. That’s not a sustainable increase, and is likely due to a few outliers in the data, especially when you see that the median and pricepersquare foot metrics were up a more modest 2%. But even so, the rolling year average sales price increase of 4%, and the median price increase of 3%, are both positive indicators of where this market is likely going.

Negotiability. Dutchess inventory continues to decline, now down over 26% to 14.1 months of active singlefamily listings. Although we are nowhere near the sixmonth level of inventory that usually signals a “seller’s market,” we are certainly seeing some tightening that could support further price appreciation. The other negotiability indicators – daysonmarket and listing retention – were mixed.

Condominiums. The condo market was also up, with sales rising almost 18% and prices also spiking. For the year, condo sales are up 21%, and pricing is up across the board, although the 9% increase in the average price is probably not sustainable.

Going forward, we continue to believe that Dutchess is on the precipice of meaningful price appreciation. With a stable economy, low interest rates, and homes still priced at appealing 2004 levels (without even controlling for inflation), we believe that Dutchess will finish the year strong and see even better days in 2017.

To learn more about Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty, visit their website and Facebook page, and make sure to “Like” their page. You can also follow them on Twitter.

Posted on October 11, 2016 at 11:58 am
James Troia | Category: Rand Country Blog | Tagged , , , , , ,